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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ALY; BCSI; CMI; EDU; HOKU; ICE; PCLN
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/11/2007
DVR (Cal Dive Intl.--$17.57; +0.20; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dvr.html
EARNINGS: 8-1-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. We are looking at DVR again as well as it has come back to the 10 day EMA (17.32) after that series of 4 consecutive gaps that saw an intraday reversal Monday. It broke higher in mid-June, putting the teeth in a breakout from an 8 week base. We wanted to pick it off after that first test, but it gapped away. Now with this test it is set up to give us another entry point as it trends higher above near support. Re-issued in December 2006, DVR has put together a great pattern here.
Volume: 540.9K Avg Volume: 533.926K
BUY POINT: $17.94 Volume=800K Target=$21.50 Stop=$16.98
POSITION: DVR JW - Oct. $17.50c (49 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/dvr.html
Play Date: 07/11/2007
HPQ (Hewlett-Packard--$45.65; +0.71; optionable): PC's, printers, hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hpq.html
EARNINGS: 8-16-07
STATUS: Flat. HPQ is back on the report as it shook out on light volume down to the 50 day EMA (44.73) once more and then roared back on strong volume Wednesday. It has moved laterally in a 9 week range, letting the 50 day EMA catch up to it following a nice breakout and run in April and May. Like the action Wednesday and just need to let HPQ show us the move.
Volume: 18.21M Avg Volume: 13.473M
BUY POINT: $46.32 Volume=20M Target=$53.32 Stop=$44.48
POSITION: HPQ KI - Nov. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hpq.html
Play Date: 07/11/2007
PCAR (Paccar--$91.40; -0.25; optionable): Trucks, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcar.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-07
STATUS: Breakout test. PCAR gapped higher Monday on strong, above average volume (the best in a month) as it cleared a 10 week trading range from 85 to 90. Strong break that took PCAR to a new high and this test is showing a nice doji with tail that tapped the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday low as trade faded from the breakout. Excellent money flow is leading higher. Like how PCAR is perched for a break higher and run at 100.
Volume: 1.763M Avg Volume: 1.767M
BUY POINT: $92.04 Volume=2.2M Target=$105.95 Stop=$89.89
POSITION: PAQ KR - Nov. $90c (58 delta, 349 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/pcar.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 07/11/2007
ALJ (Alon USA Energy--$45.43; -0.69; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alj.html
EARNINGS: 8-9-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. ALJ is the leader in its sector right now and it is making a test of the 10 day EMA (45.35), coming back on its third test of near support following the early June breakout from a 7 week cup with handle base that acted as the handle to a much larger 10 month double bottom with handle base. We are looking to get another good run or two out of ALJ on this breakout run before it needs to test lower.
Volume: 316.7K Avg Volume: 433.36K
BUY POINT: $46.45 Volume=500K Target=$52.45 Stop=$44.31
POSITION: ALJ II - Sept. $45c (57 delta, 126 OI) or ALJ LI - Dec. $45c (52 delta, 194 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/alj.html
Play Date: 07/11/2007
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$85.55; -0.31; optionable): Chinese travel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
EARNINGS: 8-15-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Very nice test of the last breakout, a surge out of a short 6 week cup with handle base that was formed after the breakout in mid-May from a 15 week base. Wednesday CTRP reached way down to the 10 day EMA on the low (83.36) and rebounded, showing a nice doji with tail that often signals a pullback is over, particularly in a strong stock. Looking to move in as CTRP rebounds from another nice test of a nice breakout.
Volume: 334.79K Avg Volume: 319.705K
BUY POINT: $86.05 Volume=425K Target=$99.95 Stop=$83.31
POSITION: QCT IQ - Sept. $85c (56 delta) or QCT LR - Dec. $90c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctrp.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, EDU, GME, GOOG, MA, PCLN, NVDA, VLO
AKAM: Tremendous volume as AKAM cracked the 200 day SMA. Looking for it to move further through and then test. If it can hold that test and blast higher again, then it is a buy.
CELG: Still setting up nicely for the next run higher that will form the right side of its base.
GME: After that big day Monday GME has given much of the move back, but very low trade and it is still holding well above the 10 day EMA. Needs to show us another surge here.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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