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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: VDSI; WFR
New Plays: Looking for an upside bounce and looking at some very strong stocks that held up in the selling as they will be leaders in any rebound. After a rebound we can look at some downside as well.
Upside:
Play Date: 07/26/2007
GSF (Globalsantafe--$75.00; -2.09; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsf.html
EARNINGS: 8-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. GSF has made us good money on its run higher, and as it tests the Monday gap higher after announced a merger with RIG it has tested back, using the market selling to fill the gap. That is setting it up for the next move higher as it has shown great strength even in this market selling, using it for its own purposes. We are looking to move in and catch GSF as it continues back up. Two sectors of the oil portion of energy held up (drilling and services), and GSF is on the first and is set up to move again.
Volume: 8.012M Avg Volume: 4.988M
BUY POINT: $76.22 Volume=6M Target=$87.85 Stop=$74.11
POSITION: GSF JO - Oct. $75c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gsf.html
Play Date: 07/26/2007
PFWD (Phase Forward--$17.52; -0.48; optionable): Software for use in clinical trial and drug safety monitoring
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfwd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-07
STATUS: Test breakout. PFWD surged higher Wednesday on tremendous volume as it announces strong earnings results. Thursday it tested back to the 18 day EMA on the low, but then rebounded, doing a very good job of recovering in a weak market. The break higher finally gave PFWD a clear break from a 7 month cup with handle. We are looking to move in as it continues back up off of this test.
Volume: 511.54K Avg Volume: 314.811K
BUY POINT: $18.11 Volume=400K Target=$21.95 Stop=$16.84
POSITION: UTO JW - Oct. $17.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pfwd.html
Play Date: 07/26/2007
POT (Potash--$78.37; +1.09; optionable): Nonmetallic mineral mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pot.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07 before the open.
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After a strong run higher up the 18 day EMA from April to mid July, POT needed a deeper test. With earnings coming it was the perfect time to take it, falling to the 50 day EMA (75.88) this week to catch its breath, using the selling as its cover. After a strong run up the 18 day EMA you look for a test of the 50 day EMA. The best move is a nice, crisp bounce off of this level. POT's earnings tried to provide the catalyst on Thursday but it faded back from the 10 day EMA (80.72). If we get some good volume we will move in ahead of the 10 day.
Volume: 5.473M Avg Volume: 3.325M
BUY POINT: $79.22 Volume=5M Target=$91.45 Stop=$74.88
POSITION: PVZ LP - Dec. $80c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pot.html
Play Date: 07/26/2007
RIMM (Research in Motion--$223.64; -1.72; optionable): Handheld wireless communication devices. Splits 3:1 on 8/21/07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: 9-27-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. RIMM exploded higher in late June and continued higher for us into mid-July, making us a lot of money on that run. This week it has come back, dumping down toward the 18 day EMA (216.80), using the market selling to take a breather, holding above 220 on the lows. While the market struggled Thursday, RIMM tried to move higher on Apple's coattails but could not hold it. Showing a lot of pop still, and looking to move in as it makes the next break higher.
Volume: 8.789M Avg Volume: 7.295M
BUY POINT: $225.55 Volume=10M Target=$249.50 Stop=$219.22
POSITION: RFY IF - Sept. $230c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rimm.html
New buy point on current positions:
Play Date: 07/26/2007
DO (Diamond Offshore--$106.36; -3.89; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
EARNINGS: 7/26/07 before the open
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. DO announced earnings before the open, and given the panic in the market early on (and later in the day as well), DO gapped lower. It held the 18 day EMA, showing a big doji at that level as volume ramped up sharply. DO remains a market leader even with this pullback. Indeed, it is this pullback that we are looking at to give us another entry point on this strong stock.
Volume: 3.764M Avg Volume: 2.715M
BUY POINT: $107.68 Volume=4M Target=$123.95 Stop=$103.95
POSITION: DO LB - Dec. $110c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/do.html
Play Date: 07/26/2007
HAL (Halliburton--$36.87; -0.68; optionable): Oil services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hal.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7/23/07
STATUS: Test breakout. HAL gapped higher Monday on strong volume, clearing a 9 week cup base on some strong earnings. In the subsequent selling it has come back to test, tapping all the way down at the 50 day SMA on the Thursday low (35.63) and then recovering for a modest loss. Nice shakeout and HAL is set up well to continue the break higher.
Volume: 20.364M Avg Volume: 17.566M
BUY POINT: $37.82 Volume=20M Target=$43.50 Stop=$35.98
POSITION: HAL JT - Oct. $37.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hal.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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