|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CSCO; GME; MON; HPQ; NVDA; SPWR; STP; VSEA; WOOF
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/08/2007
MTL (Mechel Steel Group--$41.42; +1.20; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtl.html
EARNINGS: Announce 7-11-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Nice run from the June breakout of a 10 week flat base. Surged up to 48 on the move, then in the market selling MTL came back to test support at the 50 day EMA (39.94). It has made a short, two week double bottom at that support level and started a modest bounce Wednesday on rising, average trade, rising up to the 18 day EMA (41.53) on the close. Looking for a bit more volume as it moves through that level to give us the buy as MTL rebounds and stretches for a new all-time high.
Volume: 470.3K Avg Volume: 463.769K
BUY POINT: $42.32 Volume=695K Target=$50.75 Stop=$39.77
POSITION: MTL JH - Oct. $40c (54 delta, 239 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mtl.html
Play Date: 08/08/2007
SLB (Schlumberger--$93.72; +4.96; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-20-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume jumped for the third session as SLB did the same off the 50 day EMA (87.60). This deeper test is normal in such a strong run from May to late July that made us a lot of money. After that run up the 18 day EMA it made this test that resets the run higher. Big move Wednesday, but as we have seen before, that is not the end of what SLB can do. Looking to move in as it continues this bounce off the 50 day.
Volume: 15.915M Avg Volume: 10.359M
BUY POINT: $94.12 Volume=12M Target=$109.00 Stop=$91.22
POSITION: SLB KS - Nov. $95c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slb.html
Play Date: 08/08/2007
SOHU (Sohu.com--$35.21; +1.42; optionable): Chinese internet provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sohu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-1-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders breakout. SOHU made a new breakout Wednesday on strong volume from a short 6 week base that consolidated the late June breakout from a 14 month double bottom base. This is part of a much larger 4 year base that has reset the clock for SOHU as far as its upside move. In other words, SOHU has a great foundation beneath it and we are looking to move in as it continues the breakout move as there is plenty of upside room.
Volume: 2.204M Avg Volume: 979.045K
BUY POINT: $35.52 Volume=1M Target=$41.45 Stop=$33.03
POSITION: UZK LG - Dec. $35c (59, delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sohu.html
Downside: Both from the same sector. Will see which one cracks first, but if they both go, no problem with that.
Play Date: 08/08/2007
AMTD (Ameritrade--$16.71; +0.40; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amtd.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-07
STATUS: Put. AMTD is one of the financials that rebounded the past three sessions from its hard sell off that took it through the 200 day SMA (17.39). It has bounced on stronger volume but stalled out near the 10 day EMA (16.92) on the Wednesday high but then gave up most of the gain. Looking for AMTD to roll over and continue the move lower. May not do it tomorrow; just have to be patient and let it peak out and then fade. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 10.236M Avg Volume: 7.056M
BUY POINT: $16.59 Volume=8M Target=$15.00 Stop=$16.97
POSITION: TQ UW - Sept. $17.50p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amtd.html
Play Date: 08/08/2007
ETFC (E Trade Financial--$17.16; +0.55; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/etfc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-25-07
STATUS: Put. Another financial that has rebounded from a butt-kicking, coming up to the 10 day EMA (17.81) on the Wednesday intraday high and then fading back for a modest gain. Volume was below average but lower than all sessions this month thus far. A rebound from the selling that stalled at near support. If it cannot move higher from here and starts back down we are ready to move in. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 12.731M Avg Volume: 8.148M
BUY POINT: $17.03 Volume=10M Target=$15.00 Stop=$17.85
POSITION: EUS UW - Sept. $17.50p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/etfc.html
Play Date: 08/08/2007
MS (Morgan Stanley--$65.39; +1.06; optionable): National brokerage house
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ms.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-20-07
STATUS: Put. And yet another brokerage that has rebounded up to its 18 day EMA, showing a big doji at that level Wednesday on strong volume. Looking for MS to fail at this point and then test back down to the prior lows it just bounced from. A move to the target lands a 38%ish gain.
Volume: 20.805M Avg Volume: 9.239M
BUY POINT: $64.35 Volume=10M Target=$60.75 Stop=$65.95
POSITION: MS UM - Sept. $65p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ms.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/06/2007
ABB (ABB Ltd.--$24.08; +0.68; optionable): Automation technologies for utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abb.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Gapped higher Wednesday on lower but still above average volume. Tested lower intraday toward the 10 and 18 day EMA and rebounded. If it can continue from here, with all the recent volume, we will be ready to move in. To recap: Nice breakout in late April and then a run up the 18 day EMA (23.67); nice breakout and run. Now it is making a deeper test, coming back to the 50 day EMA (22.77) twice the past two weeks, making another test Monday on the intraday low and then rebounding nicely on rising volume to post a gain. ABB never got into trouble during the recent selling, using it to test its run and set up the next move. Looking for a continued strong bounce to give us the buy point on this top rated stock with great earnings growth rates.
Volume: 3.076M Avg Volume: 2.692M
BUY POINT: $24.32 Volume=3.8M Target=$28.45 Stop=$22.68
POSITION: ABB LX - Dec. $22.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/abb.html
Play Date: 08/04/2007
CNH (CNH Global--$52.84; +0.68; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnh.html
EARNINGS: 10-22-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Big reach lower, tapping at the 90 day SMA on the low and then a furious recovery to hold the 10 day EMA and the recent pattern. Maybe that was the final shakeout that will send the stock back up. To recap: CNH is in a continuing uptrend. It broke out from a 9 week flat base in late April and rallied up the 18 day EMA, making a series of bounces up that near support, typical of a strong stock making a breakout run. After that nice run it needed a test, and it used the recent market selling to come back to the 50 day EMA (51.52) for a bit of R&R. Strong stocks will do that after a breakout. Still strong as this pullback to support in a weak market shows. Just waiting for it to show us a bounce higher on strong volume to give us the buy point.
Volume: 997.5K Avg Volume: 394.29K
BUY POINT: $54.21 Volume=550K Target=$62.45 Stop=$51.15
POSITION: CNH LJ - Dec. $50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cnh.html
Play Date: 08/01/2007
CTXS (Citrix Systems--$37.65; +0.99; optionable): Internet info access software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctxs.html
EARNINGS: 7-18-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Broke higher Wednesday on rising though still below average volume. That kept us from moving in, but sure do like the pattern and the price move. Want to see some more volume as it continues the move higher. To recap: CTXS is working on a nice 15 month cup base, and after gapping higher on earnings it has used the market selling to test, forming a handle to that base. It has filled the gap on earnings, showing a doji Wednesday at the 18 day EMA. Like how it has filled the gap and rebounded to hold near support as most stocks in the market broke apart. Excellent money flow and love this set up for a break higher to jump all over.
Volume: 2.455M Avg Volume: 2.931M
BUY POINT: $37.65 Volume=3.2M Target=$44.95 Stop=$35.55
POSITION: XSQ LG - Dec. $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctxs.html
Play Date: 08/04/2007
FCX (Freeport McMoran--$90.71; +2.93; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcx.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Okay, FCX bounced up but the volume was so-so and we did not enter. Really debated it, but wanted to see it clear the 18 day EMA (90.22) and hold the move given the relatively light trade. It managed to do that, so if FCX can continue higher we will look to move into positions despite the move higher off the 50 day EMA already.
Volume: 9.727M Avg Volume: 9.944M
BUY POINT: New: $91.05 (orig. $86.88) Volume=12M Target=$104.95 Stop=$85.21
POSITION: FCX KR - Nov. $90c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fcx.html
Downside
Play Date: 08/04/2007
GRA (W.R. Grace & Co.--$20.91; +0.67; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gra.html
EARNINGS: 5-9-07
STATUS: Put. Bounced up to tap the 18 day EMA on the Wednesday high (21.50) then faded back for a modest gain. Looking for GRA to continue back down from this test. To recap: Chemicals were hot, but now they are in trouble as many stocks in the sector roll over. GRA formed a 20 week top, but the outcome was in doubt until it broke lower in late June and then collapsed in late July with a big run lower that crashed the 200 day SMA. It rebounded last week, but could only make it to the 10 day EMA on the Thursday intraday high before fading and sliding back Friday. After this test of the collapse GRA looks ready to head back down. We are looking to buy into that turn lower with some puts and ride it to the target. That move lands us a 47%ish gain.
Volume: 1.142M Avg Volume: 844.17K
BUY POINT: New: $20.58 (orig. $19.78) Volume=1.2M Target=$17.72 Stop=$20.55
POSITION: GRA UD - Sept. $20p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gra.html
Play Date: 08/06/2007
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$149.83; +2.06; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
STATUS: Put. Has bounced back up to the 50 day EMA on lower though still above average volume after that gutting the prior two weeks. This is the natural resistance for the index as it bounces, and we are watching for a rollover from here that takes it back down to test the prior sell off. The 200 day SMA is at 145.30, and that may try to provide some support so we will use that as our initial target. Plenty of downside room there to give us a nice gain.
Volume: 271.402M Avg Volume: 194.259M
BUY POINT: $148.88 Volume=295M Target=Initial 145; then $143.00 if it breaks the 200 day SMA Stop=$149.33
POSITION: SFB UR - Sept. $148p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/spy.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
