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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 2 of 3
Part 3 will be forwarded later today.
CONTINUING PLAYS
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LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.) Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon Market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor Market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AGU 07/17 DB hdl 41.54 -0.37 46.25 53.95 2M 2M 44.38
Current. Despite the market selling AGU held its ground above the 90 day MA and at the April highs, continuing its lateral consolidation of the past two weeks. Not a great surge or anything like that, but given the market selling, a pillar of strength as it tries to set up for the bounce off this support.
ALGN 07/30 Test BO 25.64 -0.92 27.77 33.38 753K 1.2M 2597.0
Buy Not Hit. Fell below the 18 day MA, but not without a fight as it stood up well against the market selling. Currently sits just above the early-May and mid-June highs(roughly 24 dollars) looking to make a bounce high once volume returns.
ARTC 08/01 Test BO 53.65 +0.78 51.89 59.75 1.2M 600K 50.11
Current. Selling? What selling? ARTC continued higher despite
the market's woes, though the last hour unfortunately
took it $1.50 off its intraday high. Quite a run and
quite a lot of strength.
BCSI 07/28 Test 50 50.30 -1.64 52.32 62.95 292K 600K 49.89
Buy Not Issued. Weathered the market selling well to post a modest loss on low volume. Critical point in the life of BCSI as it tests the new high(55.53) past the most recent top for BCSI(52.01). Looks set to rebound high above the 10 day MA given that selling volume was low Friday and that late may and early June set up some nice support at the current level.
CELG 07/28 Rev HS 59.46 -0.96 60.88 69.95 3.2M 5.5M 58.78
Buy Not Issued. Fell back to the 50 day MA on low volume along the July support. Wants to start the move higher but either doesn't have the individual strength or the support of the market to get it started.
CMTL 06/28 Rev HS 42.18 -2.05 47.45 54.75 339K 450K 47.89
Current. Broke below the 90 day MA, but on low volume and in
the afternoon with that massive throw out of all stocks.
Held some support at 42 and we expect a bounce from
here to test 45ish.
CPO 07/26 Test 50 44.11 -1.06 46.44 53.45 690K 1.1M 43.88
Buy Not Hit.
CSCO 07/24 FlyPlat 29.46 -0.67 30.18 36.25 51M 70M 29.40
Current. Sits above four key support points from early to mid 2006 as it fell with the market on average volume. Currently testing the 18 day MA, CSCO is in good shape to make a rebound here and continue the move.
CTRP 07/11 Test BO 42.90 +2.40 42.88 49.98 2M 425K 39.45
Current. Continued the Wednesday explosive rebound on even better volume to recover a majority of the prior week's losses. Doing great going against the flow of the market as it nears the July top, the next key test. After this run it may be a bit tired and pause at that level. Don't want to see the volume jump higher on any test back from that resistance.
CTRP 06/30 Cup hdl 42.90 +2.40 39.63 45.48 2M 450K 39.45
Current.
CTXS 08/01 Test BO 35.74 -1.13 37.65 44.95 1.6M 3.2M 35.55
Buy Not Hit.
CVX 07/17 Test BO 81.02 -2.87 91.85 103.95 16M 12M 90.11
Current. Gapped lower and slid through the 90 day MA after testing
it on the Thursday low. Holding above support at 80
where it needs to show us a recovery.
FTK 07/28 Test 50 31.25 -0.69 30.66 35.97 531K 604K 27.94
Current. Calmly faded back towards the 18 day MVA on above-average volume, but nothing compared to yesterday's great push. Ultimately got caught in market selling Friday and looks to return to the move higher after the selling volume ends.
GES 06/18 FlyPlat 46.37 -2.51 50.78 59.95 1.3M 2.2M 50.05
Current. Gave back the entire 7/27 recovery move as it slid through the 18 and 50 day EMA's on average volume. Now sits a little under 2 dollars from the 90 day MA at some support at 40. Needs to hold here or we are out.
GME 06/21 Test BO 39.55 -1.96 41.01 48.98 6.3M 2.5M 41.32
Current. Sold down hard early on TTWO delaying the release of
Grand Theft Auto IV, but managed to rebound and hold
the 50 day EMA on the close, showing a big doji. It
has now made a full test of that level & still looks solid.
GME 05/24 Test 18 39.55 -1.96 37.01 42.45 6.3M 3.5M 41.32
Current.
HAL 07/26 Test BO 34.27 -1.19 37.82 43.50 20M 20M 35.98
Buy Not Hit.
HAL 07/12 Test 50 34.27 -1.19 35.55 40.95 20M 22M 36.78
Current. Was holding up well until the last hour selling that
pushed it down toward its June and July lows. Volume
was up but still lower than prior sessions. Looked
a bit overdone so looking for a bounce early this week.
HPQ 07/11 Test 50 47.41 -0.82 46.35 53.35 17M 20M 47.64
Current. Wild session as HQP ended on the 10 day MA on above-average volume to sit on early July support. Before that it was down to the 50 day EMA and then up to the July high. Yes, Suzy, there is volatility. Nonetheless, setting up to rebound off the 10 or 18 day MA's.
ILMN 07/17 Cup hdl 44.53 -1.81 42.92 50.95 1.6M 1.6M 44.39
Current. Faded Friday on rising, above average volume after a good week of a lateral consolidation above the 10 day EMA. Looking for a hold at 41 & the 18 day EMA to send it back up.
LAVA 08/02 Cup hdl 14.54 -0.42 15.55 18.78 882K 950K 14.46
Buy Not Hit. Eased back tot eh 18 day EMA to end the week, still setting up the handle and preparing for the breakout.
LAYN 07/28 Cup hdl 44.70 -0.44 45.38 51.95 228K 315K 42.34
Current. Tested back to the 10 day EMA Friday but holding up very well for the next move as it tests the break higher.
LRCX 08/01 Test BO 54.82 -2.41 59.12 67.98 2.8M 4.5M 56.38
Buy Not Hit. Sold hard to hold at the 50 day MA along May and June supports. Has three key support points here that are set to give it the bounce back to recover the Friday selling, but don't like this drop. If it can recover we will put it back on, but dropping for now
MA 06/21 Test BO 131.26 -11.36 166.68 185.00 7M 5M 167.11
Exited. May and June support couldn't hold the hard selling as MA fell through the 90 day MA with no problem Friday. With the massively weak financial sector we decided to clear out and see if, when, and where it holds.
MA 06/12 Test 18 131.26 -11.36 148.15 169.75 7M 4.5M 164.11
Exited.
MFE 06/27 Test 18 35.25 -1.80 35.78 40.95 1.3M 2M 35.54
Current. Slipped on the afternoon market selling to return to the 50 day EMA on low volume. Ready to rebound here as it sits atop some decent June and July support and it was not being sold hard Friday.
MR 08/02 DB hdl 31.63 +0.52 32.22 38.45 888K 750K 29.96
Buy Not Hit. Posted a decent gain off the quiet move Thursday, not quite hitting our buy point. Moves on above-average volume to renew the surge higher after flat-lining Thursday on a third day of consecutively lower volume. Really like how it is showing strength in a weak market.
NVDA 07/25 Test 18 42.54 -2.68 47.47 56.75 10M 12M 44.44
Current. Gapped higher and hung in there nicely until the afternoon
session when it gave up ground. Despite the close off
the high it remains in solid shape and will look at
more positions as it holds and rebounds again.
OIH 07/30 Test 50 166.75 -6.20 181.68 198.95 12M 12M 177.55
Buy Not Issued. Knifed lower through the 50 day EMA and closed below the 90 day SMA. May find some support and rebound, and we will be watching it for that, but dropping as this is no the play we put on the report as it could not hold the key 50 day.
PETS 08/02 Test BO 14.68 -0.44 15.48 18.75 515K 450K 14.47
Buy Not Hit. Tried to extend the move but dumped back to the 10 day EMA on low volume Friday. Needs to hold here and show the next bounce to give us the buy point
PFWD 07/26 Test BO 17.76 -0.04 17.65 21.65 335K 400K 16.78
Buy Not Issued. Buy Not Issued. Was on its way to hit the July high before the market selling said otherwise. Posted a slight loss on average volume to close the week out, but certainly looks ready to make the move for us.
PKI 08/01 Test BO 28.05 -0.49 28.42 32.89 1.1M 1.1M 27.08
Buy Not Issued. Another stock showing excellent strength in the overall market sloth. Tested the Wednesday high on above-average volume but faded in the afternoon as the market collapsed. Nears two key support levels from July where it looks to make the bounce and finish the test and give us the buy.
RESP 07/31 Test BO 47.41 -0.24 46.26 52.95 693K 400K 45.21
Current. Surged again up to 49.30 but in the last hour selling
RESP gave it back. Still a strong stock and a good
week for it.
SAY 07/25 Test BO 26.10 -0.88 27.88 32.32 738K 1.4M 26.65
Current. Faded back to the 50 day EMA on low volume after getting caught in the market selling. Ready to make a reversal here as the 50 day MA sits at a strong key support for SAY.
SJR 07/30 Test BO 23.03 -0.75 49.15 57.95 449K 221K 46.44
Buy Not Hit. Continued lower, unable to hold the 18 day EMA and may fade on down to the 50 day EMA. We will watch it and see if it can hold, but dropping for now.
SNDK 07/28 Test 18 53.43 +0.66 56.32 65.45 16M 12M 53.96
Buy Not Issued. Rebounded high against the market flow with great volume though gave up much of the day's gain in that last hour selling. Tested the 18 and sets up to push back up to the 10 day MA with fresh buying volume.
SPN 07/31 Asc Bse 39.05 -1.27 41.88 48.22 1.3M 1.5M 39.22
Buy Not Hit. Closed the week at key support for SPN above the 90 day MA, but this was not the move we wanted to see. Fell with the market to finish beneath the 50 day EMA on above-average volume. Still working somewhat laterally out of the Dbl handle made in early 07, but will have to hold here and show us the break higher soon.
SPWR 07/24 Test 18 67.30 -1.67 71.84 82.45 828K 2M 67.31
Current. Faded in the Friday selling below the 18 day EMA, but extremely light volume so there was no one really wanting to sell it. Set to rebound soon as the selling dies out.
SRCL 08/02 Test BO 47.70 -0.02 48.75 55.95 897K 1M 46.48
Buy Not Issued. Flat-lined out of the test of the July high, but looking tasty. Ready to make the move high out of lateral move Friday as volume still holds above-average.
STP 07/23 Test BO 38.16 -1.49 43.31 49.95 1.8M 3M 39.97
Current. Flopped to the 50 day MA on continued low, below average volume, with an assist from the Friday afternoon market selling. Setting up for a nice break higher off the 50 day as there is no heavy selling volume. Will look at more positions as it makes the rebound.
TESO 07/19 Flat 30.82 -2.74 34.55 40.45 701K 175K 32.15
Buy Not Issued. Gapped lower and fought to return to the 90 day SMA. Dropping for now until we see how this shakes out.
TPX 07/28 Test BO 29.66 -1.34 32.48 38.95 1.8M 2.1M 30.39
Buy Not Issued. Still testing, but closed below the 18 day EMA. That means it may try and fill that gap from mid-July before it resumes its move. No problem with that, just have to be patient as always and let it show us the move.
TRMB 05/31 Test 50 37.93 -0.46 31.10 35.99 1.3M 650K 34.92
Current. Great wee for TRMB, finishing it out with a doji but holding up well in the Friday market flop. Very strong.
UTHR 07/16 Cup hdl 68.62 -1.16 68.80 78.97 940K 1.2M 68.22
Exited. Fell to the 18 day MA on average volume out of the July lateral movement. Why did we exit? Because it tried the break higher Tuesday but was clubbed back down on volume. It then tried to continue consolidating but started to sell Friday on rising volume. The failed breakout and the higher volume as it continued lower set off some warning signs. We will see how it shakes out and if it sets up again we will look at it again.
VDSI 07/07 Asc Bse 28.76 +0.78 25.58 30.45 1.7M 670K 26.65
Current. Great week and a great close to the week despite the market sell off. Made the move past the July top on great volume. Letting this one run as long as it will.
VSEA 07/25 Test BO 48.40 -1.22 44.88 52.95 2.5M 3M 44.97
Current. Tested the first high for August as it made a modest pullback on average volume. Excellent strength. Want to see VSEA hold the new high and end the test off the late-April an mid-July support.
WFR 06/27 Test 50 58.46 -1.83 63.85 73.75 3.6M 8.2M 61.22
Current. Fell through the 50 and 90 day MA on low volume to meet key support from May through June. In good position to make the next move higher and recover week's losses as it continues its 5 month lateral base.
ZOLT 07/02 Test BO 45.59 -1.25 45.99 54.45 590K 1.2M 47.11
Current. Gapped lower, tried to rebound but could not hold it in the afternoon selling. Still below average volume so no heavy selling.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AEO 07/31 Put 23.50 -1.20 24.11 22.35 6M 3.5M 23.94
After the Thursday tap at the 10 day MA AEO gots its
wings clipped and fell through teh early August low.
DIA 07/31 Put 132.19 -2.59 131.94 129.00 34M 20M 132.55
Buy Not Issued. Looking for that move below 132 to give us the buy as DJ30 heads toward its 200 day SMA.
FNM 07/31 Put 56.63 -2.33 59.00 56.10 13M 5M 57.92
Target Hit. Took part of the 42.5% put option gain as FNM tapped
at the target after that afternoon sell off. Still
looks weak and looking to give us a bit more downside
early this week.
NITE 07/31 Put 13.29 -0.74 13.96 12.45 3M 1.7M 13.62
Current. Fell out of the quiet move Thursday to hit 13.29 on high selling volume. Looks to continue the move lower as the high volume gives a good start to the new pull back.
End part 2 of 3
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