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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: ATW; BID; BIDU; CMTL; CTRP; FCX; GRMN; HANS; HURN; ICE; MICC; NVEC; RIG; SPIL
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 07/07/2007
CSX (CSX Corp.--$46.43; +0.32; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/csx.html
EARNINGS: 7-17-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A very nice little 8 week base for CSX as it consolidates the March through April run with a lateral move using the 50 day EMA (44.58) as support. Using the 50 day EMA shows us the sellers are not overpowering the stock after the run higher, but instead that the big money is supporting it, accumulating shares. Nice break higher last week to finish the cup and start the handle. Friday volume surged as CSX tapped the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounded for a gain. Looks ready to make the breakout move to another new high.
Volume: 7.16M Avg Volume: 6.574M
BUY POINT: $47.05 Volume=9.9M Target=$54.38 Stop=$45.05
POSITION: CSX KI - Nov. $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/csx.html
Play Date: 07/07/2007
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$59.59; +0.40; optionable): Engineering and technical services for industrial, commercial and governmental clients
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-07
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After an April breakout from a big 12 month base followed by a strong run to early June, JEC has consolidated and set up for its next break higher. It has formed a shorter 5 week base with constant tops at 60 and rising lows in the base. That is building pressure from below for the next explosive move upside. Indeed, volume surged back above average Thursday and Friday as JEC bumped at the prior high. Looking for that continued strong volume as JEC makes the break higher this week from its base.
Volume: 924.303K Avg Volume: 796.516K
BUY POINT: $60.22 Volume=1.2M Target=$69.38 Stop=$57.98
POSITION: JEC JL - Oct. $60c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jec.html
Play Date: 07/07/2007
SAY (Satyam Computer Services--$26.25; +1.08; optionable): Application development services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/say.html
EARNINGS: 7-20-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. SAY is making the breakout move from an 11 week base that is part of a 6 month base on base pattern. That simply means there are two bases stuck together with no real run after the breakout from the initial base. These tend to work out all of the sellers, and the second breakout is the one that sends it running. Friday SAY showed volume and price relative strength with the breakout move, clearing the June high. Nice action and we are ready to move in as SAY continues higher. Still has plenty of time and room to run ahead of its earnings report.
Volume: 1.1M Avg Volume: 713.844K
BUY POINT: $26.54 Volume=750K Target=$31.95 Stop=$25.39
POSITION: SAY JE - Oct. $25c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/say.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Nice week for the iPhone.
BIDU: No June split but it is still screaming higher
CHAP: Forecast second week of July.
CHE: No split announced in June. Testing the high in its 8 week trading range.
CHTT: Forecast third week of July
CLB: Forecast third week of July
CLF: Researching the date. Nice set up to run to 90 and beyond.
CMTL: Researching date.
CTRP: Researching next date as no announcement with its strong earnings.
CVX: Forecast mid-July
DE: Forecast late August
DIOD: Nice break higher to end June.
DLTR: Tentatively forecast 8-15-07
GSOL: Researching the date.
HRS: Forecast last August.
HURN: Wildcard. Researching date. Still looking for that real breakaway move.
MA: Researching the next date
MBT: Tentatively forecast third week of July
NOV: Forecast late July. Has held the 18 day EMA
OSK: Forecast last week of July, first week of August.
RL: No announcement with earnings.
SSYS: Forecast third week of July. Still rying to recover the 50 day EMA
TEX: Forecast 7-25-07
SU: Forecast third week of July
XTO: Forecast early August
VIP: Researching date.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/07/2007
COH (Coach--$49.37; +1.47; optionable): Handbags, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Volume jumped above average Thursday and Friday as COH moved off of the second bottom of what is shaping up to be an 11-week base. After a strong August to April move it needed a good base to set up for the next move higher. Nice reload and we like how volume moved in as it started off the lows to end the week; solid volume in some low volume sessions. We are looking to move in ahead of the move over the 'hump' at 52, but we like the life coming off this second bottom. As if completes the base and then breaks out again down the road we will look to move in then as well.
Volume: 3.901M Avg Volume: 3.557M
BUY POINT: $49.85 Volume=5M Target=$57.45 Stop=$47.88
POSITION: COH KW - Nov. $47.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 07/07/2007
EXC (Exelon--$76.41; -0.16; optionable): Utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exc.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. A sweet 8 week base has set up using the 90 day SMA (72.24) as support for the two legs. Strong run from March to early May needed a break as EXC surged to a new all-time high. It bounced to start last week then tested to end the week, tapping the 50 day SMA (74.82) on the low and rebounding. Nice shakeout that typically precedes the breakout move. Just looking for some volume to kick back in as it makes the next move higher.
Volume: 2.616M Avg Volume: 3.673M
BUY POINT: $77.32 Volume=5.5M Target=$87.65 Stop=$74.72
POSITION: EXC JO - Oct. $75c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/exc.html
Play Date: 07/07/2007
FDS (Factset Research--$68.43; +0.21; optionable): Financial & economic data to financial organizations
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fds.html
EARNINGS: 6-19-2007
STATUS: Breakout test. FDS reported some strong earnings mid-June and that gapped it higher and out of a 13 week base. It surged to 70 and then faded to test, holding the 10 day EMA (67.98) as it consolidated during the late June market chop. It has leveled out and is trading in a very tight, flat range on very low volume. The quiet before the storm. Looking for FDS to make the next break higher and when it makes that move with some volume, we move in.
Volume: 148.7K Avg Volume: 293.13K
BUY POINT: $69.48 Volume=440K Target=$79.95 Stop=$67.77
POSITION: FDS IM - Sept. $65c (70 delta) or FDS LN - Dec. $70c (43 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fds.html
Play Date: 07/07/2007
LUFK (Lufkin Industries--$67.95; +1.46; optionable): Oil and gas pumping, power transmission products, highway trailers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lufk.html
EARNINGS: 7-18-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. LUFK is starting the breakout from a big 14 month base, showing strong volume Friday as it broke through the prior highs in the pattern. Excellent strength on volume in a market that overall lacked strong trade. This long base has set LUFK for the next run higher and we are looking to move in on a continued move higher.
Volume: 214.981K Avg Volume: 141.067K
BUY POINT: $68.25 Volume=175K Target=$76.75 Stop=$65.75
POSITION: UFR IM - Sept. $65c (65 delta) or UFR LN - Dec. $70c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lufk.html
New buy point on current play:
Play Date: 07/07/2007
CHTT (Chattem--$65.63; +1.12; optionable): Over the counter healthcare, dietary, and toiletry products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chtt.html
EARNINGS: 7-10-07
STATUS: Double bottom. A short nice 7 week base has formed over the 50 day EMA (62.14), bouncing to end June and then coming back last week to test near support at the 10 day EMA (64.10). Nice test and then a move higher Friday though no volume with the move. Money flow is solid and all we are looking for is some more volume as it continues breaking higher. Very nice set up heading into earnings and a split announcement.
Volume: 225.672K Avg Volume: 303.173K
BUY POINT: $65.92 Volume=450K Target=$74.95 Stop=$63.45
POSITION: HQT IM - Sept. $65c (58 delta) or HQT LN - Dec. $70c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chtt.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/05/2007
TEX (Terex--$84.67; +0.09; optionable): Heavy machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tex.html
EARNINGS: Last week of July
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Excellent action to end last week, showing a pair of dojis on the candlestick chart above the 10 day EMA (83.77), tapping that level on the intraday lows and rebounding nicely. It is set up for the move and we just have to let it come to us. To recap: TEX has formed a nice little 6 week pattern over the 50 day EMA (81.05), consolidating the last breakout and run higher from February when TEX formed a similar pattern. Nice easy low volume test the past two sessions as TEX works on the handle to its base after a nice surge higher on solid trade Monday. Excellent money flow, excellent strength. Ready to move in as TEX breaks higher again.
Volume: 457.3K Avg Volume: 1.167M
BUY POINT: $86.05 Volume=1.5M Target=$99.95 Stop=$83.05
POSITION: TEX JQ - Oct. $85c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tex.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/30/2007
FUL (H.B. Fuller--$29.75; -0.07; optionable): Specialty chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ful.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Looks as if the test of the 10 day EMA (29.42) is just about over as FUL spent Thursday and Friday tapping the 10 day on the intraday lows and rebounding. Nice action and we are just waiting for the bounce higher on more trade to move in.
Volume: 456.4K Avg Volume: 626.606K
BUY POINT: $30.45 Volume=982K Target=$36.55 Stop=$28.65
POSITION: FUL KF - Nov. $30c (57 delta, 158 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ful.html
Play Date: 07/05/2007
SUG (Southern Union--$33.36; -0.02; optionable): Gas utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sug.html
EARNINGS: 8-9-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Still set to make the rebound move though Friday SUG did not have the volume to hold a modest gap higher on the heels of the Thursday surge. Just being patient and letting it show the next bounce on rising trade. To recap: SUG spent the month of June and the market volatility testing back to the 50 day EMA (32.43), consolidating the strong moved in early and late May that took SUG to a new all-time high. Nice low volume on the pullback. Trade surged Thursday as SUG bounced off the 50 day and buyers moved in. Money flow is solid and we are ready to move in as SUG continues its move higher off of this key support.
Volume: 451.8K Avg Volume: 583.102K
BUY POINT: $33.57 Volume=700K Target=$39.95 Stop=$32.21
POSITION: SUG IF - Sept. $30c (82 delta, 262 OI) or SUG LG - Dec. $35c (46 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sug.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/02/2007
SMSC (Standard Microsystems--$35.86; -0.13; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smsc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-27-07
STATUS: Test breakout. SMSC continues the nice, orderly test of its late June breakout. It is testing lower intraday and rebounding on low volume. May come back a bit more toward the 10 day EMA (34.97) but we want to be ready when it rebounds. To recap: SMSC surged out of a nicely formed 10 week reverse head and shoulders in late June on the earnings announcement, blasting higher on strong, strong volume. It made a quick test, and then was back on the move higher on a return to higher volume. Excellent. Ready to move in as SMSC continues the move higher.
Volume: 205.103K Avg Volume: 287.376K
BUY POINT: $36.58 Volume=300K Target=$43.95 Stop=$34.02
POSITION: SMQ JG - Oct. $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/smsc.html
Play Date: 06/23/2007
VCLK (Valueclick--$30.54; +0.15; optionable): Internet advertising
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vclk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Cup. Bounced higher to start last week and then moved laterally to end it, forming a nice lateral handle of sorts after it came off the bottom of its base at the 90 day SMA. May take a couple more days to finish the lateral move but we really like how VCLK is forming up here. To recap: VCLK is working on its 7 week base that used the 90 day SMA as support. The move is consolidating a strong run in May, allowing VCLK to reload for the next run higher.
Volume: 1.051M Avg Volume: 3.158M
BUY POINT: New: $31.04 (orig. $30.45) Volume=4.5M Target=$36.55 Stop=$28.45
POSITION: QCS IF - Sept. $30c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vclk.html
Play Date: 06/28/2007
WFR (Memc Electronic--$62.20; +0.70; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Still in the test back to near support at the 10 day EMA (61) after coming off the 50 day EMA test in June. It is in great position to move higher but it has yet to make the breakaway on some volume. When everyone comes back this week that may make the difference for it. Just waiting for the move. To recap: WFR broke higher off the 50 day EMA (59.18) on rising, average volume in late June. The move started it toward the break over the May and early June highs, and that will give us the buy point. Looking for some more volume as it makes the break. WFR was a big winner for us to start the year, and after this base we are looking for WFR to deliver some more.
Volume: 2.925M Avg Volume: 5.889M
BUY POINT: New: $62.82 (orig. $62.05) Volume=8.2M Target=$71.95 Stop=$56.96
POSITION: WFR JL - Oct. $60c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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