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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: BIDU; CLB; CTRP; GSOL; PCLN; RIMM; WNR
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 06/30/2007
FUL (H.B. Fuller--$29.89; +0.07; optionable): Adhesives and specialty chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ful.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-27-07
STATUS: Breakout test. FUL blasted higher on its Wednesday earnings report, soaring out of a 5.5 month double bottom with handle base. It then came back Thursday and Friday, but not a whole lot of ground was given back. The move took FUL to a new high, and after this test we are looking to move in as it rebounds. Very solid action.
Volume: 855.1K Avg Volume: 654.88K
BUY POINT: $30.45 Volume=982K Target=$36.55 Stop=$28.65
POSITION: FUL KF - Nov. $30c (57 delta, 158 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ful.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 06/30/2007
NVEC (NVE Corp.--$35.20; +1.37; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvec.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume is jumping as NVEC does the same, heading toward the breakout from the 7 week handle to its 8 month base. Two really strong volume spikes the past week on upside sessions, the last one on Friday. After a very strong July to November run that made us a nice gain this base is setting NVEC up to do it for us once again. Money flow is strong as well, always a good indication. NVEC is another newer stock (IPO late 2002) that enjoys some of the best earnings growth rates in the market.
Volume: 441.776K Avg Volume: 192.429K
BUY POINT: $35.88 Volume=300K Target=$42.95 Stop=$33.37
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nvec.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BIDU: Forecast in June. No split announced in June but BIDU is on the run and we are loving it.
CHE: No split announced in June. Currently coming off a 50 day EMA in its 7 week lateral base.
CHTT: Forecast third week of July. Just about ready to break the consolidation. A move through 65 does it if it can show us some volume.
CLB: Forecast third week of July. Great week on strong volume.
CLF: Researching the date. Still holding the 50 day EMA and is still getting very interesting here.
CMTL: Researching date.
CTRP: Researching next date as no announcement with its strong earnings.
CVX: Forecast mid-July
DE: Forecast late August
GSOL: Researching the date.
HRS: Forecast last August.
HURN: Wildcard. Researching date. Trying to get a move on again
MA: Researching the next date. Testing the 10 day EMA.
MBT: Tentatively forecast third week of July
NOV: Forecast late July. Has held the 18 day EMA
OSK: Forecast last week of July, first week of August. Fell to the 50 day EMA and bounced, now trying to get through the June high just over 64.
RIMM: Announced its 3:1 split Thursday after the close and it gapped higher to our target. Nice.
RL: No announcement with earnings.
SSYS: Forecast third week of July. Trying to recover the 50 day EMA
SU: Forecast third week of July. Continued the bounce off the 50 day EMA but has to get through this recent toppy pattern from June.
XTO: Forecast early August
VIP: Researching date.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/30/2007
AAPL (Apple Computer--$122.04; +1.48; optionable): iPhones, iPods, iMacs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: Ascending base. After the late April breakout form a 5 month base AAPL ran sharply higher in May and early June ahead of its iPhone release. Then it peaked and started to consolidate. It did not give up a lot of ground, coming back to the 18 day EMA (120), using that level as support as it worked laterally, making higher lows. We are watching to see if AAPL holds this near support and then shows us the break higher on strong trade.
Volume: 40.637M Avg Volume: 30.453M
BUY POINT: $124.25 Volume=45M Target=$139.95 Stop=$120.55
POSITION: APV JE - Oct. $125c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aapl.html
Play Date: 06/30/2007
CHAP (Chaparral Steel Company--$71.87; +0.95; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chap.html
EARNINGS: 7-11-07
STATUS: Flat base. CHAP is working on a 9 week flat base that is consolidating a strong March to April run that peaked at 75. In June it sold back some with the market, but it held the 50 day EMA (69.27) twice, the last test coming last week. It continues to set up nicely for the break with money flow rallying ahead of price, paving the way for price to follow. Unlike many of the metals stocks CHAP held up very well in the recent selling, showing its mettle so to speak.
Volume: 543.56K Avg Volume: 877.569K
BUY POINT: $72.92 Volume=1.3M Target=$86.95 Stop=$70.55
POSITION: ZHQ JN - Oct. $70c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chap.html
Play Date: 06/30/2007
DIOD (Diodes--$41.77; +2.16; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/diod.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. DIOD looks to be back after a 10 month hiatus where it formed a solid cup with handle base. Friday DIOD gapped higher past the handle on a strong volume surge, clearing the late February high as well as it received a UBS upgrade. Solid action from this stock that was once one of our favorite trading stocks. Now we see if it can hold the move; after such a basted stocks often tend to test a bit before resuming the move.
Volume: 921.336K Avg Volume: 386.829K
BUY POINT: $42.05 Volume=500K Target=$48.50 Stop=$39.79
POSITION: DUH IH - Sept. $40c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/diod.html
Play Date: 06/30/2007
PCP (Precision Castparts--$121.36; +3.33; optionable): Metal fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-9-07
STATUS: Flat base. PCP has been on a strong run since last September. Very strong. It peaked out in late May and has worked laterally during June. That may not seem like much, but given the tough time the market had in June, this lateral consolidation move was a nice piece of work. Friday it started to break higher, clearing the closing highs in the lateral range. No volume to push it, however. Looking to see if more trade comes in this wee as it makes the break. Hard to argue with its strength during the selling.
Volume: 1.445M Avg Volume: 1.423M
BUY POINT: $121.68 Volume=2M Target=$136.95 Stop=$117.88
POSITION: PCP ID - Sept. $120c (56 delta) or PCP LE - Dec. $125c (49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcp.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/16/2007
CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs--$77.67; +1.12; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clf.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume jumped above average Friday as CLF gapped up off the 50 day EMA it has been testing the past three weeks. It could not hold a move over the 18 day EMA (78.14) on the close, but it looks very good at this point to finally give us the move higher. Very interesting. To recap: Still in the test of the 50 day EMA (75.37) as it continues its consolidation of the strong October to May run. It dipped below the 50 day last Wednesday but then rebounded on strong, above average volume. Being patient and waiting for CLF to show us the break higher to give us the buy point.
Volume: 1.856M Avg Volume: 1.447M
BUY POINT: $80.22 Volume=2.4M Target=$94.95 Stop=$76.88
POSITION: CLF JP - Oct. $80c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/clf.html
Play Date: 06/28/2007
HRS (Harris Corp.--$54.55; -0.07; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hrs.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Tried to make the move Friday but as with Thursday, volume was a bit lacking and it faded to flat. Still in great position to move higher and looking to pick up the play this week as HRS continues the move. To recap: HRS blasted higher just over a week back, clearing its 19 week double bottom base on a shot of strong volume. It has come back to test the past week, holding just over the 18 day EMA (53.01) as it made the test, then bouncing Thursday. Looking for a bit more volume as it continues the move, but a solid leader forging into new high territory.
Volume: 797.6K Avg Volume: 1.116M
BUY POINT: $54.85 Volume=1.2M Target=$63.00 Stop=$52.95
POSITION: HRS KK - Nov. $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hrs.html
Play Date: 06/25/2007
MBT (Mobile Telesys--$60.57; +0.86; optionable): Wireless telecom in Russia
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-31-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Good action Friday as MBT probed the breakout move on some rising, average volume, but it was not quite ready to hold the move. Still looking very solid for the breakout this week. To recap: Low volume the past tow weeks as MBT works laterally, forming the handle (the shakeout prior to the breakout) from an 11 week base that formed roughly using the 50 day EMA as support. This base is setting MBT up for the breakout to a new all-time high. Very solid leader in the telecom space in very good position for the breakout move.
Volume: 1.509M Avg Volume: 1.575M
BUY POINT: $61.41 Volume=2.4M Target=$71.50 Stop=$58.45
POSITION: MBT IL - Sept. $60c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mbt.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/28/2007
CALM (Cal-Maine Foods--$16.38; +0.28; optionable): Farm products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/calm.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Was up again Friday but after its early surge CALM was trading well off the high much of the session. We thus decided to wait. Still solid and if it continues it is a buy. To recap: Another stock that broke higher in mid-June, clearing a 16 week cup with handle base that consolidated a strong 6 point run. Excellent break higher on strong volume, followed by a two week lateral move. Broke higher again Thursday on strong volume though it closed well off the high. Excellent action and ready for the next break higher.
Volume: 412.398K Avg Volume: 213.158K
BUY POINT: $16.29 Volume=250K Target=$19.55 Stop=$15.22
POSITION: QKM KC - Nov. $15c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/calm.html
Play Date: 06/16/2007
GES (Guess? Inc.--$48.04; -0.49; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ges.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Still set up to make the move off the 18 day EMA (47.57) and continue the breakout, but still not quite getting it done. Just waiting for the move so we can move in. Want to see the volume kick back up as it makes the move. To recap: Excellent action, using the market selling to test the strong early June break higher that took it to 50. Nice low volume test that saw some strong volume Friday (though rebalance volume). Another stock that the selling is not effecting, just setting it up for the next break higher to continue the breakout move. Nice break from a 14 week flat base and this first test is our favorite entry point. Just waiting for it to show us the move.
Volume: 1.204M Avg Volume: 1.429M
BUY POINT: $48.08 Volume=2.2M Target=$57.75 Stop=$46.95
POSITION: GES IW - Sept. $47.50c (65 delta) or GES IJ - Sept. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ges.html
Play Date: 06/21/2007
GME (Gamestop--$39.10; -0.82; optionable): Electronic game stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-23-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Fell to the 18 day EMA Friday on some low volume. After that lateral move this can throw you off the scent as the tendency is to give up on a play when it makes this low volume fade. That often acts as the shakeout that occurs just before the breakout so we are watching GME closely this week. To recap: GME is testing its last break higher two weeks back, holding the 10 day EMA as it works laterally setting up the next move. This is one of the periodic tests of the near support it makes as it trends higher after testing the 50 day EMA in mid-May. We are looking for a couple more of these bounces on this run. Showing excellent price/volume action (i.e. higher volume on the upside sessions, lower volume on the down sessions), showing the buyers are in control. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 1.818M Avg Volume: 2.149M
BUY POINT: $40.57 Volume=2.5M Target=$48.75 Stop=$38.57
POSITION: GME JH - Oct. $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gme.html
Play Date: 06/27/2007
HANS (Hansen Natural--$42.98; -0.47; optionable): Monster drinks, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hans.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Still working on the test with a low volume tap at the 18 day EMA on Friday. Just being patient and letting the play come to us. To recap: HANS broke higher in two weeks back with a high volume gap, clearing its 18 week ascending base. Very nice pattern that formed using the 50 day EMA (40.35) as support. It has come back to test the 18 day EMA on lower volume. Nice test and hold, and now we are looking for the break higher on a jump in volume once again. HANS was a big winner for us in 2005 and 2006, and after that long run it needed to rest and get back on track. This base is part of much larger 14 month pattern that has digested all of those prior gains. Now we just patiently wait for it to break higher once more to show us the buyers are still interested.
Volume: 867.143K Avg Volume: 1.761M
BUY POINT: $44.44 Volume=2.1M Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.11
POSITION: QHO LI - Dec. $45c (51 delta, 146 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hans.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/28/2007
WFR (Memc Electronic--$61.12; -0.03; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Another sideways move Friday on very low volume as WFR appears intent on forming a handle to its base. All the better as that sets up a better run higher. Jut have to wait and let it show us the move. To recap: WFR broke higher off the 50 day EMA (58.43) on rising, average volume. This move is starting it toward the break over the May and early June highs, and that will give us the buy point. Looking for some more volume as it makes the break. WFR was a big winner for us to start the year, and after this base we are looking for WFR to deliver some more.
Volume: 3.477M Avg Volume: 5.878M
BUY POINT: $62.05 Volume=8.2M Target=$71.95 Stop=$56.96
POSITION: WFR JL - Oct. $60c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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