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Begin part 3 of 3
We apologize for the late delivery tonight and of late. We have been battling illness here. Thank you.
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: BIDU; CMI; FLIR; GSOL; MTOX; RIMM; WNR
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 06/28/2007
CALM (Cal-Maine Foods--$16.10; +0.29; optionable): Farm products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/calm.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Another stock that broke higher in mid-June, clearing a 16 week cup with handle base that consolidated a strong 6 point run. Excellent break higher on strong volume, followed by a two week lateral move. Broke higher again Thursday on strong volume though it closed well off the high. Excellent action and ready for the next break higher.
Volume: 508.586K Avg Volume: 208.14K
BUY POINT: $16.29 Volume=250K Target=$19.55 Stop=$15.22
POSITION: QKM KC - Nov. $15c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/calm.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 06/28/2007
WFR (Memc Electronic--$61.15; -0.30; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Wednesday WFR broke higher off the 50 day EMA (58.43) on rising, average volume. This move is starting it toward the break over the May and early June highs, and that will give us the buy point. Looking for some more volume as it makes the break. WFR was a big winner for us to start the year, and after this base we are looking for WFR to deliver some more. Thursday it faded back on low, below average volume, but it held most of the gain. Just going to wait for it to set back up and continue higher.
Volume: 4.627M Avg Volume: 5.887M
BUY POINT: $62.05 Volume=8.2M Target=$71.95 Stop=$56.96
POSITION: WFR JL - Oct. $60c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BIDU: Forecast in June. Strong break higher after the lateral consolidation!
CHE: Forecast mid-June. Nothing in mid-June. Tapped the 50 day EMA this week and bounced.
CHTT: Forecast third week of July. Getting interesting here with the bounce off the 50 day EMA
CLB: Forecast third week of July. Raised its guidance and blasted higher!
CLF: Researching the date. Still holding the 50 day EMA and getting very interesting
CNQ: Looked for a split in mid-May but it was not coming. Tumbled to the 50 day EMA where it trying to make a stand.
CTRP: Researching next date as no announcement with its strong earnings.
CVX: Forecast mid-July
DE: Forecast late August
GSOL: Researching the date.
HURN: Wildcard. Researching date. Trying to get a move on again
MA: Researching the next date. Testing the 10 day EMA.
MBT: Tentatively forecast third week of July
NOV: Forecast late July. Has held the 18 day EMA
OSK: Forecast last week of July, first week of August. Fell to the 50 day EMA and bounced.
RIMM: We knew we were in this one for a reason. Announced a 3:1 after the close and was trading at 193!
RL: No announcement with earnings.
SSYS: Forecast third week of July. Trying to recover the 50 day EMA
SU: Forecast third week of July. Bounced off the 50 day EMA but has more work to do
XTO: Forecast early August
VIP: Researching date.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/28/2007
CMTL (Comtech Telecom--$46.49; +2.00; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmtl.html
EARNINGS: 6-6-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Strong volume Thursday as CMTL broke higher out of a short 5 week pattern acting to consolidate the early May breakout from a 21 week cup with handle pattern. Excellent leader with strong fundamentals growth rates to match its pattern that is taking it to a new high. Ready to move in as it continues higher and then on the test. Very nice leader making its move.
Volume: 1.018M Avg Volume: 427.943K
BUY POINT: $46.65 Volume=450K Target=$53.95 Stop=$43.95
POSITION: CQH JI - Oct. $45c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmtl.html
Play Date: 06/28/2007
HRS (Harris Corp.--$54.62; +1.15; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hrs.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. HRS blasted higher just over a week back, clearing its 19 week double bottom base on a shot of strong volume. It has come back to test the past week, holding just over the 18 day EMA (53.01) as it made the test, then bouncing Thursday. Looking for a bit more volume as it continues the move, but a solid leader forging into new high territory.
Volume: 994.77K Avg Volume: 1.116M
BUY POINT: $54.85 Volume=1.2M Target=$63.00 Stop=$52.95
POSITION: HRS KK - Nov. $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hrs.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/16/2007
CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs--$76.55; +0.02; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clf.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Still in the test of the 50 day EMA (75.37) as it continues its consolidation of the strong October to May run. It dipped below the 50 day Wednesday but then rebounded on strong, above average volume. Being patient and waiting for CLF to show us the break higher to give us the buy point.
Volume: 1.3M Avg Volume: 1.419M
BUY POINT: $80.22 Volume=2.4M Target=$94.95 Stop=$76.88
POSITION: CLF JP - Oct. $80c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/clf.html
Play Date: 06/27/2007
DLTR (Dollar Tree--$44.33; -0.09; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dltr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-30-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Took the day off on lower volume Thursday after that strong move higher midweek. After this pause DLTR will be ready for the buy. To recap: After a solid run up the 10 and 18 day EMA (now at 42.93), DLTR came back for a test of the 50 day EMA (41.52). It broke out in February and started that strong run, banking us a lot of nice gain on the way. After several rotations up the 18 day EMA it needed a deeper test, and it made that move this month. Volume jumped the past week as DLTR tested and then moved off the 50 day EMA. Ready to move in as DLTR continues the break higher and starts a new run.
Volume: 1.347M Avg Volume: 1.286M
BUY POINT: $44.85 Volume=1.4M Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.77
POSITION: DQO KV - Nov. $42.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dltr.html
Play Date: 06/26/2007
IBM (International Business Machines--$105.95; +0.52; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-17-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Good price action Thursday but no volume yet. Still a very nice looking pattern that is ready to make the break higher. To recap: IBM has used the market chop this month to form an interesting 6 week pattern that used the 50 day EMA (103) as support on the low. This base is consolidating the late April (earnings) breakout from a 15 week base. Really like how IBM has weathered the selling, going about its own business and setting up the next breakout move.
Volume: 5.431M Avg Volume: 7.657M
BUY POINT: $106.89 Volume=12M Target=$119.95 Stop=$103.95
POSITION: IBM JA - Oct. $105c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ibm.html
Play Date: 06/25/2007
MBT (Mobile Telesys--$59.71; -0.43; optionable): Wireless telecom in Russia
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-31-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in that nice test at the 10 day EMA (59.39) as MBT continues finishing the handle and readies for the breakout. Very nice action and it is just a matter of waiting for the breakout move. To recap: Low volume the past week as MBT works laterally, forming the handle (the shakeout prior to the breakout) from an 11 week base that formed roughly using the 50 day EMA as support. This base is setting MBT up for the breakout to a new all-time high. Very solid leader in the telecom space in very good position for the breakout move.
Volume: 1.17M Avg Volume: 1.585M
BUY POINT: $61.41 Volume=2.4M Target=$71.50 Stop=$58.45
POSITION: MBT IL - Sept. $60c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mbt.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/16/2007
GES (Guess? Inc.--$48.53; +0.47; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ges.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Low volume persists as GES holds the 18 day EMA, setting up for the next break higher. Very nice action, just need to add volume to show us the break higher and take the guesswork out of it. To recap: Excellent action, using the market selling to test the strong early June break higher that took it to 50. Nice low volume test that saw some strong volume Friday (though rebalance volume). Another stock that the selling is not effecting, just setting it up for the next break higher to continue the breakout move. Nice break from a 14 week flat base and this first test is our favorite entry point. Just waiting for it to show us the move.
Volume: 981.1K Avg Volume: 1.417M
BUY POINT: $48.08 Volume=2.2M Target=$57.75 Stop=$46.95
POSITION: GES IW - Sept. $47.50c (65 delta) or GES IJ - Sept. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ges.html
Play Date: 06/21/2007
GME (Gamestop--$39.92; -0.46; optionable): Electronic game stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-23-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Volume moved up to average Thursday as GME tested lower and rebounded, holding the tight lateral move as the 10 day EMA (39.54) rises to meet it. Looks very good and just waiting for GME to get back into the game and show us the breakout. To recap: GME is testing its last break higher two weeks back, holding the 10 day EMA as it works laterally setting up the next move. This is one of the periodic tests of the near support it makes as it trends higher after testing the 50 day EMA in mid-May. We are looking for a couple more of these bounces on this run. Showing excellent price/volume action (i.e. higher volume on the upside sessions, lower volume on the down sessions), showing the buyers are in control. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 2.271M Avg Volume: 2.309M
BUY POINT: $40.57 Volume=2.5M Target=$48.75 Stop=$38.57
POSITION: GME JH - Oct. $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gme.html
Play Date: 06/27/2007
HANS (Hansen Natural--$43.45; +0.13; optionable): Monster drinks, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hans.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Showing a doji at the 10 day EMA (43.21), still setting up for the next break higher. Just have to wait for it, i.e. let it come to us. To recap: HANS broke higher in two weeks back with a high volume gap, clearing its 18 week ascending base. Very nice pattern that formed using the 50 day EMA (40.35) as support. It has come back to test the 18 day EMA (42.29) on lower volume. Nice test and hold, and now we are looking for the break higher on a jump in volume once again. HANS was a big winner for us in 2005 and 2006, and after that long run it needed to rest and get back on track. This base is part of much larger 14 month pattern that has digested all of those prior gains. Now we just patiently wait for it to break higher once more to show us the buyers are still interested.
Volume: 1.457M Avg Volume: 1.784M
BUY POINT: $44.44 Volume=2.1M Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.11
POSITION: QHO LI - Dec. $45c (51 delta, 146 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hans.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/27/2007
PCLN (Priceline.com--$64.27; -0.59; optionable): Online hotel, car travel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-8-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Testing the 10 day EMA (64.30) Thursday on some very low volume as PCLN tests, still setting up the next break higher after clearing its base last week. Set up very nicely. To recap: PCLN is testing the last break higher in its continuing run, coming back to the 18 day EMA (63.38) and holding the breakout from its 6 week ascending base. Money flow is running higher ahead of price and with a bit of volume PCLN is ready to follow it. Solid leader with very good earnings growth rates.
Volume: 535.627K Avg Volume: 1.026M
BUY POINT: $65.08 Volume=1.4M Target=$74.95 Stop=$62.78
POSITION: PUZ JM - Oct. $65c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcln.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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