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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ASIA; CMED; DO; HAL; MTL; RIO; SID
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/23/2007
AVT (Avnet--$43.30; -0.48; optionable): Wholesale electronics distributor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avt.html
EARNINGS: 8-8-07
STATUS: Test breakout. AVT jumped sharply higher Thursday after news it was acquiring another company. The move broke it out of an 11 week flat base consolidating the strong January to April run from the breakout of a long, long base. Big 5 to 1 accumulation in this last base (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows nearly all buying, setting AVT up for the breakout and next run higher. Friday AVT traded a bit lower and it continued the modest pullback Monday with a light, below average volume fade. May may consolidate another session or two before continuing the run, but we will be patient and let it resume the move and then we make our move. AVT has some of the best earnings growth rates in the market and its strength shows it.
Volume: 1.541M Avg Volume: 1.969M
BUY POINT: $44.22 Volume=2.9M Target=$51.95 Stop=$41.78
POSITION: AVT KI - Nov. $45c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avt.html
Play Date: 07/23/2007
CF (CF Industries--$62.62; -1.06; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cf.html
EARNINGS: 7-30-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. CF is in the strong agricultural chemicals group, and it is preparing to make the next bounce off the near support at the 18 day EMA (62.25) as it continues the breakout move from its 12 week ascending base back in early June. Strong volume on the last break higher and then a nice easy low volume test back to the support that has triggered the prior runs higher. Looking for CF to bounce nicely off of this test of support and give us an entry as it runs another 10 to 15 points. Excellent growth in its fundamentals to go along with its pattern.
Volume: 885.1K Avg Volume: 1.356M
BUY POINT: $63.85 Volume=1.5M Target=$76.45 Stop=$62.11
POSITION: CF KM - Nov. $65c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cf.html
Play Date: 07/23/2007
COP (ConocoPhillips--$85.63; -0.67; optionable): Integrated oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cop.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07 before the open
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Nice doji Monday, tapping the 18 day EMA (84.36) on the low and rebounding to post a modest loss on a third day of below average volume. Good to see the lower trade as COP tests its last run higher off the 50 day EMA. COP broke out from a 6 month base in May, tested the 50 day in late June, and then got it in gear, rallying to 90. We are looking to use this test as an entry point and grab on to make a run for 100.
Volume: 12.133M Avg Volume: 12.254M
BUY POINT: $86.39 Volume=14M Target=$99.75 Stop=$84.21
POSITION: COP KG - Nov. $85c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cop.html
Play Date: 07/23/2007
DRQ (Dril-Quip--$49.57; +0.71; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drq.html
EARNINGS: 8-1-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. DRQ broke higher last Thursday after a test of the 90 day SMA intraday Wednesday and then the rebound to the close with the market. Friday it tested; good action forming the handle to its 11 week base. This base formed after the March breakout and run up to a new high at 52. DRQ is consolidating that move and with the strength in the sector the earnings are showing, it is ready to make the next breakout to another new high. Monday it gapped higher, but it could not hold its high. Looks ready to move. Very solid and yet another stock on the report that sports some of the top earnings growth rates in the market.
Volume: 342.6K Avg Volume: 567.816K
BUY POINT: $49.75 Volume=795K Target=$58.95 Stop=$47.55
POSITION: DRQ LJ - Dec. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/drq.html
Play Date: 07/23/2007
STP (Suntech Power Holdings--$41.80; -0.54; optionable): Photovoltaic cells and modules
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stp.html
EARNINGS: 8-9-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Big surge in late June through early July, topping out near 45 on that move. It broke out from a 16 week double bottom in early July on some excellent volume, rallying back up to its IPO highs near 45. It has paused at that level and has faded to test, holding at the 10 day EMA (41.54) on lower volume. Excellent set up to give us an entry into this strong stock that sports very strong fundamentals growth rates to go with its pattern.
Volume: 2.249M Avg Volume: 2.637M
BUY POINT: $42.88 Volume=3M Target=$49.95 Stop=$40.92
POSITION: STP LH - Dec. $40c 64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stp.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/16/2007
CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs--$83.45; -0.25; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clf.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07 after the close
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Low volume continued Monday as CLF faded, undercutting the 18 day EMA intraday but then finishing at that level. Nice low volume shakeout ahead of earnings is setting CLF up for the breakout from its short but nicely formed 7 week base that is ready to take CLF to a new all-time high.
Volume: 637.3K Avg Volume: 1.571M
BUY POINT: $85.31 Volume=2.2M Target=$99.95 Stop=$82.21
POSITION: CLF JQ - Oct. $85c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/clf.html
Play Date: 07/19/2007
GLDN (Golden Telecom--$67.65; +1.15; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gldn.html
EARNINGS: 8-8-07
STATUS: Flying plateau. Working laterally still, moving on low volume and waiting for the 10 day EMA (66.18) to catch up and send it higher. Nice breakout and run in early July as GLDN broke out from a short 8 week cup. Excellent and action and just patiently waiting for the break higher to give us the buy point.
Volume: 240.816K Avg Volume: 378.839K
BUY POINT: $68.65 Volume=550K Target=$78.95 Stop=$65.62
POSITION: QDV LN - Dec. $70c (49 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gldn.html
Play Date: 07/12/2007
MON (Monsanto--$69.73; +0.69; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-28-07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Still good action as MON works laterally as the 10 day EMA (68.89) comes up from below. Looking for that to trigger MON on its next run.
Volume: 3.564M Avg Volume: 3.442M
BUY POINT: $69.89 Volume=3.5M Target=$79.95 Stop=$67.21
POSITION: MON JM - Oct. $65c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mon.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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