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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BCSI; BIDU; EDU; PCLN; SNDA; TRA; WNR
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/30/2007
AAPL (Apple Computer--$122.04; +1.48; optionable): iPhones, iPods, iMacs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: Ascending base. After the late April breakout form a 5 month base AAPL ran sharply higher in May and early June ahead of its iPhone release. Then it peaked and started to consolidate. It did not give up a lot of ground, coming back to the 18 day EMA (120), using that level as support as it worked laterally, making higher lows. We are watching to see if AAPL holds this near support and then shows us the break higher on strong trade.
Volume: 40.637M Avg Volume: 30.453M
BUY POINT: $124.25 Volume=45M Target=$139.95 Stop=$120.55
POSITION: APV JE - Oct. $125c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/aapl.html
Play Date: 06/30/2007
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$78.63; +2.58; optionable): Chinese travel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-16-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CTRP is on quite a run; it has been since it went public. Friday it broke higher on a strong shot of above average volume, the best traded in two weeks, as it cleared the mid-June highs marking the breakout point from its 6 week base. Nice pattern that formed over the 50 day EMA, using that level as support. It formed this pattern immediately after the mid-May break from a 15 week base. Looking for a new all-time high on this run and we are looking to move in as CTRP continues its run higher.
Volume: 420.603K Avg Volume: 299.068K
BUY POINT: $78.92 Volume=450K Target=$90.95 Stop=$75.88
POSITION: QCT IO - Sept. $75c (68 delta) or QCT LP - Dec. $80c (47 delta, 180 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ctrp.html
Play Date: 06/30/2007
INWK (Innerworkings, Inc.--$16.02; -0.13; optionable): Procurement software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/inwk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-9-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. INWK is working on the handle to its 7 month base, moving laterally along the 10 day EMA (15.80) the past three weeks. Not bad action given the weak market, ignoring the selling and forming up its base. A new issue in August 2006, this is INWK's first real base after the initial run on its IPO. Its earnings growth rate and its nice technical pattern make it one of the top stocks in the market right now.
Volume: 302.8K Avg Volume: 465K
BUY POINT: $16.57 Volume=698K Target=$19.98 Stop=$15.41
POSITION: JQA JC - Oct. %15c (low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/inwk.html
Play Date: 06/30/2007
SIMO (Silicon Motion Technology--$24.83; -0.16; optionable): Specialized semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/simo.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. SIMO is setting up for a new all-time high with this 14 week base. SIMO was a new issue in Q3 2005, and it has been a solid performer. It sports some of the best earnings growth rates in the market, and this current pattern is setting it up for the breakout to reflect that status. Started the move just over a week back and was solid Monday before coming back tot eh 18 day EMA in the market selling. Still in great shape and when it makes the next br3eak higher we are ready to move in.
Volume: 557.59K Avg Volume: 838.762K
BUY POINT: $25.65 Volume=1.2M Target=$30.95 Stop=$24.11
POSITION: MQI LE - Dec. $25c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/simo.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 06/30/2007
MR (Mindray Medical Intl.--$30.53; -0.54; optionable): Chinese medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-15-07
STATUS: Breakout test. MR is making the second test of the late May breakout from its 13 week cup with handle base, coming back to the 10 day EMA (30.40) to end last week on some low volume. That followed a break higher from the second week of June as the first test ended. Very nice action in this stock and this low volume pullback to near support is preparing it for the next run higher and is a natural buy point as it breaks higher off of this test.
Volume: 388.4K Avg Volume: 637.874K
BUY POINT: $30.78 Volume=750K Target=$38.95 Stop=$29.66
POSITION: MR JF - Oct. $30c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/30/2007
SONC (Sonic Corp.--$22.12; +0.07; optionable): Burger joints
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sonc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-20-07
STATUS: Put. SONC could not fill the order with its last earnings report, gapping sharply lower after trying to set up a big cup base. It sold below the 200 day SMA (22.79) on that move and then this past week it rebounded to test that move. Friday it tapped the 10 day EMA (22.45) on the high and then faded to flat on stronger volume. A tombstone doji after a rebound back up. That often indicates a rebound move is over. Looking for a turn back down. A move to the target lands a 47%ish gain.
Volume: 1.338M Avg Volume: 903.945K
BUY POINT: $21.99 Volume=910K Target=$21.00 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: ZSQ TX - Aug. $22.50p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sonc.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, EDU, GME, GOOG, MA, PCLN, NVDA, VLO
AAPL: See play above.
GME: Still waiting for that next break higher in the breakout run, and this test of the 18 day EMA may be the shakeout that springs it.
GOOG: Nice end to the week with a low volume test of the 10 day EMA that is setting up the next break higher.
PCLN: Gapped away on an upgrade.
NVDA: Survived a downgrade last week with some panache, selling back to the 10 day EMA but bouncing immediately.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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