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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CMI; CXG; EDU; GME; GMRK; GRMN; HOKU; ININ; SIMO; ZOLT
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/09/2007
CAT (Caterpillar--$79.83; +1.02; optionable): Heavy machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cat.html
EARNINGS: 7-20-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. The heavy machinery is moving again and CAT showed some solid, above average volume Monday as it sprang off the 50 day EMA following a two week test back to that level. CAT made us some nice money on its last run higher after gapping up in late April in earnings and running up the 18 day EMA (79.26) to 78 in mid-June. It is now approaching earnings again and has a nice pullback to the 50 day to set the next move higher. On the last move CAT rallied to the May 2006 high, the high in the 15 month base. We anticipate that CAT will take that level out this time around. Looking to move in as CAT continues to purr higher.
Volume: 6.499M Avg Volume: 5.61M
BUY POINT: $80.95 Volume=8M Target=$94.95 Stop=$78.68
POSITION: CAT KP - Nov. $80c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cat.html
Play Date: 07/09/2007
CELG (Celgene--$59.04; +0.96; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume jumped well above average Monday as CELG broke higher over the 90 day SMA, moving through the 50 day EMA (59.20), but unable to close the deal on the session. CELG made us some great money in its prior runs but after a long surge higher it needed a deeper base. This fade to the 90 day SMA is doing that, and CELG has formed a 5 week reverse head and shoulders at the bottom of its 7 week cup that is forming. Like the volume off the bottom and we are looking to get an early start on CELG as it continues the break higher on strong trade.
Volume: 5.001M Avg Volume: 4.194M
BUY POINT: $59.78 Volume=5.5M Target=$68.95 Stop=$57.95
POSITION: LQH JL - Oct. $60c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/celg.html
Play Date: 07/09/2007
ORB (Orbital Sciences--$21.63; -0.17; optionable): Aerospace/defense products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orb.html
EARNINGS: 7-19-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ORB is fading back on low, below average volume the past week as it tests the late June run higher that formed the right side of its 9 week base. Excellent pattern that has formed on the heels of the late April breakout from a larger 6.5 month base. It did not get a chance to run very far on that breakout, but these base on base patterns tend to really set the stage for a good run. Excellent test and now just need to see strong volume as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 323.5K Avg Volume: 570.241K
BUY POINT: $22.25 Volume=850K Target=$26.75 Stop=$21.11
POSITION: ORB LD - Dec. $20c (69 delta, 384 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/orb.html
Play Date: 07/09/2007
WFT (Weatherford International--$57.20; +1.06; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wft.html
EARNINGS: 7-23-07
STATUS: Ascending base. WFT is working higher toward the breakout from its 10 week base that formed making higher lows along the 50 day EMA (54.30) and bumping into peaks in the 57 to 58 range. Indeed, it is back up at 57 and setting up for the breakout. Bigger picture this is working as the handle to a 15 month cup with handle base. Just waiting for WFT to show us the volume as it shows the breakout move.
Volume: 3.769M Avg Volume: 4.432M
BUY POINT: $57.78 Volume=6M Target=$66.50 Stop=$55.45
POSITION: WFT KK - Nov. $55c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wft.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, EDU, GME, GOOG, MA, PCLN, NVDA, VLO
AKAM: Up over $2 after hours, pushing the 200 day SMA at 50.13. That would be a key break for AKAM but typically it is a better play to enter on the test after that break.
GME: Nice break higher.
GOOG: Doji after a good run higher on lower volume. Not getting too worked up over this, however.
MA: Getting set up for the next break higher after this test of the 18 day EMA.
VLO: It is up to the top of its 7 week trading range. Watching it closely if it breaks over 78 we will start some positions.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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