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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CMI; EDU; GME; GMRK; ININ; JEC; LUFK; SIMO; VSEA
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/09/2007
CAT (Caterpillar--$79.83; +1.02; optionable): Heavy machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cat.html
EARNINGS: 7-20-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. The heavy machinery is moving again and CAT showed some solid, above average volume Monday as it sprang off the 50 day EMA following a two week test back to that level. CAT made us some nice money on its last run higher after gapping up in late April in earnings and running up the 18 day EMA (79.26) to 78 in mid-June. It is now approaching earnings again and has a nice pullback to the 50 day to set the next move higher. On the last move CAT rallied to the May 2006 high, the high in the 15 month base. We anticipate that CAT will take that level out this time around. Looking to move in as CAT continues to purr higher.
Volume: 6.499M Avg Volume: 5.61M
BUY POINT: $80.95 Volume=8M Target=$94.95 Stop=$78.68
POSITION: CAT KP - Nov. $80c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cat.html
Play Date: 07/09/2007
FCN (FTI Consulting--$39.26; +0.64; optionable): Expert consulting services for law firms, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. FCN is perched at an all-time high, setting up this nice 10 week base using the 50 day EMA (36.84) as support on the lows of the pattern. Broke higher to start the month and then after a quick 3-day test to the 10 day EMA, it bounced Monday on rising though below average volume. The move took FCN to a new high, and if it continues on some volume we will be ready to move in. Solid stock with great fundamentals growth rates to go with its strong pattern, and the leader in its sector. A perennial leader.
Volume: 334.7K Avg Volume: 473.45K
BUY POINT: $39.57 Volume=525K Target=$45.50 Stop=$37.55
POSITION: FCN LG - Dec. $35c (54 delta, 546 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fcn.html
Play Date: 07/09/2007
GIVN (Given Imaging--$30.70; +0.20; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/givn.html
EARNINGS: 8-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. GIVN has come back to test the 10 day EMA after surging the last week of June to make the break from its big 18 month cup with handle base. Huge volume on the breakout, and now it is giving us the test, a nice orderly pullback to near support. Monday it tested further and then started the break higher on some solid volume. Excellent money flow is leading higher and it looks as if GIVN is already starting the rebound. Looking to move in as GIVN renews its break higher.
Volume: 246.05K Avg Volume: 189.447K
BUY POINT: $31.32 Volume=285K Target=$37.65 Stop=$29.55
POSITION: QPG KF - Nov. $30c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/givn.html
Play Date: 07/09/2007
NTGR (Netgear--$38.27; +1.37; optionable): Networking/communication gear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntgr.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume surged Monday as NTGR gapped higher and cleared the May and June highs in its 9 week base. The move took NTGR to a new closing high, and we are ready to move in as NTGR continues this break higher. NTGR is tops in its sector and this is a nice base to send it higher.
Volume: 1.168M Avg Volume: 707.259K
BUY POINT: $38.52 Volume=715K Target=$44.95 Stop=$36.55
POSITION: TUD LG - Dec. $35c (72 delta, 344 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntgr.html
Play Date: 07/09/2007
WFT (Weatherford International--$57.20; +1.06; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wft.html
EARNINGS: 7-23-07
STATUS: Ascending base. WFT is working higher toward the breakout from its 10 week base that formed making higher lows along the 50 day EMA (54.30) and bumping into peaks in the 57 to 58 range. Indeed, it is back up at 57 and setting up for the breakout. Bigger picture this is working as the handle to a 15 month cup with handle base. Just waiting for WFT to show us the volume as it shows the breakout move.
Volume: 3.769M Avg Volume: 4.432M
BUY POINT: $57.78 Volume=6M Target=$66.50 Stop=$55.45
POSITION: WFT KK - Nov. $55c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wft.html
CURRENT PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/02/2007
AGU (Agrium--$44.66; -0.37; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-3-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher Monday but even lower volume so it could not make the break stick. Still like the pattern and still looking for the break higher. To recap: AGU surged out of its 9 week double bottom base two weeks back, surging higher on strong volume. It hit 46 on the breakout run, moving to a new all-time high. It came back the past two weeks, tapping at the 18 day EMA last week intraday and then rebounded to hold the 10 day on the close (44.09). Nice test and set up well to continue the breakout move. Great sector and a great stock.
Volume: 547.2K Avg Volume: 1.34M
BUY POINT: $45.25 Volume=1.6M Target=$53.95 Stop=$43.21
POSITION: AGU JI - Oct. $45c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/agu.html
Play Date: 07/07/2007
AMT (American Tower--$43.27; -0.22; optionable): Communication towers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Took a breather Monday after the strong Friday bounce, still set up to make the break and make us that money. To recap: AMT is an old winner for us, and it has set up a very nice base once more to make the breakout and most importantly, make us money. It has formed a short 5 week base using the 50 day EMA (41.43) on the two legs as support. Strong move to start last week, then a fade back to the 10 day EMA on Friday before reversing intraday and posting a solid gain on rising though below average volume. AMT is ready for a 7 year high, and we are looking to move in as AMT continues the move with some volume. A really sweet little pattern.
Volume: 1.316M Avg Volume: 2.492M
BUY POINT: $43.75 Volume=3.5M Target=$49.95 Stop=$42.11
POSITION: AMT JZ - Oct. $42.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amt.html
Play Date: 07/07/2007
FDS (Factset Research--$68.88; +0.45; optionable): Financial & economic data to financial organizations
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fds.html
EARNINGS: 6-19-2007
STATUS: Breakout test. Low volume persisted Monday as FDS tapped the 10 day EMA again and bounced higher. Still in the lateral test, still looking for it to make the next break higher. Nice pattern. To recap: FDS reported some strong earnings mid-June and that gapped it higher and out of a 13 week base. It surged to 70 and then faded to test, holding the 10 day EMA (67.98) as it consolidated during the late June market chop. It has leveled out and is trading in a very tight, flat range on very low volume. The quiet before the storm. Looking for FDS to make the next break higher and when it makes that move with some volume, we move in.
Volume: 126.9K Avg Volume: 290.533K
BUY POINT: $69.48 Volume=440K Target=$79.95 Stop=$67.77
POSITION: FDS IM - Sept. $65c (70 delta) or FDS LN - Dec. $70c (43 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fds.html
Play Date: 06/25/2007
RATE (Bankrate--$49.13; -0.27; optionable): Online banking services and products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rate.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice doji with tail at the 10 day EMA Monday as RATE is coiling for the break higher. Just need to see the volume as it moves. To recap: RATE blasted higher three weeks back, surging out of an 18 week cup with handle base, rallying on strong volume. It peaked at 51.32 last week and has tested back to the 18 day EMA on the lows. Money flow is still running higher ahead of price. Showing a lot of buy side strength and looking to move in again as RATE makes the break higher.
Volume: 249.275K Avg Volume: 411.795K
BUY POINT: $49.78 Volume=741K Target=$57.45 Stop=$47.58
POSITION: QIB KJ - Nov. $50c (48 delta) or QIB HI - Aug. $45c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rate.html
Play Date: 07/02/2007
SMSC (Standard Microsystems--$36.05; +0.19; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smsc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-27-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Still a very nice pullback on low volume as the 10 day EMA (35.16) rises to meet it. May come all the way back but ready to move in as SMSC makes the next break higher on some rising trade. To recap: SMSC surged out of a nicely formed 10 week reverse head and shoulders in late June on the earnings announcement, blasting higher on strong, strong volume. It made a quick test, and then was back on the move higher on a return to higher volume. Excellent. Ready to move in as SMSC continues the move higher.
Volume: 167.997K Avg Volume: 285.511K
BUY POINT: $36.58 Volume=300K Target=$43.95 Stop=$34.02
POSITION: SMQ JG - Oct. $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/smsc.html
Play Date: 06/27/2007
WFR (Memc Electronic--$63.09; +0.89; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Gapped higher Monday though no volume to push it. Still working on the handle after bouncing up off its 50 day EMA two weeks back. Looks very solid for the break higher; just needs some volume. To recap: WFR broke higher off the 50 day EMA (59.18) on rising, average volume in late June. The move started it toward the break over the May and early June highs, and that will give us the buy point. Looking for some more volume as it makes the break. WFR was a big winner for us to start the year, and after this base we are looking for WFR to deliver some more.
Volume: 3.636M Avg Volume: 5.854M
BUY POINT: New: $62.82 (orig. $62.05) Volume=8.2M Target=$71.95 Stop=$56.96
POSITION: WFR JL - Oct. $60c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wfr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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