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7/03/07 Technical Traders Report
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Technical Traders Report Subscribers:
**NOTE: Reports resume Thursday after the Fourth of July holiday.
MARKET ALERTS
Target hit alerts: None issued
Buy alerts: HRS
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the SSR alert service you can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertttr.html
SUMMARY:
Stocks managed to post modest gains pre-holiday, a scenario that occurs 80% of the time. Modest was the operative word. NASDAQ broke to a new post-2002 high as stocks such as AAPL took off once more. Most stocks enjoyed gains though it was a rather modest 1.6:1 margin. Oil was lower all session then rallied to close positive (71.41, +0.32). Bond yields bounced higher with the 2 year rising to 4.88% and the 10 year moving back above 5.00, closing at 5.04%. Factory orders fell a less than expected 0.5% (-1.2% expected, 0.5% prior).
Regardless of the data, stocks were set to move higher as the new quarter money continued to purchase stocks. After the independence holiday that move will get its test, particularly with the jobs report on Friday. The market was in rebound mode Monday and Tuesday, but outside of NASDAQ it is still in an open question as to what the NYSE indices are going to do. SP500 broke back up into its channel (barely) but with no volume and the new quarter money the action was masked. Still plenty of solid stocks in position to move higher, and we even bought into some Tuesday as a few showed particularly solid moves heading into the holiday. We will continue to do so Thursday when we come back from holiday if the buyers are still present and show some even better strength.
Full reports resume Thursday.
Have a great Fourth of July holiday!
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 14.92; -0.48
VXN: 16.7; -0.3
VXO: 13.95; -0.83
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.91; +0.06
Bulls versus Bears:
Bulls: 53.8%. Still holding high levels, rising from 53.3% after a spike to 56.7% three weeks back. Still too high, but as noted before, bulls have been in this range since last October. The 55% level is considered bearish, and is thus another factor along with the lower volume on this recovery bounce that suggests the market is still overbought here. Still off the 60% hit in December 2006 but getting closer. For reference it bottomed in the summer 2006 near 36%.
Bears: 20.4%. Back up above the 20% threshold considered bearish after falling to 18.9% three weeks back. After hitting near 30% in March it has faded back in the subsequent rebound and this current selling has not done much to jump it higher. Looking only at this indication and the fact it has not risen as it did in March when the selling took hold, you would conclude that there is more selling to go. Well off the 27.5% hit in April. For reference, it hit a post-2002 high in that late June 2006 move (hit near 36%), eclipsing the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005).
NASDAQ
Stats: +12.65 points (+0.48%) to close at 2644.95
Volume: 1.117B (-40%)
Up Volume: 734.19M (-583.572M)
Down Volume: 363.549M (-152.248M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.23 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.94 to 1
New Highs: 114 (-37)
New Lows: 37 (-21)
NASDAQ CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +5.44 points (+0.36%) to close at 1524.87
NYSE Volume: 764.781M (-44.61%)
Up Volume: 472.981M (-678.835M)
Down Volume: 274.075M (+58.423M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.65 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 4 to 1
New Highs: 162 (-16)
New Lows: 18 (-10)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: +41.87 points (+0.31%) to close at 13577.3
Volume: 111M shares Tuesday versus 196M shares Monday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2644.95
Resistance:
2778 from a July 1999 peak
2887 from a September 1999 peak
2920 from an October 1999 peak
Support:
2634.60 is the June peak
2633 is the top of the November/February channel
2628 is the November/February up trendline
2601 is the mid-May intraday peak.
The 18 day EMA at 2603
2577 is the October/December/January trendline
The 50 day EMA at 2571
2531.42 is the February high (post-2002 high); 2525 intraday
2523 was price resistance November 2000
2509 is the January 2007 high
S&P 500: Closed at 1524.87
Resistance:
1524 is the late November to February up trendline
1528 is the March 2000 closing high
1541 is the June high.
1553 intraday high from March 2000 is the all-time index peak
The upper trendline of the channel at 1557
Support:
The 50 day SMA at 1511
The 50 day EMA at 1503
1490.72 is the early June closing low
1475 from peaks in December 1999 and January 2000
1461.57 is the February 2007 high.
1440 is the mid-January high
Dow: Closed at 13,577.30
Resistance:
The early June high at 13,676 (closing), 13,692 (intraday)
Support:
The mid-May peak at 13,556
13,474 is the upper channel line in the November/February channel
13,415 is the November/February up trendline that marks the lower channel.
The 50 day EMA at 13,328
12,796 at the February 2007 high
12,700 is the early February peak intraday high
12,623 is the mid-January high
12,511 is the March intraday high.
12,499 is the December intraday high.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
July 2
ISM Index, June (10:00): 56.0 actual versus 55.0 expected, 55.0 prior
July 3: Early close
Factory Orders, May (10:00): -0.5% actual -1.0% expected, 0.5% prior (revised from 0.3%)
Pending home sales, May (10:00): -3.5% actual versus 0.3% expected, -3.4% prior (revised from -3.2%)
July 4: Closed
July 5
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 315K versus 313K prior
ISM Services, June (10:00): 58.0 expected, 59.7 prior
Crude inventories (10:30): 1.56M prior
July 6
Non-farm payrolls, June (8:30): 125K expected, 157K prior
Unemployment rate (8:30): 4.5% expected, 4.5% prior
Hourly earnings (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior
Average workweek (8:30): 33.9 expected, 33.9 prior
End part 1 of 2
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