|
|
us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BIDU; BTJ; CMTL; CTRP; EDU; FCX; GRMN; HANS; ICE; MFE; NVEC; PCLN; RIG; SIMO; SPWR
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/07/2007
AMT (American Tower--$43.49; +0.74; optionable): Communication towers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. AMT is an old winner for us, and it has set up a very nice base once more to make the breakout and most importantly, make us money. It has formed a short 5 week base using the 50 day EMA (41.43) on the two legs as support. Strong move to start last week, then a fade back to the 10 day EMA on Friday before reversing intraday and posting a solid gain on rising though below average volume. AMT is ready for a 7 year high, and we are looking to move in as AMT continues the move with some volume. A really sweet little pattern.
Volume: 1.919M Avg Volume: 2.511M
BUY POINT: $43.75 Volume=3.5M Target=$49.95 Stop=$42.11
POSITION: AMT JZ - Oct. $42.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amt.html
Play Date: 07/07/2007
CYNO (Cynosure--$37.74; +1.03; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cyno.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. After a February breakout from a large base and a run higher, CYNO tested the 50 day EMA (33.76) in late May and then started another run up the 18 day EMA. A strong stock will make this cycle as it continues higher, using the 50 day EMA as its deeper test point to catch its breath and then rebound to continue the run. We are looking to pick up CYNO as it makes the break higher; it started higher Friday on a good shot of rising volume. A solid leadership stock that has some of the best fundamentals growth rates in the market.
Volume: 253.298K Avg Volume: 286.386K
BUY POINT: $38.68 Volume=430K Target=$46.50 Stop=$36.48
POSITION: QNO LG - Dec. $35c (66 delta, 80 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cyno.html
Play Date: 07/07/2007
FDS (Factset Research--$68.43; +0.21; optionable): Financial & economic data to financial organizations
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fds.html
EARNINGS: 6-19-2007
STATUS: Breakout test. FDS reported some strong earnings mid-June and that gapped it higher and out of a 13 week base. It surged to 70 and then faded to test, holding the 10 day EMA (67.98) as it consolidated during the late June market chop. It has leveled out and is trading in a very tight, flat range on very low volume. The quiet before the storm. Looking for FDS to make the next break higher and when it makes that move with some volume, we move in.
Volume: 148.7K Avg Volume: 293.13K
BUY POINT: $69.48 Volume=440K Target=$79.95 Stop=$67.77
POSITION: FDS IM - Sept. $65c (70 delta) or FDS LN - Dec. $70c (43 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fds.html
Play Date: 07/07/2007
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$59.59; +0.40; optionable): Engineering and technical services for industrial, commercial and governmental clients
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-07
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After an April breakout from a big 12 month base followed by a strong run to early June, JEC has consolidated and set up for its next break higher. It has formed a shorter 5 week base with constant tops at 60 and rising lows in the base. That is building pressure from below for the next explosive move upside. Indeed, volume surged back above average Thursday and Friday as JEC bumped at the prior high. Looking for that continued strong volume as JEC makes the break higher this week from its base.
Volume: 924.303K Avg Volume: 796.516K
BUY POINT: $60.22 Volume=1.2M Target=$69.38 Stop=$57.98
POSITION: JEC JL - Oct. $60c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jec.html
Play Date: 07/07/2007
LUFK (Lufkin Industries--$67.95; +1.46; optionable): Oil and gas pumping, power transmission products, highway trailers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lufk.html
EARNINGS: 7-18-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. LUFK is starting the breakout from a big 14 month base, showing strong volume Friday as it broke through the prior highs in the pattern. Excellent strength on volume in a market that overall lacked strong trade. This long base has set LUFK for the next run higher and we are looking to move in on a continued move higher.
Volume: 214.981K Avg Volume: 141.067K
BUY POINT: $68.25 Volume=175K Target=$76.75 Stop=$65.75
POSITION: UFR IM - Sept. $65c (65 delta) or UFR LN - Dec. $70c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lufk.html
Play Date: 07/07/2007
VDSI (Vasco Data Security--$24.54; +1.10; optionable): Security software and hardware to protect corporate information
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vdsi.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Ascending base. VDSI continues its winning ways, breaking higher Friday on strong volume (in a weak volume market), pushing through the top of a 10 week base that formed making a couple of higher lows at the 50 day EMA (21.61) with a constant top at 23.50ish. This stock is in the same sector as BCSI and is arguably the leader in the sector. Looking to move in as VDSI continues the break higher.
Volume: 985.867K Avg Volume: 657.024K
BUY POINT: $24.88 Volume=670K Target=$29.95 Stop=$23.14
POSITION: QFN LX - Dec. $22.50c (69 delta, 153 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vdsi.html
CURRENT PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/02/2007
AGU (Agrium--$45.03; +0.70; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-3-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still a great set up for the next move higher after this very nice test. Excellent set up and just being patient and letting the play come to us. To recap: AGU surged out of its 9 week double bottom base two weeks back, surging higher on strong volume. It hit 46 on the breakout run, moving to a new all-time high. It came back the past two weeks, tapping at the 18 day EMA last week intraday and then rebounded to hold the 10 day on the close (44.09). Nice test and set up well to continue the breakout move. Great sector and a great stock.
Volume: 869.6K Avg Volume: 1.352M
BUY POINT: $45.25 Volume=1.6M Target=$53.95 Stop=$43.21
POSITION: AGU JI - Oct. $45c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/agu.html
Play Date: 07/05/2007
HPQ (Hewlett-Packard--$45.98; +0.08; optionable): PC's, printers, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hpq.html
EARNINGS: 8-16-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Closed the week bumping the June highs, looking for the next breakout to send it higher. Another stock we just have to be patient with and let it show us the break for us to move in. To recap: After a strong break higher to start May, HPQ surged up to 46 on the high. It came back to test and consolidate that move to end June, holding above the 50 day EMA (44.60) on the close. Bouncing back up this week, approaching the prior highs (46.29 intraday) though on lower volume. A technology leader, looking to step in as HPQ makes the breakout move with some volume.
Volume: 8.369M Avg Volume: 13.86M
BUY POINT: $46.32 Volume=20M Target=$53.32 Stop=$44.48
POSITION: HPQ KI - Nov. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hpq.html
Play Date: 06/25/2007
RATE (Bankrate--$49.40; -0.19; optionable): Online banking services and products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rate.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. RATE still looks good for the next break higher, finishing the week with a gain on Thursday and a pause Friday, as it holds over the 10 day EMA in its test. Just needs some volume to send it higher on a further run in the breakout. Very solid stock. To recap: RATE blasted higher three weeks back, surging out of an 18 week cup with handle base, rallying on strong volume. It peaked at 51.32 last week and has tested back to the 18 day EMA on the lows. Money flow is still running higher ahead of price. Showing a lot of buy side strength and looking to move in again as RATE makes the break higher.
Volume: 176.039K Avg Volume: 414.375K
BUY POINT: $49.78 Volume=741K Target=$57.45 Stop=$47.58
POSITION: QIB KJ - Nov. $50c (48 delta) or QIB HI - Aug. $45c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rate.html
Play Date: 07/02/2007
SMSC (Standard Microsystems--$35.86; -0.13; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smsc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-27-07
STATUS: Test breakout. SMSC continues the nice, orderly test of its late June breakout. It is testing lower intraday and rebounding on low volume. May come back a bit more toward the 10 day EMA (34.97) but we want to be ready when it rebounds. To recap: SMSC surged out of a nicely formed 10 week reverse head and shoulders in late June on the earnings announcement, blasting higher on strong, strong volume. It made a quick test, and then was back on the move higher on a return to higher volume. Excellent. Ready to move in as SMSC continues the move higher.
Volume: 205.103K Avg Volume: 287.376K
BUY POINT: $36.58 Volume=300K Target=$43.95 Stop=$34.02
POSITION: SMQ JG - Oct. $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/smsc.html
Play Date: 06/27/2007
WFR (Memc Electronic--$62.20; +0.70; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Still in the test back to near support at the 10 day EMA (61) after coming off the 50 day EMA test in June. It is in great position to move higher but it has yet to make the breakaway on some volume. When everyone comes back this week that may make the difference for it. Just waiting for the move. To recap: WFR broke higher off the 50 day EMA (59.18) on rising, average volume in late June. The move started it toward the break over the May and early June highs, and that will give us the buy point. Looking for some more volume as it makes the break. WFR was a big winner for us to start the year, and after this base we are looking for WFR to deliver some more.
Volume: 2.925M Avg Volume: 5.889M
BUY POINT: New: $62.82 (orig. $62.05) Volume=8.2M Target=$71.95 Stop=$56.96
POSITION: WFR JL - Oct. $60c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wfr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
top stock pick
|
