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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CPHD; GME; HPQ; NVDA; RIMM; SPWR; STP; VIP; VSEA
Upside:
Play Date: 08/08/2007
GTIV (Gentiva Health Services--$21.10; +0.43; optionable): Home health care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gtiv.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-1-07
STATUS: Ascending base. GTIV broke higher to start August on its solid earnings, then spent the last market sell off to test the move, holding near support at the 18 day EMA. This has formed something of a handle or lateral shakeout to its 22 week base formed using the 90 day SMA (roughly) to make higher and higher lows. Nice test and then volume surged Wednesday as GTIV broke higher again. Looking to move in as GTIV continues this move higher. Not a lot of open interest in the options so looking at this one as more of a stock trade.
Volume: 543.32K Avg Volume: 201.086K
BUY POINT: $21.39 Volume=302K Target=$25.75 Stop=$20.22
POSITION: FUP KD - Nov. $20c (64 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gtiv.html
Play Date: 08/08/2007
MTL (Mechel Steel Group--$41.42; +1.20; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtl.html
EARNINGS: Announce 7-11-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Nice run from the June breakout of a 10 week flat base. Surged up to 48 on the move, then in the market selling MTL came back to test support at the 50 day EMA (39.94). It has made a short, two week double bottom at that support level and started a modest bounce Wednesday on rising, average trade, rising up to the 18 day EMA (41.53) on the close. Looking for a bit more volume as it moves through that level to give us the buy as MTL rebounds and stretches for a new all-time high.
Volume: 470.3K Avg Volume: 463.769K
BUY POINT: $42.32 Volume=695K Target=$50.75 Stop=$39.77
POSITION: MTL JH - Oct. $40c (54 delta, 239 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mtl.html
Play Date: 08/08/2007
SLB (Schlumberger--$93.72; +4.96; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-20-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume jumped for the third session as SLB did the same off the 50 day EMA (87.60). This deeper test is normal in such a strong run from May to late July that made us a lot of money. After that run up the 18 day EMA it made this test that resets the run higher. Big move Wednesday, but as we have seen before, that is not the end of what SLB can do. Looking to move in as it continues this bounce off the 50 day.
Volume: 15.915M Avg Volume: 10.359M
BUY POINT: $94.12 Volume=12M Target=$109.00 Stop=$91.22
POSITION: SLB KS - Nov. $95c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/slb.html
Downside: Both from the same sector. Will see which one cracks first, but if they both go, no problem with that.
Play Date: 08/08/2007
AMTD (Ameritrade--$16.71; +0.40; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amtd.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-07
STATUS: Put. AMTD is one of the financials that rebounded the past three sessions from its hard sell off that took it through the 200 day SMA (17.39). It has bounced on stronger volume but stalled out near the 10 day EMA (16.92) on the Wednesday high but then gave up most of the gain. Looking for AMTD to roll over and continue the move lower. May not do it tomorrow; just have to be patient and let it peak out and then fade. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 10.236M Avg Volume: 7.056M
BUY POINT: $16.59 Volume=8M Target=$15.00 Stop=$16.97
POSITION: TQ UW - Sept. $17.50p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/amtd.html
Play Date: 08/08/2007
ETFC (E Trade Financial--$17.16; +0.55; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/etfc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-25-07
STATUS: Put. Another financial that has rebounded from a butt-kicking, coming up to the 10 day EMA (17.81) on the Wednesday intraday high and then fading back for a modest gain. Volume was below average but lower than all sessions this month thus far. A rebound from the selling that stalled at near support. If it cannot move higher from here and starts back down we are ready to move in. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 12.731M Avg Volume: 8.148M
BUY POINT: $17.03 Volume=10M Target=$15.00 Stop=$17.85
POSITION: EUS UW - Sept. $17.50p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/etfc.html
Ready to move:
Downside:
AEO
GRA
SPY
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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