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us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BCSI; BIDU; EDU; GSOL; PCLN; RIG; RIMM; WNR
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/30/2007
BTJ (Bolt Technology--$44.04; +1.81; no options): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/btj.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Strong volume Friday as BTJ continued its move off the 50 day EMA (40.22) and the right shoulder to its 6 week base that consolidates the strong March to early May rally. BTJ made us good money on that last run, and we have been watching for it to set back up for a new buy to give us another solid run. Excellent fundamentals growth rates to go along with its nice base. Looking for BTJ to continue the move higher and show us the breakout move once more.
Volume: 432.5K Avg Volume: 402.497K
BUY POINT: $44.39 Volume=600K Target=$53.50 Stop=$41.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/btj.html
Play Date: 06/30/2007
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$78.63; +2.58; optionable): Chinese travel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-16-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CTRP is on quite a run; it has been since it went public. Friday it broke higher on a strong shot of above average volume, the best traded in two weeks, as it cleared the mid-June highs marking the breakout point from its 6 week base. Nice pattern that formed over the 50 day EMA, using that level as support. It formed this pattern immediately after the mid-May break from a 15 week base. Looking for a new all-time high on this run and we are looking to move in as CTRP continues its run higher.
Volume: 420.603K Avg Volume: 299.068K
BUY POINT: $78.92 Volume=450K Target=$90.95 Stop=$75.88
POSITION: QCT IO - Sept. $75c (68 delta) or QCT LP - Dec. $80c (47 delta, 180 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctrp.html
Play Date: 06/30/2007
INWK (Innerworkings, Inc.--$16.02; -0.13; optionable): Procurement software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/inwk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-9-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. INWK is working on the handle to its 7 month base, moving laterally along the 10 day EMA (15.80) the past three weeks. Not bad action given the weak market, ignoring the selling and forming up its base. A new issue in August 2006, this is INWK's first real base after the initial run on its IPO. Its earnings growth rate and its nice technical pattern make it one of the top stocks in the market right now.
Volume: 302.8K Avg Volume: 465K
BUY POINT: $16.57 Volume=698K Target=$19.98 Stop=$15.41
POSITION: JQA JC - Oct. %15c (low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/inwk.html
Play Date: 06/30/2007
NVEC (NVE Corp.--$35.20; +1.37; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvec.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume is jumping as NVEC does the same, heading toward the breakout from the 7 week handle to its 8 month base. Two really strong volume spikes the past week on upside sessions, the last one on Friday. After a very strong July to November run that made us a nice gain this base is setting NVEC up to do it for us once again. Money flow is strong as well, always a good indication. NVEC is another newer stock (IPO late 2002) that enjoys some of the best earnings growth rates in the market.
Volume: 441.776K Avg Volume: 192.429K
BUY POINT: $35.88 Volume=300K Target=$42.95 Stop=$33.37
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvec.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 06/30/2007
MR (Mindray Medical Intl.--$30.53; -0.54; optionable): Chinese medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-15-07
STATUS: Breakout test. MR is making the second test of the late May breakout from its 13 week cup with handle base, coming back to the 10 day EMA (30.40) to end last week on some low volume. That followed a break higher from the second week of June as the first test ended. Very nice action in this stock and this low volume pullback to near support is preparing it for the next run higher and is a natural buy point as it breaks higher off of this test.
Volume: 388.4K Avg Volume: 637.874K
BUY POINT: $30.78 Volume=750K Target=$38.95 Stop=$29.66
POSITION: MR JF - Oct. $30c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/30/2007
SONC (Sonic Corp.--$22.12; +0.07; optionable): Burger joints
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sonc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-20-07
STATUS: Put. SONC could not fill the order with its last earnings report, gapping sharply lower after trying to set up a big cup base. It sold below the 200 day SMA (22.79) on that move and then this past week it rebounded to test that move. Friday it tapped the 10 day EMA (22.45) on the high and then faded to flat on stronger volume. A tombstone doji after a rebound back up. That often indicates a rebound move is over. Looking for a turn back down. A move to the target lands a 47%ish gain.
Volume: 1.338M Avg Volume: 903.945K
BUY POINT: $21.99 Volume=910K Target=$21.00 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: ZSQ TX - Aug. $22.50p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sonc.html
CURRENT PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/26/2007
ARD (Arena Resources--$58.11; +0.83; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ard.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-19-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Strong volume Wednesday pushed ARD off the 10 day EMA but the move sputtered to end the week. Friday it rallied nicely but could not hold the move as volume faded to below average. May come back a bit off of that doji, but want to be ready if it continues higher with a solid move. To recap: ARD has used the market selling to pullback modestly to test the 10 day EMA. Nice test after a high volume breakout off the 50 day EMA tow weeks back that took it out of a 6.5 month ascending base and to a new all-time high. Hardly giving up any ground on the test and set up in excellent position to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 256.4K Avg Volume: 283.9K
BUY POINT: Test back toward 57.50 then a bounce (orig. $57.48) Volume=430K Target=$66.50 Stop=$54.72
POSITION: ARD JK - Oct. $55c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ard.html
Play Date: 06/21/2007
GME (Gamestop--$39.10; -0.82; optionable): Electronic game stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-23-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Fell to the 18 day EMA Friday on some low volume. After that lateral move this can throw you off the scent as the tendency is to give up on a play when it makes this low volume fade. That often acts as the shakeout that occurs just before the breakout so we are watching GME closely this week. To recap: GME is testing its last break higher two weeks back, holding the 10 day EMA as it works laterally setting up the next move. This is one of the periodic tests of the near support it makes as it trends higher after testing the 50 day EMA in mid-May. We are looking for a couple more of these bounces on this run. Showing excellent price/volume action (i.e. higher volume on the upside sessions, lower volume on the down sessions), showing the buyers are in control. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 1.818M Avg Volume: 2.149M
BUY POINT: $40.57 Volume=2.5M Target=$48.75 Stop=$38.57
POSITION: GME JH - Oct. $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gme.html
Play Date: 06/27/2007
HANS (Hansen Natural--$42.98; -0.47; optionable): Monster drinks, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hans.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Still working on the test with a low volume tap at the 18 day EMA on Friday. Just being patient and letting the play come to us. To recap: HANS broke higher in two weeks back with a high volume gap, clearing its 18 week ascending base. Very nice pattern that formed using the 50 day EMA (40.35) as support. It has come back to test the 18 day EMA on lower volume. Nice test and hold, and now we are looking for the break higher on a jump in volume once again. HANS was a big winner for us in 2005 and 2006, and after that long run it needed to rest and get back on track. This base is part of much larger 14 month pattern that has digested all of those prior gains. Now we just patiently wait for it to break higher once more to show us the buyers are still interested.
Volume: 867.143K Avg Volume: 1.761M
BUY POINT: $44.44 Volume=2.1M Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.11
POSITION: QHO LI - Dec. $45c (51 delta, 146 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hans.html
Play Date: 06/28/2007
HRS (Harris Corp.--$54.55; -0.07; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hrs.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Tried to make the move Friday but as with Thursday, volume was a bit lacking and it faded to flat. Still in great position to move higher and looking to pick up the play this week as HRS continues the move. To recap: HRS blasted higher just over a week back, clearing its 19 week double bottom base on a shot of strong volume. It has come back to test the past week, holding just over the 18 day EMA (53.01) as it made the test, then bouncing Thursday. Looking for a bit more volume as it continues the move, but a solid leader forging into new high territory.
Volume: 797.6K Avg Volume: 1.116M
BUY POINT: $54.85 Volume=1.2M Target=$63.00 Stop=$52.95
POSITION: HRS KK - Nov. $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hrs.html
Play Date: 06/25/2007
RATE (Bankrate--$47.92; -0.62; optionable): Online banking services and products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rate.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Ended the week coming back toward the 18 day EMA (47.20), still testing and setting up for the next break higher to continue the breakout move. Letting this pullback run its course and then when it makes the next break higher we move in. To recap: RATE blasted higher three weeks back, surging out of an 18 week cup with handle base, rallying on strong volume. It peaked at 51.32 last week and has tested back to the 18 day EMA on the lows. Money flow is still running higher ahead of price. Showing a lot of buy side strength and looking to move in again as RATE makes the break higher.
Volume: 277.318K Avg Volume: 444.657K
BUY POINT: $49.78 Volume=741K Target=$57.45 Stop=$47.58
POSITION: QIB KJ - Nov. $50c (48 delta) or QIB HI - Aug. $45c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rate.html
Play Date: 06/27/2007
WFR (Memc Electronic--$61.12; -0.03; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Another sideways move Friday on very low volume as WFR appears intent on forming a handle to its base. All the better as that sets up a better run higher. Jut have to wait and let it show us the move. To recap: WFR broke higher off the 50 day EMA (58.43) on rising, average volume. This move is starting it toward the break over the May and early June highs, and that will give us the buy point. Looking for some more volume as it makes the break. WFR was a big winner for us to start the year, and after this base we are looking for WFR to deliver some more.
Volume: 3.477M Avg Volume: 5.878M
BUY POINT: $62.05 Volume=8.2M Target=$71.95 Stop=$56.96
POSITION: WFR JL - Oct. $60c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wfr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
top stock pick
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