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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/11/2007
AMZN (Amazon.com--$74.78; +0.67; optionable): Internet sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amzn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. AMZN is enjoying a resurgence though nothing like the $500 price back in the late 1990's. No, this is steady, sustained growth as the earnings demonstrated. AMZN gapped higher on the news, clearing a 10 week ascending base ith a big gap higher on the earnings news. It has come back in the selling to test and fill the gap, holding at the 50 day EMA (72.33) as it has done on its other tests. Thus we are looking for a bounce higher from here to give us a buy point as AMZN renews its break higher.
Volume: 9.068M Avg Volume: 12.397M
BUY POINT: $77.18 Volume=15M Target=$88.75 Stop=$72.11
POSITION: ZQN JO - Oct. $75c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amzn.html
Play Date: 08/11/2007
ARTC (Arthrocare--$52.41; -2.45; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/artc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. ARTC shot upside in late July as it announced earnings and broke out from an 11 month cup with handle base. Excellent action n the breakout with strong volume and good price moves. Volume remained strong as it rallied, and now ARTC is making a nice test of the breakout, coming back Friday to tap the 18 day EMA on the Friday low and bouncing, showing a nice doji on the session. After a pullback that often indicates a move higher is to come again. Solid market leader giving us a nice entry point.
Volume: 955.042K Avg Volume: 453.577K
BUY POINT: $53.11 Volume=800K Target=$60.95 Stop=$51.08
POSITION: ARU LJ - Dec. $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/artc.html
Play Date: 08/11/2007
BRCM (Broadcom--$32.31; -0.06; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-19-07
STATUS: Test breakout. BRCM is working the way out of a deep base. After being a market leader through early 2006 it fell into a long, 18 month base. Over the past 9 months it has established a higher range, forming a base within a base. This past week it gapped higher clearing a 3 week handle to a shorter 6 month base within the base. Then in the Thursday and Friday selling it just eased back modestly. Very nice action setting up the next break higher in this move.
Volume: 5.097M Avg Volume: 15.127M
BUY POINT: $36.21 Volume=18M Target=$44.95 Stop=$34.88
POSITION: RCQ KG - Nov. $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brcm.html
Play Date: 08/11/2007
OII (Oceaneering Intl.--$64.80; -0.75; optionable): Offshore drilling services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oii.html
EARNINGS: 8/1/07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. OII surged higher when a lot of energy stocks struggled, breaking higher from a 2 week lateral consolidation to start August. Surged to 70 intraday Wednesday and then in the subsequent market selling it tested its break higher, using the market weakness to take a breather. Like the strength, like the nice pullback to the 10 day EMA and then the jump off that level Friday. Looking to move in and catch OII as it continues its run higher.
Volume: 1.959M Avg Volume: 930.578K
BUY POINT: $65.65 Volume=15M Target=$78.94 Stop=$62.22
POSITION: OII AM - Jan. $65c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oii.html
Play Date: 08/11/2007
SSYS (Stratasys--$49.44; -2.59; optionable): PC peripherals. Splits 2:1 on 8-30-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssys.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-1-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Good week for SSYS as it broke higher from an 8 week base and continued higher Thursday when much of the market was weak. Friday it finally gave in to some selling, tapping the 10 day EMA on the intraday low and then bouncing back to recoup some lost ground. Nice doji on the pullback, and with the good earnings and the split we are looking for SSYS to rebound and continue its breakout move. Great strength in a weak market and in a good sector for this market as well.
Volume: 261.937K Avg Volume: 179.278K
BUY POINT: $50.32 Volume=280K Target=$58.75 Stop=$48.11
POSITION: QQG LJ - Dec. $50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ssys.html
Play Date: 08/11/2007
WNR (Western Refining--$55.67; +2.97; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wnr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8/9/07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. WNR made us some strong green in its early 2007 runs, and it needed a break after such strong moves. It peaked at 60 in July and then faded back to test, holding in a range bracketing the 50 day EMA (53.53). It has used this support to move laterally, forming a short but nice 5 week double bottom with handle base. Some ver nice upside moves on volume last week show us there are buyers in the stock Looking for the break higher on more good trade to show us the buyers are back and ready to drive WNR higher.
Volume: 1.905M Avg Volume: 1.283M
BUY POINT: $56.96 Volume=1.9M Target=$65.45 Stop=$53.38
POSITION: WNR LK - Dec. $55c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wnr.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/09/2007
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$68.24; -0.59; optionable): Engineering services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
EARNINGS: 11-6-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After that Thursday surge JEC tested a bit Friday, tapping at the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounding. Like that test and rebound, showing buyers ready to step in. We will be ready as well as JEC continues higher. To recap: JEC is surged higher on strong volume Thursday, clearing the July high as it powers off the 50 day EMA (60.49). It needed this test of the 50 day to reset the clock after the March breakout and run higher up the short term moving averages. A strong stock will continue its run after such a test, and JEC is running higher on strong volume, showing us the move is still on. Ready to start at least part of the position on a continued run higher and then adding on the next test.
Volume: 1.882M Avg Volume: 1.087M
BUY POINT: $69.11 Volume=1.1M Target=$79.95 Stop=$65.88
POSITION: JEC JM - Oct. $65c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jec.html
Play Date: 08/08/2007
SLB (Schlumberger--$92.10; -0.10; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-20-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Gapped lower and tested the 50 day EMA Friday, but then rebounded nicely. SLB has held up very well and looking for it to make us some more great money as it did on its last run. To recap: Volume jumped for the third session Wednesday as SLB did the same off the 50 day EMA (87.60). This deeper test is normal in such a strong run from May to late July that made us a lot of money. After that run up the 18 day EMA it made this test that resets the run higher. Big move Wednesday, but as we have seen before, that is not the end of what SLB can do. Looking to move in as it continues this bounce off the 50 day.
Volume: 10.509M Avg Volume: 10.46M
BUY POINT: $94.12 Volume=12M Target=$109.00 Stop=$91.22
POSITION: SLB KS - Nov. $95c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slb.html
Downside
Play Date: 08/09/2007
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30)--$131.94; -0.85; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Put. Gapped down Friday, closing with doji. We decided to hold off entering given the weekend and the potential for a new Fed bid. If it cannot, we will look at the downside. To recap: Taking another shot at DIA after its test of the June highs and then the rollover Thursday on strong volume. It fell below the 90 day SMA though it is still above the recent lows. Nonetheless this rollover has us looking for a downside push toward the 200 day MA. A long way and a lot of selling, but we still think DIA has a lot of catch-up to play on this selling. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 37.277M Avg Volume: 17.199M
BUY POINT: $132.28 Volume=26M Target=$128.50 Stop=$133.57
POSITION: DAW UC - Sept. $133p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dia.html
Play Date: 08/09/2007
SIRF (Sirf Tech Holdings--$20.01; +0.50; optionable): GPS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sirf.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-07
STATUS: Put. Answered the hard selling through Tuesday with a low volume bounce up to tap the 18 day EMA (20.76) Friday and then fade back. Looks like a weak bounce that is going to roll over into more selling, giving us a perfect entry point. To recap: Earnings did not help SIRF surf higher, instead gapping an already weak stock lower. Hard sell off took SIRF below its last major low back in August 2006 at 18. It rebounded this week in the market selling but on lower and lower volume. Thursday SIRF tapped at the 10 day EMA on the high (20) and then eased back. Looking for it to fall over here and do some more selling. a move to the target lands a 54%ish gain.
Volume: 2.38M Avg Volume: 2.259M
BUY POINT: $19.18 Volume=3M Target=$17.11 Stop=$19.72
POSITION: QIR UD - Sept. $20p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sirf.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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