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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: AAPL; BIDU; CLF; CTRP; FFIV; GES; GME; GOOG; GRMN; IBM; PCLN; RIMM; SPIL; WNR
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 07/05/2007
ROH (Rohm & Haas--$54.80; +0.19; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/roh.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-07
STATUS: Breakout test. ROH broke higher to end June, gapping higher on strong volume as it moved out of an 18 week cup with handle base. It has moved laterally the past two sessions, testing the move, refusing to give up any ground. Looking for the breakout move to continue on solid trade so we can move in.
Volume: 988.5K Avg Volume: 991.819K
BUY POINT: $55.75 Volume=1.4M Target=$64.38 Stop=$53.78
POSITION: ROH JK - Oct. $55c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/roh.html
Play Date: 07/05/2007
SUG (Southern Union--$33.38; +0.81; optionable): Gas utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sug.html
EARNINGS: 8-9-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. SUG spent the month of June and the market volatility testing back to the 50 day EMA (32.43), consolidating the strong moved in early and late May that took SUG to a new all-time high. Nice low volume on the pullback. Trade surged Thursday as SUG bounced off the 50 day and buyers moved in. Money flow is solid and we are ready to move in as SUG continues its move higher off of this key support.
Volume: 1.108M Avg Volume: 582.795K
BUY POINT: $33.57 Volume=700K Target=$39.95 Stop=$32.21
POSITION: SUG IF - Sept. $30c (82 delta, 262 OI) or SUG LG - Dece. $35c (46 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sug.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Surging higher.
BIDU: No June split but who cares with this run.
CHAP: Forecast second week of July
CHE: No split announced in June. Testing the high in its 8 week trading range.
CHTT: Forecast third week of July. Nice tight doji on rising, average volume as CHTT prepares to break higher.
CLB: Forecast third week of July
CLF: Researching the date. Surging on solid volume.
CMTL: Researching date.
CTRP: Researching next date as no announcement with its strong earnings. Surging higher on strong trade.
CVX: Forecast mid-July
DE: Forecast late August
DIOD: Nice break higher to end June.
GSOL: Researching the date.
HRS: Forecast last August.
HURN: Wildcard. Researching date. Trying to get a move on again
MA: Researching the next date. Testing the 10 day EMA.
MBT: Tentatively forecast third week of July
NOV: Forecast late July. Has held the 18 day EMA
OSK: Forecast last week of July, first week of August.
RIMM: Announced its 3:1 split Thursday after the close and it gapped higher to our target. Nice.
RL: No announcement with earnings.
SSYS: Forecast third week of July. Trying to recover the 50 day EMA
SU: Forecast third week of July. Continued the bounce off the 50 day EMA but has to get through this recent toppy pattern from June.
XTO: Forecast early August
VIP: Researching date.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/05/2007
TEX (Terex--$84.58; -0.23; optionable): Heavy machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tex.html
EARNINGS: Last week of July
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. TEX has formed a nice little 6 week pattern over the 50 day EMA (81.05), consolidating the last breakout and run higher from February when TEX formed a similar pattern. Nice easy low volume test the past two sessions as TEX works on the handle to its base after a nice surge higher on solid trade Monday. Excellent money flow, excellent strength. Ready to move in as TEX breaks higher again.
Volume: 580.5K Avg Volume: 1.17M
BUY POINT: $86.05 Volume=1.5M Target=$99.95 Stop=$83.05
POSITION: TEX JQ - Oct. $85c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tex.html
Play Date: 07/05/2007
TK (Teekay Shipping--$59.67; +1.47; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-9-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume surged Thursday as TK broke higher from its 8 week base that formed using the 90 day SMA (56.72) as support for both of its legs. The nice short base is consolidating the late January breakout from a 2 year base. Very nice action with the base, and an excellent break higher. Looking to move in as TK continues its move.
Volume: 1.226M Avg Volume: 486.046K
BUY POINT: $60.21 Volume=500K Target=$69.45 Stop=$57.65
POSITION: TK JL - Oct. $60c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tk.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/26/2007
DE (Deere & Co.--$123.06; +0.83; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/de.html
EARNINGS: 8-15-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Working laterally this week after breaking higher Monday to clear the 10 day EMA. Very nice action in its pattern, and this higher low is setting up the breakout move. To recap: DE tested the breakout from a short 7 week double bottom with handle base that formed at the 50 day EMA (118). Nice base on base pattern as the current base follows a 11 week double bottom. Like these because they wring out more of the sellers. Want to see some good volume as DE makes the rebound through the buy point.
Volume: 1.447M Avg Volume: 2.595M
BUY POINT: $122.25 Volume=4M Target=$139.95 Stop=$119.55
POSITION: DE ID - Sept. $120c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/de.html
Play Date: 06/27/2007
DLTR (Dollar Tree--$43.73; +0.20; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dltr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-30-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After bouncing off the 50 day EMA the last week of June DLTR has made a quiet, orderly test of the move, showing a doji at the 18 day EMA Thursday on low volume. Nice set up to continue the breakout, making a higher low at that near support. Looking for stronger volume is it makes the next break higher. To recap: After a solid run up the 10 and 18 day EMA, DLTR came back for a test of the 50 day EMA. It broke out in February and started that strong run, banking us a lot of nice gain on the way. After several rotations up the 18 day EMA it needed a deeper test, and has done that.
Volume: 837.786K Avg Volume: 1.269M
BUY POINT: $44.85 Volume=1.4M Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.77
POSITION: DQO KV - Nov. $42.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dltr.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/19/2007
ATLS (Atlas America--$56.24; +1.17; no options): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atls.html
EARNINGS: Last week of July
STATUS: Flat base. Breaking higher but not showing any trade as it moves off the 18 day EMA test in the 5 week lateral consolidation. Want to see a bit more trade as it makes the move.
Volume: 113.405K Avg Volume: 172.05K
BUY POINT: 56.52 (orig. $55.65) Volume=250K Target=$63.95 Stop=$53.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atls.html
Play Date: 07/02/2007
ATW (Atwood Oceanics--$70.23; -0.89; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atw.html
EARNINGS: 8-7-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Tested the 10 day EMA on the Thursday low and rebounded to recoup some losses on rising, average volume. Nice shakeout and looking to move in as ATW makes the turn back up. To recap: ATW made the breakout move from a 7 week base formed using the 50 day EMA (64.69) as support. This base followed the March breakout from a 12 month cup with handle pattern that rallied on through early May. It has set up for the next move after this pattern, and we are looking to move in as ATW heads out into the new high waters once more.
Volume: 542.9K Avg Volume: 528.542K
BUY POINT: $70.56 Volume=600K Target=$81.45 Stop=$67.38
POSITION: ATW IN - Sept. $70c (56 delta) or ATW LO - Dec. $75c (41 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atw.html
Play Date: 06/27/2007
HANS (Hansen Natural--$43.71; -0.44; optionable): Monster drinks, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hans.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Still testing the mid-June breakout, holding the 10 day EMA on low volume. All of this is simply setting up the next move in its breakout run. To recap: HANS broke higher in two weeks back with a high volume gap, clearing its 18 week ascending base. Very nice pattern that formed using the 50 day EMA (40.35) as support. It has come back to test the 18 day EMA on lower volume. Nice test and hold, and now we are looking for the break higher on a jump in volume once again. HANS was a big winner for us in 2005 and 2006, and after that long run it needed to rest and get back on track. This base is part of much larger 14 month pattern that has digested all of those prior gains. Now we just patiently wait for it to break higher once more to show us the buyers are still interested.
Volume: 1.258M Avg Volume: 1.711M
BUY POINT: $44.44 Volume=2.1M Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.11
POSITION: QHO LI - Dec. $45c (51 delta, 146 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hans.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/23/2007
VCLK (Valueclick--$30.39; -0.29; optionable): Internet advertising
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vclk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Cup. VCLK is forming the base still, fading back modestly Thursday after a break higher Monday and Tuesday off the bottom of the base at the 90 day SMA. Good bounce higher but no volume yet. After a couple of sessions moving sideways it will be ready to move again. So why is it on the report tonight? Because it is a strong stock and it may not wait another two sessions.
Volume: 1.28M Avg Volume: 3.148M
BUY POINT: $30.45 Volume=4.5M Target=$36.55 Stop=$28.45
POSITION: QCS IF - Sept. $30c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vclk.html
Play Date: 06/28/2007
WFR (Memc Electronic--$61.50; -0.70; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After surging higher with a Monday gap that continued the break off the 50 day EMA, WFR faded back to test Tuesday and Thursday, tapping at the 18 day EMA on the Thursday low and rebounding to close above the 10 day EMA (60.74). Nice test and shakeout, and looking to move in as WFR makes the break higher on strong volume. To recap: WFR broke higher off the 50 day EMA (58.43) on rising, average volume. This move is starting it toward the break over the May and early June highs, and that will give us the buy point. Looking for some more volume as it makes the break. WFR was a big winner for us to start the year, and after this base we are looking for WFR to deliver some more.
Volume: 4.937M Avg Volume: 5.934M
BUY POINT: $62.05 Volume=8.2M Target=$71.95 Stop=$56.96
POSITION: WFR JL - Oct. $60c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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