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stock recommendation, stock market report
Begin Part 3 of 3
Looking at again:
MONE (Matrixone--$15.15; +0.42; optionable): Internet Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mone.html
STATUS: MONE has been stepping its way higher since early November, using the short term moving averages in earnest since early December when the stock sustained its move over the 50 day MVA. We covered the pattern when it squeezed up to the 200 day MVA in late December and after breaking out over the resistance in January, MONE has tested that move. It now looks ready for its first bounce from the 18 day MVA subsequent to the 200 day MVA test. After pulling back to the support (14.58) on decreasing volume, the stock got a stronger surge Friday (1.36 million; avg. 742,000), and bounced for a small gain. Looking for a continued move upward; January high is 16.95. Good money flow and buying. Target is 20.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 15.60 on continued strong volume. Stop: 14.51 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or May $12.50 calls to buy (MOU EV).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dtc.html
Puts:
EMLX (Emulex--$46.35; +0.34; optionable): Computer Hardware: Peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/emlx.html
STATUS: Steadily trended up from the fall lows and has formed a double a double top in January (highs at the 48 range), and with the stock trying to climb up to the second high on overall lower volume, we think it is getting ready for a fall out of the pattern. Has been holding the 18 day MVA for 8 days and Friday held well above that support with a doji and lower volume (8.1 million; avg. 8.7 million). Tombstone dojis at the top of a run, however, signal a move down. On a break of the 18 day MVA (currently at 43.90), will look for a fall to the 50 day MVA at 39.27. Aggressive positions on a move down from here on strong volume.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 45 on strong and rising volume. Below the 18 day MVA: 43.50 on strong volume.
POSITION: March $55 puts to buy (UMQ OK).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/emlx.html
CCMP (Cabot Microelectronics--$65.12; -1.16; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccmp.html
STATUS: Broke below the 200 day MVA just over a week ago, bounced back up to it but has been unable to hold a move back over. The stock opened Friday at its short term down trendline that coincides with the major resistance, tapped the higher 10 day MVA (67.02) but on low volume was back below the 200 day to end the day (644,100; avg. 1.14 million). Low volume moves up to resistance often fail. Looking for the "kiss good-bye" for a move down to 60 for an initial target (January lows). Below that, 55.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 64.75 on strong and rising volume.
POSITION: April $80 puts to buy (UKR PP).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ccmp.html
SMTC (Semtech--$33.27; -1.34; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smtc.html
STATUS: SMTC fell below the 50 day MVA earlier in January and ultimately broke the 200 day MVA (now at 33.91) for a drop to 32. It recovered over that level but Friday reversed and closed back down below the 200 day MVA on stronger volume (1.3 million; average). Aggressive positions on a move down from here for target at 30, then 28.Some potential support just above 32.
BUY POINT: Aggressive from here: 33. Below support: 32 on above average and rising volume.
POSITION: March $40 puts to buy (QTU OH).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/smtc.html
CONTINUED PLAYS:
TEST OF BREAKOUT:
EGOV (National Info Consortium--$4.10; +0.21; no options):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/egov.html
STATUS: Still looking good in the test of the breakout, having moved back over the 18 day MVA Thursday on higher volume (which was up again Friday to 69,600; avg. 111,000). Continue to look for a bounce up from here; the stock rebounded from the 50 day MVA at the end of December for the breakout. Excellent money flow and buying. Target: 6
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 4.30 on volume of 113,000 or higher. Stop: 4.00
(7%)
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/egov.html
AZPN (Aspen Tech--$19.19; -0.71; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/azpn.html
STATUS: Reversed its trend with a strong gap over its 200 day MVA on January 24 when the company reported strong earnings and received upgrades and positive comments. Since then AZPN has consolidated in a sideways fashion on much lower volume, continuing to hold above the previous January highs at 18.66. On Friday the stock cleared the consolidation on the high (20.65) but sold back; volume was nicely lower however at 343,300 (avg. 463,000). The stock hit our buy point of 20.25 on the move. Look for a hold at that support which is in the range of the 10 day MVA at 18.68). Strong money flow and buying. AZPN is off the lows near 9 in a 3.5-year base. Target: 25
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 20.25 on 465,000 or higher volume. Stop: 18.83 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or March or May $17.50 calls to buy (ZQP CW or EW; low open interests).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/azpn.html
USAI (Usa Networks--$28.83; +0.24; optionable): Media
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usai.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout from its 21-week cup with handle pattern. On the breakout four days ago USAI was up to 30.11 but battled sellers on the move and was forced back down, though, it held with a new all-time closing high (29.20). The last 2 days of the week USAI made weak bounces from the 10 day MVA (27.70), explained by continued decreasing volume (4.3 million by Friday; avg. 3.5 million). However, the stock looks ready to move up as it continues to hold support (buy point was 27.95) and we are looking for a stronger move up after this test. Strong money flow and buying. Target: 33
BUY POINT: Riding positions taken at 28.50 and over 28.75 (Thursday). From here, positions over the breakout closing high of 29.20 (aggressive) on volume of 4.5 million or higher. Stop: 27.25 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or April $25 calls to buy (QTH DE).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/usai.html
ACDO (Accredo Health--$48.02; +0.04; optionable): Health Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acdo.html
STATUS: Still holding tight in the test of the breakout, showing its fifth doji above the 18 day MVA in the pullback. The pattern is very tight as volume continues to fall (269,800; avg. 535,000). ACDO is testing the breakout from its June through December flat base, in which the stock flew up on super strong volume, ultimately reaching the January high at 52.25. Good money flow and buying. Target is 60.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 50.15 on volume in the range of 700,000. Stop: 46.64 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or May $40 calls to buy (DZU EH; low open interests).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acdo.html
WEDGES, PENNANTS, and FLYING PLATEAUS (AND FLAGS): These are some of our favorite patterns as the moves can be explosive. In this market, however, we need to see the move on the breakout on strong volume.
GOSHA trades on less than 100,000 average daily volume:
GOSHA (OshKosh B'gosh--$41.35; -0.59; no options): Kid's clothes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gosha.html
STATUS: Earnings are out Thursday at an unspecified time. GOSHA broke out of a cup mid-November and on the test has formed a tight ascending wedge with lows at the 50 day MVA. We picked it up Wednesday as the pattern tightens up in the tail, holding above the 18 day MVA (41.17), where the stock continued to hold Friday. Volume dropped back below average, however, preferable to the high levels of the previous three days so we continue to look for the breakout (volume down to a low 19,900; avg. 45,000). Again, we like the prospects for some retail stocks that are not overextended and showing good patterns such as this. Target: 52
BUY POINT: 43.10 on rising volume (minimum breakout volume is 59,000). Stop: 40.08 (7%)
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gosha.html
CTAS (Cintas--$49.89; -0.13; optionable): Diversified Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctas.html
STATUS: CTAS is in a 6-month cup-type with handle base with the handle continuing to hold very nicely above the 18 day MVA and showing the ascending wedge action. Not a super handle, but we like these wedges for strong breakout potential. In this market we are looking to take profits once we hit our target anyway, or, if a move looks ready to top out at some point before the target. CTAS is tightening up nicely in the pattern, Friday showing a hammer doji on low volume (758,100; avg. 841,000). Money flow looks decent and relative strength is ahead of price. Target: 61
BUY POINT: Breakout: 50.74 on volume of 1.2 million or higher. Stop: 47.19 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or May $45 calls to buy (NQQ EI).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctas.html
BASING/TRADING RANGES:
TRI (Triad Hospitals--$32.34; -0.44; optionable): Health Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tri.html
STATUS: Continues to hold the handle to the 15-week cup as the stock again closed above support of the 18 day MVA (31.50). Showing a tight star doji off a tap of the support, TRI showed stronger volume (474,700; avg. 460,000) as it held up after the sellers tried to push the stock through the 18 day on Thursday. We are looking for a bounce back up toward breakout, and it looks like it is getting closer to making the move. Money flow is ahead of price, a bullish sign. Target: 41
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 32 (10 day MVA at 31.99 Friday) on above average volume. Breakout: 33.75 on volume of 700,000 or higher. Stop: 31.39 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or May $25 or $30 calls to buy (TRI EE or EF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tri.html
DLTR (Dollar Tree Stores--$32.95; -0.06; optionable): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dltr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout from its 25-week cup with handle and now is forming another handle to the base. Volume was very strong on the breakout - strong earnings - but has fallen back below average in this flying plateau-like consolidation (1.06 million Friday; avg. 1.2 million). Tapped the 10 day MVA on the low of 31.84 Friday, and while we may see a continued gradual pullback, look for a breakout over 33.96, the handle high (January). Good buying. Target: 41
BUY POINT: 34.06 on volume of 1.8 million or better. Stop: 31.68 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or March or May $30 calls to buy (DQO CF or EF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dltr.html
Continued Puts:
VIA (Viacom--$38.40; -1.53; optionable): Media
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/via.html
STATUS: Fell through the buy point Wednesday but after bouncing back up still couldn't take out the 40 level resistance with volume strong Thursday. Volume was down again Friday (544,000; avg. 475,000) and the stock fell over a point and a half, and close again to the original buy point (38). Will see if the selling accelerates here for a move down to our target at 32.50.
BUY POINT: For new or additional positions: 38 on rising volume.
POSITION: May $50 puts to buy (VIA QJ).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/via.html
JPM (J.P. Morgan Chase--$32.16; -1.89; optionable): Banking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jpm.html
STATUS: Reversed its downside action Wednesday after hitting 30.40 (target 29) and next session was back above the down trendline, but by Friday JPM was once more below it with volume rising again (13.7 million; avg. 8.5 million). We were watching it carefully Thursday as it hit a high at 34.10; we did not want to get a strong move over 34 (the stock was still below its 10 day MVA which had pushed it back since mid-month). For aggressive buy points for adding to existing or creating new positions, a move below 32 on higher volume. Initial target: 29
BUY POINT: Made the Wednesday report's aggressive buy point at 33. New: 32 on continued rising volume.
POSITION: March $40 puts to buy (JPM OH).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jpm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock market report
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