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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
*NOTE: Part 2 follows part 3 this evening.
THE PLAYS
New Plays: Again looking for an upside bounce and looking at some very strong stocks that still held up in the selling last week and are in good shape after Monday. After a rebound we can look at some downside as well.
Upside:
Play Date: 07/30/2007
ALGN (Align Tech--$27.01; -0.07; optionable): Invisalign system for straightening teeth
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/algn.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: Test breakout. ALGN is testing back after gapping higher on its earnings results announced last week. That gap higher took ALGN out of a nicely formed 11 week base with a very flat, tight lateral move from mid-July. Great break higher from a solid pattern, filling the gap Monday on the intraday low (26.36) and then a rebound to close flat. Now that it has filled the gap we will see if ALGN can run for us. It has a great trend but it tends to gobble up ground in a hurry; with this test it is giving us a better entry point than some of the prior moves. Like the test and the fact that it reported solid earnings already.
Volume: 868.805K Avg Volume: 984.336K
BUY POINT: $27.77 Volume=1.2M Target=$33.38 Stop=$2597.00
POSITION: CUA JE - Oct. $25c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/algn.html
Play Date: 07/30/2007
BBBB (Blackboard--$43.46; +0.56; optionable): Multimedia and graphics software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbbb.html
EARNINGS: 7-31-07 after the close
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. BBBB is giving us a nice test of the 50 day EMA (42.17) just ahead of earnings. It broke out from a long base in early May and rallied to 46. After that move it has set up well for the earnings announcement, bouncing some Monday. Aggressive given the earnings after the Tuesday close, but like the set up and looking to move in with some positions ahead of the close.
Volume: 347.23K Avg Volume: 431.73K
BUY POINT: $44.22 Volume=600K Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.39
POSITION: BPU JI - Oct. $45c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bbbb.html
Play Date: 07/30/2007
OIH (Oil Services Hldrs Trust--$179.12; +1.12; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oih.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. OIH is getting right for a buy again so it can once more make us some money. It broke out from a year long base in April and ran higher up the 18 day EMA (180.73). After 5 bounces up the 18 day EMA, it needed a deeper test and has come back to the 50 day EMA (174.93) to test, tapping that level on the Monday intraday low and then bouncing back up nicely. That is what you like to see off the 50 day, and we are looking to move in as OIH continues higher after re-setting its rally with this test of key support.
Volume: 11.433M Avg Volume: 9.828M
BUY POINT: $181.68 Volume=12M Target=$198.95 Stop=$177.55
POSITION: ODL JP - Oct. $180c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oih.html
Play Date: 07/30/2007
POT (Potash--$81.14; +3.41; optionable): Nonmetallic mineral mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pot.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07 before the open.
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After a strong run higher up the 18 day EMA from April to mid July, POT needed a deeper test. With earnings coming it was the perfect time to take it, falling to the 50 day EMA (76.15) last week to catch its breath, using the selling as its cover. After a strong run up the 18 day EMA you look for a test of the 50 day EMA. The best move is a nice, crisp bounce off of this level. POT's earnings tried to provide the catalyst on Thursday but it faded back from the 10 day EMA. Then Monday POT bounced up through the 10 and 18 day EMA and it held the move though volume was lower and below average. Looking for a continued move to give us an entry point.
Volume: 2.759M Avg Volume: 3.288M
BUY POINT: $81.11 Volume=5M Target=$92.45 Stop=$76.32
POSITION: PVZ LP - Dec. $80c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pot.html
Play Date: 07/30/2007
SJR (Shaw Communications--$48.97; -0.38; no options): Broadband cable, internet, etc. in US, Canada.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sjr.html
EARNINGS: 7-13-07
STATUS: Test breakout. SJR broke higher in early July and rallied nicely up the 10 day EMA (48.61). It surged Thursday and then reversed on the session, indicating it needed a pullback to set up for its next move higher. Nice fade back to the 10 day EMA (48.61) on the Monday low and we are looking for SJR to continue the run. It just split and it did not give up any ground other than this little test. Looking for a bounce from here to start it up again and to show us it is time to move in.
Volume: 219.8K Avg Volume: 147.362K
BUY POINT: $50.15 Volume=221K Target=$57.95 Stop=$48.22
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sjr.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/23/2007
DRQ (Dril-Quip--$48.07; +0.95; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drq.html
EARNINGS: 8-1-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Good reach lower Monday and a rebound keeps DRQ set for the breakout. Earnings are Wednesday, so we are leaning toward waiting to see how it is treated afterwards, but service companies have been strong earners and performers in this market so a few positions ahead of earnings won't hurt. To recap: DRQ broke higher last Thursday after a test of the 90 day SMA intraday Wednesday and then the rebound to the close with the market. Friday it tested; good action forming the handle to its 11 week base. This base formed after the March breakout and run up to a new high at 52. DRQ is consolidating that move and with the strength in the sector the earnings are showing, it is ready to make the next breakout to another new high. Monday it gapped higher, but it could not hold its high. Looks ready to move. Very solid and yet another stock on the report that sports some of the top earnings growth rates in the market.
Volume: 431.4K Avg Volume: 561.964K
BUY POINT: $49.75 Volume=795K Target=$58.95 Stop=$47.55
POSITION: DRQ LJ - Dec. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/drq.html
Play Date: 07/24/2007
MIL (Millipore--$79.32; +0.59; optionable): Life science technology and services for development of drugs, vaccines, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mil.html
EARNINGS: 7/31/2007 after the close.
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice strong volume again Monday as MIL tested support at 78 and the bounced. Nice set up but also earnings are after the close Tuesday, and on this one we prefer to see how it is treated on the news To recap: MIL made a nice break higher two weeks back, moving out of a 21 week ascending base on strong volume. It rallied to 80 and then tested, holding at the breakout point last week and then starting back up. Just a matter of time given its strength in the weak market.
Volume: 704.8K Avg Volume: 503.123K
BUY POINT: $80.28 Volume=700K Target=$91.95 Stop=$77.88
POSITION: MIL JP - Oct. $80c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mil.html
Play Date: 07/28/2007
NVDA (Nvidia--$45.49; +1.24; optionable): Multimedia graphics chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
EARNINGS: 8/10/07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Broke higher Monday and just looking for some volume as it continues the break higher. To recap: NVDA broke out from a 24 week cup with handle base in mid-June and rallied nice up the 10 day EMA (44.74) through mid-July. It peaked and has made a nice, orderly test during this market selling, coming back to test the 18 day EMA (44.32). It held near that level on low volume, showing a nice doji on the candlestick chart Wednesday, and then a big rising star doji Friday as it tried to make the run but faded as the market rolled over late in the session. This is only NVDA's second test of the short term moving averages on this move (a strong stock can make 4 to 5 such moves before testing lower) and we are looking to pick up NVDA as it rebounds from here on stronger volume, continuing the move for a couple of more rotations.
Volume: 8.969M Avg Volume: 9.732M
BUY POINT: $45.08 Volume=12M Target=$53.95 Stop=$43.04
POSITION: UVA LI - Dec. $45c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvda.html
Play Date: 07/26/2007
RIMM (Research in Motion--$220.11; +4.44; optionable): Handheld wireless communication devices. Splits 3:1 on 8/21/07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: 9-27-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Bounced off the 18 day EMA Monday and looking for a bit more trade as it continues higher to move in. To recap: RIMM exploded higher in late June and continued higher for us into mid-July, making us a lot of money on that run. This week it has come back, dumping down toward the 18 day EMA, using the market selling to take a breather, holding above 220 on the lows. While the market struggled Thursday, RIMM tried to move higher on Apple's coattails but could not hold it. Showing a lot of pop still, and looking to move in as it makes the next break higher.
Volume: 5.995M Avg Volume: 7.379M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 220.45; Over the 10 day EMA: $222.55 Volume=10M Target=$249.50 Stop=$219.22
POSITION: RFY IF - Sept. $230c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rimm.html
Play Date: 07/25/2007
SAY (Satyam Computer Services--$26.91; +0.76; optionable): Information technology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/say.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-20-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice strong volume Monday as SAY started higher off the 50 day EMA test. Faded back to close just below the 10 day EMA, but if it continueshigher and makes the break we are looking to move in. To recap: Coming back for a nice test of the 10 day EMA and onto the 50 day EMA following the nice break higher in early July that took it out of its 10 week flat base. It is making its second test of that move, using the market selling to consolidate and set up the next run to a new high. Excellent action with strong money flow still leading the way even with this pullback.
Volume: 2.034M Avg Volume: 883.688K
BUY POINT: New: $27.05 (orig. $27.88) Volume=1.4M Target=$32.32 Stop=$26.65
POSITION: SAY JE - Oct. $25c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/say.html
Play Date: 07/28/2007
SNDK (Sandisk--$56.56; +1.73; optionable): Memory chips, memory cards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sndk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-19-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Strong volume returned Monday as SNDK moved off the 18 day EMA. Nice. Ready to move in as it continues. To recap: SNDK was one of the chip leaders off their lows, and though it is not near a new high, it is set up well to make us money. It is testing back to the 18 day EMA (54.23), forming a handle to a larger 10 month cup with handle pattern. Nice move to start July, and by the time its very good earnings came out all it could do was gap higher and then sell back as the market had started its July issues. It used the market selling to test back last week, finding support at the 18 day EMA. Excellent action in a very weak market and SNDK is in very good position to rebound and give us a nice run either on its own or with the assistance of the market overall.
Volume: 13.348M Avg Volume: 8.904M
BUY POINT: $56.32 Volume=12M Target=$65.45 Stop=$53.96
POSITION: SWF JK - Oct. $55c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sndk.html
End part 3 of 3
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