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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: XRAY; XLU
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 06/26/2007
MTOX (Medtox Scientific--$28.79; +1.69; no options): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtox.html
EARNINGS: 5-3-07
STATUS: Breakout test. MTOX broke higher from a short yet nicely formed double bottom base. Excellent volume as it surges higher and then used the recent selling to test the move, coming back to the 10 day EMA (27.24) to test on low volume. Bounced Tuesday on rising trade, continuing the break higher. Excellent money flow is surging higher. A leader in its sector and showing excellent action in a weak market.
Volume: 259.874K Avg Volume: 279.472K
BUY POINT: $29.05 Volume=400K Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mtox.html
Play Date: 06/26/2007
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Product Dev.--$38.01; +0.63; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-17-07
STATUS: Test breakout. A big rangy 12 month double bottom with handle broke higher last week on strong, above average volume, clearing the October, April and May highs at 37. That was a clean, clear break above resistance, taking PPDI close to 39 on the high. It has used this selling to come back to test, holding the 10 day EMA (37.32) on the low and then bouncing Tuesday on rising volume, just missing average. This base started after a good run to a new high, and it has given PPDI the foundation to start another new run. Excellent money flow is leading the way higher. Like the nice test of near support and the bounce on volume. Love to play the test of the breakout, catching the stock as it rebounds on stronger volume. Looks as if PPDI fills the prescription.
Volume: 754.204K Avg Volume: 750.098K
BUY POINT: $38.45 Volume=1M Target=$44.45 Stop=$36.68
POSITION: PJQ JU - Oct. $37.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ppdi.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 06/26/2007
ALJ (Alon USA Energy--$43.45; -1.04; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alj.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-10-07
STATUS: Breakout test. ALJ is making the second test of the 18 day EMA (42.68) after the early June breakout from its 10 month double bottom with handle base. Excellent volume on the breaks higher shows plenty of buyers as it made the moves. It used the recent market selling to come back and test the near support, fading on very low volume. Basically showing no ill effects, just consolidating the breakout. A strong stock will make 4 to 5 bounces up off the 10 and 18 day EMA after a breakout, and this will be its second. That leaves plenty of upside for ALJ once this little bout of selling runs its course.
Volume: 411.2K Avg Volume: 461.908K
BUY POINT: $44.88 Volume=550K Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.48
POSITION: ALJ IH - Sept. $40c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/alj.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BHI: Got itself in trouble with a break below the 18 day EMA Tuesday.
BIDU: Forecast in June. Still in a great uptrend despite the market selling.
CHE: Forecast mid-June. Nothing in mid-June and CHE has struggled, falling below the low in the 6 month lateral range.
CHTT: Forecast third week of July. Working laterally in the range above the 50 day EMA.
CLB: Forecast third week of July. Cored back down to the 50 day EMA.
CLF: Researching the date. Still holding the 50 day EMA
CNQ: Looked for a split in mid-May but it was not coming. Tumbled to the 50 day EMA where it has to make a stand.
CTRP: Researching next date as no announcement with its strong earnings.
CVX: Forecast mid-July
DVN: Forecast last week of June. Tough week, falling below the 50 day EMA in a nasty plunge.
GSOL: Researching the date.
HURN: Wildcard. Researching date. Nice test of the breakout.
MA: Researching the next date. Testing the 10 day EMA.
MBT: Tentatively forecast third week of July
NOV: Forecast late July. Deeper test to the 18 day EMA
OSK: Forecast last week of July, first week of August. Lurking below the 18 day EMA the past two sessions.
RIMM: No split in early June. Fell through the 18 day EMA ahead of the iPhone release.
RL: No announcement with earnings.
SSYS: Forecast third week of July. Trying to recover the 50 day EMA
SU: Forecast third week of July. Not giving us a buy as it heads to the 50 day EMA
XTO: Forecast early August
VIP: Researching date.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/26/2007
DE (Deere & Co.--$120.57; -2.22; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/de.html
EARNINGS: 8-15-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. DE fell to the 18 day EMA (120.39) on the Tuesday close, testing the breakout last week from a short 7 week double bottom with handle base that formed at the 50 day EMA (117). Nice base on base pattern as the current base follows a 11 week double bottom. Like these because they wring out more of the sellers. Want to see some good volume as DE makes the rebound through the buy point.
Volume: 2.242M Avg Volume: 2.795M
BUY POINT: $122.25 Volume=4M Target=$139.95 Stop=$119.55
POSITION: DE ID - Sept. $120c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/de.html
Play Date: 06/26/2007
IBM (International Business Machines--$105.33; +0.23; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-17-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. IBM has used the market chop this month to form an interesting 6 week pattern that used the 50 day EMA (103) as support on the low. This base is consolidating the late April (earnings) breakout from a 15 week base. Really like how IBM has weathered the selling, going about its own business and setting up the next breakout move.
Volume: 5.23M Avg Volume: 7.678M
BUY POINT: $106.89 Volume=12M Target=$119.95 Stop=$103.95
POSITION: IBM JA - Oct. $105c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ibm.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/25/2007
CVX (Chevron-Texaco--$82.70; -0.25; optionable): Major oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-27-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Holding up very well in the selling, pushing toward the next breakout on strong volume though it fell off by the close. Nice pattern and nice backing ready to send it higher once more. To recap: After a high volume selling session last Wednesday CVX bounced right back Monday with stronger volume as it bounced back. Nice little 6 week base has formed along the 18 day EMA, setting CVX up for the next upside break and run higher. This short base is consolidating the early April breakout from a 14 week double bottom base. Looking for volume to remain strong as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 13.487M Avg Volume: 9.149M
BUY POINT: $83.78 Volume=10M Target=$99.95 Stop=$81.68
POSITION: CVX IP - Sept. $80c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cvx.html
Play Date: 06/25/2007
MBT (Mobile Telesys--$59.21; -0.29; optionable): Wireless telecom in Russia
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-31-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Excellent test, showing a nice doji with tail Tuesday at the 10 day EMA (59.14). That kind of test lower and recovery acts as the shakeout ahead of the breakout. Excellent pattern that used the selling to finish its base. Now it looks ready. To recap: Low volume the past week as MBT works laterally, forming the handle (the shakeout prior to the breakout) from an 11 week base that formed roughly using the 50 day EMA as support. This base is setting MBT up for the breakout to a new all-time high. Very solid leader in the telecom space in very good position for the breakout move.
Volume: 1.209M Avg Volume: 1.59M
BUY POINT: $61.41 Volume=2.4M Target=$71.50 Stop=$58.45
POSITION: MBT IL - Sept. $60c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mbt.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/16/2007
GES (Guess? Inc.--$47.27; -0.18; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ges.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Excellent action, using the market selling to test the strong early June break higher that took it to 50. Nice low volume test that saw some strong volume Friday (though rebalance volume). Another stock that the selling is not effecting, just setting it up for the next break higher to continue the breakout move. Nice break from a 14 week flat base and this first test is our favorite entry point. Just waiting for it to show us the move.
Volume: 1.229M Avg Volume: 1.414M
BUY POINT: $48.08 Volume=2.2M Target=$57.75 Stop=$46.95
POSITION: GES IW - Sept. $47.50c (65 delta) or GES IJ - Sept. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ges.html
Play Date: 06/21/2007
GME (Gamestop--$39.51; -0.47; optionable): Electronic games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-23-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Still testing the 10 day EMA (39.25) on some rising, above average volume Tuesday. Not great to see the higher volume, but still a very nice test of the breakout that is setting up the next run higher. Super action, super strong. To recap: GME is testing near support once again, tapping at the 10 day EMA last Thursday low then bouncing smartly on rising, average volume. This is one of the periodic tests of the near support it makes as it trends higher after testing the 50 day EMA in mid-May. We are looking for a couple more of these bounces on this run. Showing excellent price/volume action (i.e. higher volume on the upside sessions, lower volume on the down sessions), showing the buyers are in control. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 2.724M Avg Volume: 2.301M
BUY POINT: $40.57 Volume=2.5M Target=$48.75 Stop=$38.57
POSITION: GME JH - Oct. $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gme.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/23/2007
CIEN (Ciena--$35.01; -0.02; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cien.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-31-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Nice tight doji at the 10 day EMA (34.83) on low volume as CIEN continues its very nice test of the break higher last week. Holding up extremely well in the selling and it is ready to make the move. It just has to show us the higher volume bounce off this support. To recap: Volume surged in late May on the earnings announcement and gapped CIEN higher. It spent this month testing that move, working laterally over the 10 day EMA on mostly lower, below average volume. That changed last Thursday as CIEN broke higher from the handle on strong trade. Friday it faded back on lower trade, easily holding above the 10 day EMA. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price, and this pullback looks as if it is going to give us an entry into this breakout move. Nice pattern as this tech boom winner comes back to life.
Volume: 2.653M Avg Volume: 3.68M
BUY POINT: $36.08 Volume=6M Target=$43.45 Stop=$34.57
POSITION: EUG JG - Oct. $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cien.html
Play Date: 06/23/2007
VCLK (Valueclick--$29.00; +0.34; optionable): Internet advertising services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vclk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Volume jumped to the best level in over a week (though still below average) as VCLK showed a doji at the 90 day SMA where it has camped the past two weeks, forming a short double bottom. Looking for volume to continue higher as VCLK makes the next break higher off this nice test of support. To recap: VCLK is trying to form the second leg to a short double bottom at the 90 day SMA (28.54). VCLK is a market leader that enjoyed a great run into May when it spiked higher on strong volume. That run emptied the gas tank and it had to test. It has held the 90 day SMA just as it did in May, and we really like the set up for a break higher and run toward that prior high at 36. Very low volume on this pullback, showing no real dumping. Looking for the volume to kick up as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 2.743M Avg Volume: 3.119M
BUY POINT: $30.45 Volume=4.5M Target=$36.55 Stop=$28.45
POSITION: QCS IF - Sept. $30c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vclk.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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