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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/11/2007
MDR (McDermott Intl.--$82.78; +0.95; optionable): Heavy construction. Splits 2:1 on 9-11-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-7-07
STATUS: Taking another look at MDR after it gapped lower Thursday and then again Friday, but it held and closed above the recent lows in its 3 week lateral move. It is holding at the 50 day EMA (81.64) support, and we will wait for it to gel at that level and then break higher.
Volume: 2.14M Avg Volume: 1.95M
BUY POINT: $84.55 Volume=2M Target=$99.95 Stop=$79.89
POSITION: MDR KR - Nov. $90c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mdr.html
Play Date: 08/11/2007
SSYS (Stratasys--$49.44; -2.59; optionable): PC peripherals. Splits 2:1 on 8-30-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssys.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-1-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Good week for SSYS as it broke higher from an 8 week base and continued higher Thursday when much of the market was weak. Friday it finally gave in to some selling, tapping the 10 day EMA on the intraday low and then bouncing back to recoup some lost ground. Nice doji on the pullback, and with the good earnings and the split we are looking for SSYS to rebound and continue its breakout move. Great strength in a weak market and in a good sector for this market as well.
Volume: 261.937K Avg Volume: 179.278K
BUY POINT: $50.32 Volume=280K Target=$58.75 Stop=$48.11
POSITION: QQG LJ - Dec. $50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssys.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 08/11/2007
BRCM (Broadcom--$32.31; -0.06; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-19-07
STATUS: Test breakout. BRCM is working the way out of a deep base. After being a market leader through early 2006 it fell into a long, 18 month base. Over the past 9 months it has established a higher range, forming a base within a base. This past week it gapped higher clearing a 3 week handle to a shorter 6 month base within the base. Then in the Thursday and Friday selling it just eased back modestly. Very nice action setting up the next break higher in this move.
Volume: 5.097M Avg Volume: 15.127M
BUY POINT: $36.21 Volume=18M Target=$44.95 Stop=$34.88
POSITION: RCQ KG - Nov. $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/brcm.html
Play Date: 08/11/2007
SUN (Sunoco--$67.45; +3.87; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sun.html
EARNINGS: 8/1/07
STATUS: Double bottom. SUN sold off with much of the energy sector in late July, but with earnings and the start of August SUN has held the line and has formed a short two week double bottom. These short patterns in strong stocks often yield strong rebounds back toward the prior highs, and with the energy sector recovering it is in excellent position to make the rebound.
Volume: 4.814M Avg Volume: 3.311M
BUY POINT: $67.77 Volume=5M Target=$81.45 Stop=$64.89
POSITION: SUN KM - Nov. $65c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sun.html
Leader Play:
Play Date: 08/11/2007
WNR (Western Refining--$55.67; +2.97; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wnr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8/9/07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. WNR made us some strong green in its early 2007 runs, and it needed a break after such strong moves. It peaked at 60 in July and then faded back to test, holding in a range bracketing the 50 day EMA (53.53). It has used this support to move laterally, forming a short but nice 5 week double bottom with handle base. Some ver nice upside moves on volume last week show us there are buyers in the stock Looking for the break higher on more good trade to show us the buyers are back and ready to drive WNR higher.
Volume: 1.905M Avg Volume: 1.283M
BUY POINT: $56.96 Volume=1.9M Target=$65.45 Stop=$53.38
POSITION: WNR LK - Dec. $55c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wnr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Fell further through the 50 day EMA.
APD
BDX: Pinpointing a date. Great recovery.
BG: Researching a new date.
BIDU: Researching the next possible date.
CELG: Still at the 50 day EMA
CLB: No split announcement but a great move to resume the uptrend.
DE: Forecast late August. Trying to hold the 90 day SMA
FCN: No split announced but a good week for FCN despite the Friday selling.
HRS: Forecast late August. Not being denied with its strong rebound on Friday
MBT: Holding at the 50 day EMA with a doji.
NOV: Bouncing off the 50 day EMA with something of a double bottom thing going here.
NVDA: Researching date. Announced the split with some good earnings Thursday.
PCU: Looking at late October
VIP: Researching date.
WOOF: Testing the blast higher.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/11/2007
COST (Costco--$63.25; +0.01; optionable): Wholesale clubs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cost.html
EARNINGS: 10/11/07
STATUS: Test breakout. May be a bit early on COST, but it is set up quite nicely. It broke higher last week and then spent the end of the week testing, tapping the 10 day EMA on the Friday low and holding the July high on the low and then rebounding. We are looking for COST to continue higher from here and we look to move in as it does. Discount/wholesale is getting more action as consumers are concerned.
Volume: 5.194M Avg Volume: 4.343M
BUY POINT: $63.77 Volume=5.5M Target=$73.45 Stop=$62.12
POSITION: PRQ AM - Jan. $65c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cost.html
Play Date: 08/11/2007
NOV (National Oilwell--$116.34; +5.40; optionable): Oil services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nov.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-25-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. As noted NOV is forming something of a double bottom at the 50 day EMA the past three weeks as it tests a rather torrid run higher, taking a bit of R&R before moving higher once more. Excellent second bounce off the 50 day EMA Friday, and we are looking to parlay that into a good entry point.
Volume: 3.732M Avg Volume: 3.371M
BUY POINT: $117.55 Volume=4.8M Target=$134.95 Stop=$113.95
POSITION: NOV KC - Nov. $115c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nov.html
Play Date: 08/11/2007
OII (Oceaneering Intl.--$64.80; -0.75; optionable): Offshore drilling services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oii.html
EARNINGS: 8/1/07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. OII surged higher when a lot of energy stocks struggled, breaking higher from a 2 week lateral consolidation to start August. Surged to 70 intraday Wednesday and then in the subsequent market selling it tested its break higher, using the market weakness to take a breather. Like the strength, like the nice pullback to the 10 day EMA and then the jump off that level Friday. Looking to move in and catch OII as it continues its run higher.
Volume: 1.959M Avg Volume: 930.578K
BUY POINT: $65.65 Volume=15M Target=$78.94 Stop=$62.22
POSITION: OII AM - Jan. $65c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cS/oii.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/09/2007
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$68.24; -0.59; optionable): Engineering services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
EARNINGS: 11-6-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After that Thursday surge JEC tested a bit Friday, tapping at the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounding. Like that test and rebound, showing buyers ready to step in. We will be ready as well as JEC continues higher. To recap: JEC is surged higher on strong volume Thursday, clearing the July high as it powers off the 50 day EMA (60.49). It needed this test of the 50 day to reset the clock after the March breakout and run higher up the short term moving averages. A strong stock will continue its run after such a test, and JEC is running higher on strong volume, showing us the move is still on. Ready to start at least part of the position on a continued run higher and then adding on the next test.
Volume: 1.882M Avg Volume: 1.087M
BUY POINT: $69.11 Volume=1.1M Target=$79.95 Stop=$65.88
POSITION: JEC JM - Oct. $65c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jec.html
Play Date: 08/08/2007
SLB (Schlumberger--$92.10; -0.10; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-20-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Gapped lower and tested the 50 day EMA Friday, but then rebounded nicely. SLB has held up very well and looking for it to make us some more great money as it did on its last run. To recap: Volume jumped for the third session Wednesday as SLB did the same off the 50 day EMA (87.60). This deeper test is normal in such a strong run from May to late July that made us a lot of money. After that run up the 18 day EMA it made this test that resets the run higher. Big move Wednesday, but as we have seen before, that is not the end of what SLB can do. Looking to move in as it continues this bounce off the 50 day.
Volume: 10.509M Avg Volume: 10.46M
BUY POINT: $94.12 Volume=12M Target=$109.00 Stop=$91.22
POSITION: SLB KS - Nov. $95c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slb.html
CONTINUING DOWNSIDE PLAYS
Downside:
Play Date: 08/09/2007
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30)--$131.94; -0.85; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Put. Gapped down Friday, closing with doji. We decided to hold off entering given the weekend and the potential for a new Fed bid. If it cannot, we will look at the downside. To recap: Taking another shot at DIA after its test of the June highs and then the rollover Thursday on strong volume. It fell below the 90 day SMA though it is still above the recent lows. Nonetheless this rollover has us looking for a downside push toward the 200 day MA. A long way and a lot of selling, but we still think DIA has a lot of catch-up to play on this selling. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 37.277M Avg Volume: 17.199M
BUY POINT: $132.28 Volume=26M Target=$128.50 Stop=$133.57
POSITION: DAW UC - Sept. $133p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dia.html
Play Date: 08/09/2007
SIRF (Sirf Tech Holdings--$20.01; +0.50; optionable): GPS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sirf.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-07
STATUS: Put. Answered the hard selling through Tuesday with a low volume bounce up to tap the 18 day EMA (20.76) Friday and then fade back. Looks like a weak bounce that is going to roll over into more selling, giving us a perfect entry point. To recap: Earnings did not help SIRF surf higher, instead gapping an already weak stock lower. Hard sell off took SIRF below its last major low back in August 2006 at 18. It rebounded this week in the market selling but on lower and lower volume. Thursday SIRF tapped at the 10 day EMA on the high (20) and then eased back. Looking for it to fall over here and do some more selling. a move to the target lands a 54%ish gain.
Volume: 2.38M Avg Volume: 2.259M
BUY POINT: $19.18 Volume=3M Target=$17.11 Stop=$19.72
POSITION: QIR UD - Sept. $20p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sirf.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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