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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ARRS; BUCY; CMI; CPHD; FCX; GME; GRMN; GSOL; ICE; ININ; RIG; RL; SNDA; XTO
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/27/2007
DLTR (Dollar Tree--$44.42; +1.43; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dltr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-30-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After a solid run up the 10 and 18 day EMA (now at 42.93), DLTR came back for a test of the 50 day EMA (41.52). It broke out in February and started that strong run, banking us a lot of nice gain on the way. After several rotations up the 18 day EMA it needed a deeper test, and it makde that move this month. Volume jumped the past week as DLTR tested and then moved off the 50 day EMA. Ready to move in as DLTR continues the break higher and starts a new run.
Volume: 2.486M Avg Volume: 1.286M
BUY POINT: $44.85 Volume=1.4M Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.77
POSITION: DQO KV - Nov. $42.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dltr.html
Play Date: 06/27/2007
HANS (Hansen Natural--$43.32; +0.38; optionable): Monster drinks, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hans.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-07
STATUS: Test breakout. HANS broke higher in two weeks back with a high volume gap, clearing its 18 week ascending base. Very nice pattern that formed using the 50 day EMA (40.35) as support. It has come back to test the 18 day EMA (42.29) on lower volume. Nice test and hold, and now we are looking for the break higher on a jump in volume once again. HANS was a big winner for us in 2005 and 2006, and after that long run it needed to rest and get back on track. This base is part of much larger 14 month pattern that has digested all of those prior gains. Now we just patiently wait for it to break higher once more to show us the buyers are still interested.
Volume: 1.263M Avg Volume: 1.774M
BUY POINT: $44.44 Volume=2.1M Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.11
POSITION: QHO LI - Dec. $45c (51 delta, 146 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hans.html
Play Date: 06/27/2007
MFE (Network Associates--$35.44; +0.63; optionable): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mfe.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Test the 50 day EMA. MFE is coming off the 50 day EMA (33.86) on strong volume after making the second test from the late April break higher from a 6 month flat base. Strong volume on the beak higher, low volume on the test, and now volume is picking back up again as it renews the run. Strong money flow is moving higher ahead of price. Ready to move in as MFE secures a new breakout move.
Volume: 2.99M Avg Volume: 1.652M
BUY POINT: $35.75 Volume=2M Target=$40.95 Stop=$34.89
POSITION: MFE IG - Sept. $35c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mfe.html
Play Date: 06/27/2007
WFR (Memc Electronic--$61.45; +3.77; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. WFR broke higher off the 50 day EMA (58.43) on rising, average volume. This move is starting it toward the break over the May and early June highs, and that will give us the buy point. Looking for some more volume as it makes the break. WFR was a big winner for us to start the year, and after this base we are looking for WFR to deliver some more.
Volume: 6.673M Avg Volume: 5.887M
BUY POINT: $62.05 Volume=8.2M Target=$71.95 Stop=$56.96
POSITION: WFR JL - Oct. $60c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wfr.html
CURRENT PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/26/2007
ARD (Arena Resources--$57.27; +2.02; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ard.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-19-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice price action and huge volume on Wednesday as ARD bounced off the 10 day EMA (55.34). It is ready to make the next break higher. To recap: ARD has used the market selling to pullback modestly to test the 10 day EMA. Nice test after a high volume breakout off the 50 day EMA tow weeks back that took it out of a 6.5 month ascending base and to a new all-time high. Hardly giving up any ground on the test and set up in excellent position to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 422.2K Avg Volume: 281.344K
BUY POINT: $57.48 Volume=430K Target=$66.50 Stop=$54.72
POSITION: ARD JK - Oct. $55c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ard.html
Play Date: 06/21/2007
GME (Gamestop--$40.38; +0.87; optionable): Electronic game stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-23-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. GME refused to give up any ground on this lateral move and now the 10 day EMA (39.46) has moved up below it. Primed to continue the breakout run here. To recap: GME is testing its last break higher two weeks back, holding the 10 day EMA as it works laterally setting up the next move. This is one of the periodic tests of the near support it makes as it trends higher after testing the 50 day EMA in mid-May. We are looking for a couple more of these bounces on this run. Showing excellent price/volume action (i.e. higher volume on the upside sessions, lower volume on the down sessions), showing the buyers are in control. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 2.006M Avg Volume: 2.334M
BUY POINT: $40.57 Volume=2.5M Target=$48.75 Stop=$38.57
POSITION: GME JH - Oct. $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gme.html
Play Date: 06/25/2007
ICON (Iconix Brand Group--$22.52; +0.27; optionable): Branded apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icon.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Still working laterally over the 18 day EMA on below average volume, setting up for the breakout move. To recap: Taking another look at ICON as it works laterally in the three week handle to its 17 week base that formed using the 90 day SMA (20.97) as support. Nice set up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Solid 5 to 2 accumulation in the pattern (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying during the consolidation that is setting up the breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 760.733K Avg Volume: 1.067M
BUY POINT: $23.08 Volume=1.5M Target=$27.75 Stop=$21.74
POSITION: QIA KX - Nov. $22.50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/icon.html
Play Date: 06/23/2007
MTL (Mechel Steel Group--$38.71; +1.68; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtl.html
EARNINGS: Late August
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice ounce off the 18 day EMA (36.98) Wednesday as it looks as if MTL has completed the pullback to test its breakout move. Not much volume Wednesday, but there was great trade on the initial breakout. Just need a bit more volume as it moves higher. To recap: MTL broke sharply higher mid-month, surging out of a 10 week ascending base (calling it that because it doesn't look like much of a 'pattern' of any sort). Strong, strong volume on the break higher from the last part of the base, a 5 week double bottom at the 90 day SMA. It spent the past week testing that move on lower volume, then showing strong volume Thursday as it tapped the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounded positive. Looking for it to continue the bounce higher from here given the strong volume on the test. Solid stock both in technical pattern and the earnings growth which are some of the tops in the market.
Volume: 302.6K Avg Volume: 383.645K
BUY POINT: $38.76 Volume=500K Target=$46.50 Stop=$36.77
POSITION: MTL JG - Oct. $35c (70 delta, 310 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mtl.html
Play Date: 06/23/2007
PCLN (Priceline.com--$64.86; +0.70; optionable): Online hotel, car travel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-8-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. PCLN is still testing the 18 day EMA (63.38), coming back after breaking higher two weeks back and clearing a 6 week base as it continues its move higher. Money flow is running higher ahead of price and with a bit of volume PCLN is ready to follow it. Solid leader with very good earnings growth rates.
Volume: 552.329K Avg Volume: 1.008M
BUY POINT: $65.08 Volume=1.4M Target=$74.95 Stop=$62.78
POSITION: PUZ JM - Oct. $65c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pcln.html
Play Date: 06/25/2007
RATE (Bankrate--$48.83; +1.14; optionable): Online banking services and products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rate.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Needs a bit more volume with this bounce off the 18 day EMA (46.94) on Wednesday. Looking very good on the test, just more trade please. That will make this move rate. To recap: RATE blasted higher three weeks back, surging out of an 18 week cup with handle base, rallying on strong volume. It peaked at 51.32 last week and has tested back. Monday it undercut the 10 day EMA, tapping at the 18 day EMA on the low. It rebounded sharply on a nice jump in volume that moved back to average. Money flow is still running higher ahead of price. Showing a lot of buy side strength and looking to move in again as RATE makes the break higher.
Volume: 250.42K Avg Volume: 464.021K
BUY POINT: $49.78 Volume=741K Target=$57.45 Stop=$47.58
POSITION: QIB KJ - Nov. $50c (48 delta) or QIB HI - Aug. $45c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rate.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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