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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/13/2007
FNDT (Fundtech Ltd.--$15.40; +0.42; no options): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fndt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-8-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Big volume Monday as FNDT surged past the July high at 15.20, clearing the 'hump' in its 14 week double bottom base. Strong money flow is surging higher as FNDT pushes to a new 7 year high. Lighter trade on this one but very strong fundamentally and technically.
Volume: 156.361K Avg Volume: 50K
BUY POINT: $15.55 Volume=100K Target=$18.75 Stop=$14.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fndt.html
Play Date: 08/13/2007
ISRG (Intuitive Surgical--$201.20; +4.10; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isrg.html
EARNINGS: 7-19-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Blasted higher in July, gapping out of a long 18 month base. Massive breakout. It has spent the past 4 weeks working laterally as the 10 day EMA (202.84) caught up with it. It ended last week selling off, holding at the 18 day EMA (196.41). Like this shakeout and ready to move in as ISRG rallies higher on some rising trade. Powerful stock.
Volume: 725.889K Avg Volume: 971.788K
BUY POINT: $203.04 Volume=1.2M Target=$245.00 Stop=$196.11
POSITION: AXV JI - Oct. $200c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/isrg.html
Play Date: 08/13/2007
MOS (Mosaic Company--$40.04; +0.60; optionable): Agricultural chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mos.html
EARNINGS: 10-10-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. MOS has made a couple of bottoms at the 90 day SMA (35) over the past three weeks, reaching down to that level intraday Friday before reversing. It has set up a 5 week pattern using the 50 day EMA as well for some support. Solid money flow is leading higher and MOS is set up well to make the break higher which also takes it to a new high.
Volume: 1.934M Avg Volume: 2.644M
BUY POINT: $40.75 Volume=4M Target=$48.95 Stop=$38.32
POSITION: MOS LH - Dec. $40c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mos.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/13/2007
AEO (American Eagle Outfitters--$22.81; +0.18; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeo.html
EARNINGS: 8-21-07
STATUS: Put. AEO is ready to turn over once more after that rough drop last week that reversed off the lows on Friday. Monday AEO continued back up but after tapping the 10 day EMA (23.66) on the high it rolled over to close flat. Looking to move in as AEO continues lower. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 4.158M Avg Volume: 3.89M
BUY POINT: $22.60 Volume=4.2M Target=$21.00 Stop=$23.21
POSITION: AEO UX - Sept. $22.50p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aeo.html
Play Date: 08/13/2007
NTGR (Netgear--$29.84; -1.20; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntgr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-26-07
STATUS: Put. NTGR gapped lower in late July on its earnings result and has clawed back up this month, making it back to 32 where it gapped higher in late April. That makes this a . . . island reversal pattern. Massive gap lower in late July, low volume rebound to test the move, and then turning over Monday on rising, above average volume as it undercut the 200 day SMA (30.43) on the close. Ready to ride this one lower from here. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 1.462M Avg Volume: 1.103M
BUY POINT: $29.66 Volume=1.4M Target=$27.50 Stop=$30.45
POSITION: TUD UF - Sept. $30p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntgr.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/11/2007
AMZN (Amazon.com--$74.87; +0.09; optionable): Internet sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amzn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Retail sales did not break it higher but it did not torch it either. Still in the same pattern on low volume Monday, still setting up for the break higher. To recap: AMZN is enjoying a resurgence though nothing like the $500 price back in the late 1990's. No, this is steady, sustained growth as the earnings demonstrated. AMZN gapped higher on the news, clearing a 10 week ascending base with a big gap higher on the earnings news. It has come back in the selling to test and fill the gap, holding at the 50 day EMA (72.33) as it has done on its other tests. Thus we are looking for a bounce higher from here to give us a buy point as AMZN renews its break higher.
Volume: 6.016M Avg Volume: 12.559M
BUY POINT: $77.18 Volume=15M Target=$88.75 Stop=$72.11
POSITION: ZQN JO - Oct. $75c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amzn.html
Play Date: 08/11/2007
ARTC (Arthrocare--$51.58; -0.83; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/artc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still testing, coming back again to the 18 day EMA (51.20) on the Monday close. Very low volume fell below average, indicating no selling. Just waiting for the move back up to make our move into the stock. To recap: ARTC shot upside in late July as it announced earnings and broke out from an 11 month cup with handle base. Excellent action n the breakout with strong volume and good price moves. Volume remained strong as it rallied, and now ARTC is making a nice test of the breakout, coming back Friday to tap the 18 day EMA on the Friday low and bouncing, showing a nice doji on the session. After a pullback that often indicates a move higher is to come again. Solid market leader giving us a nice entry point.
Volume: 443.473K Avg Volume: 461.906K
BUY POINT: $53.11 Volume=800K Target=$60.95 Stop=$51.08
POSITION: ARU LJ - Dec. $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/artc.html
Play Date: 08/11/2007
OII (Oceaneering Intl.--$63.59; -1.21; optionable): Offshore drilling services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oii.html
EARNINGS: 8/1/07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Gapped higher but could not hold the move, turning over for a loss on lower, average trade. Still looks solid and still looking for OII to make the new break higher for us. To recap: OII surged higher when a lot of energy stocks struggled, breaking higher from a 2 week lateral consolidation to start August. Surged to 70 intraday Wednesday and then in the subsequent market selling it tested its break higher, using the market weakness to take a breather. Like the strength, like the nice pullback to the 10 day EMA and then the jump off that level Friday. Looking to move in and catch OII as it continues its run higher.
Volume: 995.2K Avg Volume: 870.216K
BUY POINT: $65.65 Volume=15M Target=$78.94 Stop=$62.22
POSITION: OII AM - Jan. $65c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oii.html
Play Date: 08/08/2007
SLB (Schlumberger--$90.68; -1.42; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-20-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Gapped higher as well on Monday, but no trade here either and OII closed lower. Lower but still well within the pattern after coming off the 50 day EMA test. Just waiting patiently for the break higher. To recap: Volume jumped for the third session Wednesday as SLB did the same off the 50 day EMA (87.60). This deeper test is normal in such a strong run from May to late July that made us a lot of money. After that run up the 18 day EMA it made this test that resets the run higher. Big move Wednesday, but as we have seen before, that is not the end of what SLB can do. Looking to move in as it continues this bounce off the 50 day.
Volume: 6.785M Avg Volume: 10.814M
BUY POINT: $94.12 Volume=12M Target=$109.00 Stop=$91.22
POSITION: SLB KS - Nov. $95c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slb.html
Play Date: 08/11/2007
SSYS (Stratasys--$48.74; -0.70; optionable): PC peripherals. Splits 2:1 on 8-30-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssys.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-1-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Rallied higher with many stocks but lower volume and it too could not hold the move, sliding back toward the 10 day EMA on the close. Looking for it to hold here and continue the break higher though it may take another session or two to get there. To recap: Good week for SSYS as it broke higher from an 8 week base and continued higher Thursday when much of the market was weak. Friday it finally gave in to some selling, tapping the 10 day EMA on the intraday low and then bouncing back to recoup some lost ground. Nice doji on the pullback, and with the good earnings and the split we are looking for SSYS to rebound and continue its breakout move. Great strength in a weak market and in a good sector for this market as well.
Volume: 189.779K Avg Volume: 179.537K
BUY POINT: $50.32 Volume=280K Target=$58.75 Stop=$48.11
POSITION: QQG LJ - Dec. $50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ssys.html
Downside
Play Date: 08/09/2007
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30)--$132.27; +0.33; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Put. Another gap, this time higher, and then a fade back down to support at 132. Still looking for DIA to break lower with some force. A move below 132 is safer, but if things get ugly again and it starts lower we will be ready to move in. To recap: Taking another shot at DIA after its test of the June highs and then the rollover Thursday on strong volume. It fell below the 90 day SMA though it is still above the recent lows. Nonetheless this rollover has us looking for a downside push toward the 200 day MA. A long way and a lot of selling, but we still think DIA has a lot of catch-up to play on this selling. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 16.676M Avg Volume: 17.618M
BUY POINT: $132.28 Volume=26M Target=$128.50 Stop=$133.57
POSITION: DAW UC - Sept. $133p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dia.html
Play Date: 08/09/2007
SIRF (Sirf Tech Holdings--$19.50; -0.51; optionable): GPS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sirf.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-07
STATUS: Put. Still struggling below the 18 day EMA (20.62), gapping higher Monday but then rolling over for a loss. No volume with trade moving below average for the first time in a week. Looking for SIRF to continue lower here and give us the entry point. To recap: Earnings did not help SIRF surf higher, instead gapping an already weak stock lower. Hard sell off took SIRF below its last major low back in August 2006 at 18. It rebounded this week in the market selling but on lower and lower volume. Thursday SIRF tapped at the 10 day EMA on the high (20) and then eased back. Looking for it to fall over here and do some more selling. a move to the target lands a 54%ish gain.
Volume: 1.513M Avg Volume: 2.266M
BUY POINT: $19.18 Volume=3M Target=$17.11 Stop=$19.72
POSITION: QIR UD - Sept. $20p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sirf.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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