|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: BIDU; DIOD; LUFK
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 07/10/2007
ASCA (Ameristar Casinos--$35.81; -0.38; optionable): Resorts and casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asca.html
EARNINGS: 5-1-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. ASCA is making the second test of its mid-June breakout from a 12 week double bottom with handle base. Big gap higher on strong volume and now a second low volume test of the 10 day EMA (35.62) is setting up the next bounce higher. Excellent money flow is leading the way. Just looking for the next bounce higher to move into the play so to speak.
Volume: 311.378K Avg Volume: 595.933K
BUY POINT: $36.31 Volume=700K Target=$41.95 Stop=$35.05
POSITION: UWT LG - Dec. $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/asca.html
Play Date: 07/10/2007
MUR (Murphy Oil--$61.60; -0.08; optionable): Oil and gas refining & marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mur.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Test breakout. MUR broke out from a 7 week double bottom with handle Monday on rising, above average volume. Not a huge breakout but a nice surge. Tuesday it matched the move, but with the market softness it could not advance. Nice little base that formed after the early April breakout from a larger 10 month base. Nice set up for a new high, perched on top of that other base and ready to strike.
Volume: 1.24M Avg Volume: 1.422M
BUY POINT: $61.89 Volume=1.8M Target=$73.95 Stop=$60.11
POSITION: MUR JL - Oct. $60c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mur.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Defying the market and still moving higher. Reminds you of DELL back in the second half of the 1990's
BIDU: Researching the next split date. Another stock that is ignoring the market, moving up at will.
CHAP: Forecast second week of July.
CHE: No split announced in June. Nice tight lateral move over the 10 day EMA.
CHTT: Forecast third week of July. No split as it gapped higher on good earnings but then reversed in the market selling to the 50 day EMA.
CLB: Forecast third week of July
CLF: Researching the date. Excellent lateral move is setting up the handle to the short base. Anticipating a massive break higher.
CMTL: Researching date.
COH: Forecast 7-24-07
CTRP: Researching next date as no announcement with its strong earnings.
CVX: Forecast mid-July
DE: Forecast late August
DIOD: Announced its split and is running higher on strong volume.
DLTR: Tentatively forecast 8-15-07. Thud. The dollar tree fall hard to the 50 day EMA.
EXC: Tentatively forecast 7-26-07
FCN: Researching date.
GSOL: Researching the date.
HRS: Forecast last August.
HURN: Wildcard. Researching date. Still looking for that real breakaway move.
MA: Researching the next date
MBT: Tentatively forecast third week of July
NOV: Forecast late July
OSK: Forecast last week of July, first week of August.
RL: No announcement with earnings.
SSYS: Forecast third week of July. Trying to hold the 50 day EMA
TEX: Forecast 7-25-07
SU: Forecast third week of July
XTO: Forecast early August
VIP: Researching date.
WFT: Forecast 7-23-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/10/2007
RS (Reliance Steel--$59.47; -0.84; optionable): Metal fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rs.html
EARNINGS: 7-19-07
STATUS: Double bottom. RS gapped higher Monday on a strong shot of above average volume. That cleared the 'hump' in a short 8 week base. Tuesday it could not complete the move, slipping back below the hump at 60. Volume appropriately faded on this pullback. Looks as if it is going to try and form a handle to its base and that could take 2 to 3 more days. It closed on the 50 day SMA Tuesday, and we would like to see it hold here to form the handle as it is a good support level to break it higher. Nice action after a good rally in the spring. Very nice set up for the next run higher.
Volume: 966.912K Avg Volume: 1.179M
BUY POINT: $60.85 Volume=1.8M Target=$69.95 Stop=$58.11
POSITION: RS LL - Dec. $60c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rs.html
Play Date: 07/10/2007
VLO (Valero Energy--$77.71; +0.76; optionable): Oil and gas refining, marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vlo.html
EARNINGS: 7-31-07
STATUS: Ascending base. VLO bucked the market trend Tuesday, continuing its move higher as it cleared the June highs on rising, average volume. It closed almost 1 point off the session high; it may try to pause here before continuing higher. Whether it continues higher from here or slides laterally for a few sessions we want to be ready to move in as it makes the next break higher. If it continued from here we will take a half position and then let it test the move. When it bounces from there we will buy the remaining position.
Volume: 11.524M Avg Volume: 11.629M
BUY POINT: $77.95 Volume=13M Target=$90.95 Stop=$75.08
POSITION: ZPY IO - Sept. $75c (68 delta) or ZPY LP - Dec. $80c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vlo.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/30/2007
CHAP (Chaparral Steel Company--$75.69; +1.18; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chap.html
EARNINGS: 7-11-07 after the close
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice test of the 10 day EMA on the Tuesday low and a rebound on rising average volume. Nice break from the 8 week base that used the 50 day EMA as support. Looking to move in as the stock moves higher ahead of earnings. Riskier with earnings, but nice pattern and good position.
Volume: 936.591K Avg Volume: 881.102K
BUY POINT: $76.38 Volume=1.3M Target=$89.95 Stop=$73.18
POSITION: ZHQ JO - Oct. $75c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chap.html
Play Date: 07/07/2007
COH (Coach--$49.14; -0.29; optionable): Handbags, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Pausing under the 90 day EMA on some lower volume for the session as COH rests before preceding higher once more. To recap: Volume jumped above average Thursday and Friday as COH moved off of the second bottom of what is shaping up to be an 11-week base. After a strong August to April move it needed a good base to set up for the next move higher. Nice reload and we like how volume moved in as it started off the lows to end the week; solid volume in some low volume sessions. We are looking to move in ahead of the move over the 'hump' at 52, but we like the life coming off this second bottom. As if completes the base and then breaks out again down the road we will look to move in then as well.
Volume: 3.576M Avg Volume: 3.574M
BUY POINT: $49.85 Volume=5M Target=$57.45 Stop=$47.88
POSITION: COH KW - Nov. $47.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 07/09/2007
FCN (FTI Consulting--$38.88; -0.38; optionable): Expert consulting services for law firms, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped lower but considering the market action, not bad at all. Still in excellent shape to move higher. To recap: FCN is perched at an all-time high, setting up this nice 10 week base using the 50 day EMA (36.84) as support on the lows of the pattern. Broke higher to start the month and then after a quick 3-day test to the 10 day EMA, it bounced Monday on rising though below average volume. The move took FCN to a new high, and if it continues on some volume we will be ready to move in. Solid stock with great fundamentals growth rates to go with its strong pattern, and the leader in its sector. A perennial leader.
Volume: 453.2K Avg Volume: 473.45K
BUY POINT: $39.57 Volume=525K Target=$45.50 Stop=$37.55
POSITION: FCN LG - Dec. $35c (54 delta, 546 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fcn.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/30/2007
FUL (H.B. Fuller--$29.70; -0.35; optionable): Specialty chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ful.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in that excellent pullback, tapping the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounding to recoup most of the losses. Excellent money flow and just looking for the next break higher. To recap: Looks as if the test is just about over as FUL spent Thursday and Friday tapping the 10 day on the intraday lows and rebounding. Nice action and we are just waiting for the bounce higher on more trade to move in.
Volume: 666.4K Avg Volume: 623.747K
BUY POINT: $30.45 Volume=982K Target=$36.55 Stop=$28.65
POSITION: FUL KF - Nov. $30c (57 delta, 158 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ful.html
Play Date: 07/05/2007
SUG (Southern Union--$33.11; -0.39; optionable): Gas utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sug.html
EARNINGS: 8-9-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Low volume persists as SUG makes its test of the 18 day EMA, still ready to make the next break higher. Forming a bit of a right shoulder to a reverse head and shoulders base at the bottom of its current pattern. Just needs to show the break higher on rising trade. To recap: SUG spent the month of June and the market volatility testing back to the 50 day EMA (32.43), consolidating the strong moved in early and late May that took SUG to a new all-time high. Nice low volume on the pullback. Trade surged Thursday as SUG bounced off the 50 day and buyers moved in. Money flow is solid and we are ready to move in as SUG continues its move higher off of this key support.
Volume: 414.7K Avg Volume: 580.416K
BUY POINT: $33.57 Volume=700K Target=$39.95 Stop=$32.21
POSITION: SUG IF - Sept. $30c (82 delta, 262 OI) or SUG LG - Dec. $35c (46 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sug.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/02/2007
SMSC (Standard Microsystems--$35.21; -0.84; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smsc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-27-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Gapped lower but held the 10 day EMA on low volume, rebounding to hold that near support on the close. Good shakeout and now we look for the move higher. To recap: SMSC surged out of a nicely formed 10 week reverse head and shoulders in late June on the earnings announcement, blasting higher on strong, strong volume. It made a quick test, and then was back on the move higher on a return to higher volume. Excellent. Ready to move in as SMSC continues the move higher.
Volume: 189.697K Avg Volume: 285.511K
BUY POINT: $36.58 Volume=300K Target=$43.95 Stop=$34.02
POSITION: SMQ JG - Oct. $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/smsc.html
Play Date: 06/28/2007
WFR (Memc Electronic--$62.03; -1.06; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-26-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. You have to like how WFR is going about its business of forming the handle to its 10 week base, ignoring the market selling. May take another session or two to make the breakout, but given its relative strength we have to be ready for the breakout. To recap: WFR broke higher off the 50 day EMA (59.18) on rising, average volume in late June. The move started it toward the break over the May and early June highs, and that will give us the buy point. Looking for some more volume as it makes the break. WFR was a big winner for us to start the year, and after this base we are looking for WFR to deliver some more.
Volume: 3.362M Avg Volume: 5.854M
BUY POINT: New: $62.82 (orig. $62.05) Volume=8.2M Target=$71.95 Stop=$56.96
POSITION: WFR JL - Oct. $60c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
