|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 08/14/2007
ATW (Atwood Oceanics--$69.21; -0.11; optionable): Offshore oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atw.html
EARNINGS: Announce 8-7-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. ATW is working on a short 7 week pattern, trying to form the right shoulder right now to its pattern and set up the next breakout and run higher. Good breakout in March and run higher to 75 as ATW broke from an 11 month base. This is the first real test of that move, using the market selling to test back and form the pattern. The really big volume in the base was on the day it bottomed and then a strong upside day a couple of sessions later. This week it is testing back on much lower trade, and it is likely to come back a bit more toward 68, but the way it is moving we want to be ready if it takes off again from here. There is a storm brewing in the Gulf, but that does not seem to be putting much pressure on ATW as it sets up for the next break higher.
Volume: 799.6K Avg Volume: 681.237K
BUY POINT: $70.88 Volume=600K Target=$82.35 Stop=$67.54
POSITION: ATW LN - Dec. $70c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atw.html
Play Date: 08/14/2007
TEVA (Teva Pharmaceutical--$42.89; -0.25; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teva.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-1-07
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. TEVA is working on its 5 week handle to a large 12 month base. Very nice action as it bounces off the 50 day EMA (41.88) on the handle lows, trading on mostly lighter, below average volume as the rest of the market raged on high volume selling. Very nice shakeout as TEV bides its time and sets up the break higher. When it makes that move we move in.
Volume: 4.411M Avg Volume: 5.328M
BUY POINT: $44.21 Volume=8M Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.77
POSITION: TVQ LV - Dec. $42.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/teva.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/14/2007
BBBB (Blackboard--$40.07; -1.24; optionable): Multimedia graphics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbbb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-07
STATUS: Put. BBBB gapped lower to start August, diving lower on its earnings results. It managed to bottom at 38 and rebound, but it has started to come back, closing just below the 90 day SMA (40.14) on Tuesday. Volume was low, but money flow is diving lower ahead of price, and there is a big gap up from 35 in early May. We are looking for that gravity to pull BBBB lower. Our initial target is the August lows, but if this selling continues, a trip down to the 35 level is likely. A move to the initial target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 333.627K Avg Volume: 485.611K
BUY POINT: $39.94 Volume=525K Target=$37.90 Stop=$40.44
POSITION: BPU UP - Sept. $40p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bbbb.html
Play Date: 08/14/2007
FRPT (Force Protection--$16.11; -0.14; optionable): Trucks, vehicles for military
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frpt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-9-07
STATUS: Put. FRPT is in a continuing downtrend after a massive run that peaked in late May. It rolled over and has made a series of lower milestones. It gapped below the 200 day SMA near 18.50 the last week of July and then rebounded to test the move in early August on lower, below average volume. It ran into a buzz saw there and gapped back down. It has again moved higher, but the 10 day EMA (16.40) is stalling it out. Looking for it t fail here and head lower. A move to the initial target lands us a 38%ish gain, but we are looking more at a move down to 12.50 or so.
Volume: 984.621K Avg Volume: 0
BUY POINT: $15.88 Volume=3.2M Target=$13.77 Stop=$16.57
POSITION: QFZ UW - Sept. $17.50p (-55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/frpt.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: AAPL continues its troubles, fading back from the 50 day EMA after rebounding to test that level.
APD: Still in the pattern, holding near the 18 day EMA on lower trade.
BDX: Pinpointing a date. Too volatile and we decided to get out and let it settle down
BG: Researching a new date.
BIDU: Researching the next possible date.
CELG: Still at the 50 day EMA
CLB: Getting a bit tired and coming back to support at 105 on light trade. This is where it needs to hold.
COST: Forecast mid-October
DE: Forecast late August. Slipping through the 90 day SMA
FCN: No split announced but FCN continues its strong ways
HRS: Forecast late August.
JEC: Nice test of the break higher, holding at the 10 day EMA on low volume
MBT: Holding at the 50 day EMA still.
NOV: Nice low volume test of the 10 day EMA
NVDA: Bouncing back off the 50 day EMA on great volume after the dip on earnings and the split announcement
OII: Excellent test of the breakout.
PCU: Looking at late October
VIP: Researching date.
WOOF: All the way back to the 90 day SMA after that strong break higher
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/14/2007
DNR (Denbury Resources--$41.58; +0.43; optionable): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dnr.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-07
STATUS: Neat little 5 week double bottom with handle base has formed using the 50 day EMA (39.50) on the lows as support. It is making a higher low this week at the 18 day EMA, coming back on low volume, using the selling to form a handle. That is what typically precedes the breakout, and DNR has set up a great pattern to spring it to a new all-time high.
Volume: 927.3K Avg Volume: 1.256M
BUY POINT: $42.55 Volume=1.9M Target=$49.95 Stop=$40.95
POSITION: DNR LH - Dec. $40c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dnr.html
Play Date: 08/14/2007
FLIR (Flir Systems--$47.34; -1.50; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-25-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. After a nice run in June and July out of a 7 week double bottom base FLIR was sold in the late July dumping, coming back to test and hold the 90 day SMA. It bounced smartly off that level and then ran higher to start August and through last week. Strong upside trade. This week it has faded back to the 18 day EMA on low volume. We are looking for FLIR to hold this test and give another buy point as it starts back up.
Volume: 596.79K Avg Volume: 897.059K
BUY POINT: $49.78 Volume=1.2M Target=$57.95 Stop=$47.22
POSITION: FFQ AI - Jan. $45c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flir.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/09/2007
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$65.84; -2.19; optionable): Engineering services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
EARNINGS: 11-6-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Nice low volume test of the 10 day EMA (65.50) Tuesday, coming to rest at that key support level. Looking for the bounce off of this level to give us the entry point. To recap: JEC is surged higher on strong volume Thursday, clearing the July high as it powers off the 50 day EMA (60.49). It needed this test of the 50 day to reset the clock after the March breakout and run higher up the short term moving averages. A strong stock will continue its run after such a test, and JEC is running higher on strong volume, showing us the move is still on. Ready to start at least part of the position on a continued run higher and then adding on the next test.
Volume: 1.216M Avg Volume: 1.147M
BUY POINT: $66.48 Volume=1.1M Target=$77.95 Stop=$64.18
POSITION: JEC JM - Oct. $65c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jec.html
Play Date: 08/11/2007
OII (Oceaneering Intl.--$64.95; +1.36; optionable): Offshore drilling services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oii.html
EARNINGS: 8/1/07
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Volume jumped up nicely as OII moved off the 10 day EMA test (63.16), storm or no storm. Looks solid and we are looking to move in as OII makes the break higher. To recap: OII surged higher when a lot of energy stocks struggled, breaking higher from a 2 week lateral consolidation to start August. Surged to 70 intraday Wednesday and then in the subsequent market selling it tested its break higher, using the market weakness to take a breather. Like the strength, like the nice pullback to the 10 day EMA and then the jump off that level Friday. Looking to move in and catch OII as it continues its run higher.
Volume: 1.397M Avg Volume: 944.044K
BUY POINT: $65.65 Volume=15M Target=$78.94 Stop=$62.22
POSITION: OII AM - Jan. $65c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cS/oii.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 08/13/2007
ISRG (Intuitive Surgical--$196.80; -4.40; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isrg.html
EARNINGS: 7-19-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the nice test, holding at the 18 day EMA (196) on the Tuesday close on very low, below average volume. Perfect point for it to make the break higher. To recap: Blasted higher in July, gapping out of a long 18 month base. Massive breakout. It has spent the past 4 weeks working laterally as the 10 day EMA (201.74) caught up with it. It ended last week selling off, holding at the 18 day EMA (196.41). Like this shakeout and ready to move in as ISRG rallies higher on some rising trade. Powerful stock.
Volume: 494.932K Avg Volume: 971.788K
BUY POINT: New: 201.88 (orig. $203.04) Volume=1.2M Target=$245.00 Stop=$196.11
POSITION: AXV JI - Oct. $200c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/isrg.html
Play Date: 08/11/2007
WNR (Western Refining--$51.15; -1.35; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wnr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8/9/07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Sold off on rising, above average volume Tuesday, but WNR tapped the support at 50 on the low and rebounded modestly. Still setting up the break higher and still like the pattern WNR is showing. Needs to hold the line here. To recap: WNR made us some strong green in its early 2007 runs, and it needed a break after such strong moves. It peaked at 60 in July and then faded back to test, holding in a range bracketing the 50 day EMA (53.53). It has used this support to move laterally, forming a short but nice 5 week double bottom with handle base. Some very nice upside moves on volume last week show us there are buyers in the stock Looking for the break higher on more good trade to show us the buyers are back and ready to drive WNR higher.
Volume: 1.625M Avg Volume: 1.311M
BUY POINT: New: $55.75 (orig. $56.96) Volume=1.9M Target=$65.45 Stop=$53.38
POSITION: WNR LK - Dec. $55c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wnr.html
CONTINUING DOWNSIDE PLAYS
Downside:
Play Date: 08/04/2007
GRA (W.R. Grace & Co.--$20.19; -0.85; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gra.html
EARNINGS: 11-8-07
STATUS: Put. After rebounding to tap its 200 day SMA on Friday, GRA is backtracking, and it is close to the break lower. The pullback this wee was on very low, below average volume, however, so we need to see the break through the recent lows at 20 show a bit of trade. Money flow is still weak and heading lower, and we are looking for it to lead the stock down.
Volume: 518.4K Avg Volume: 891.503K
BUY POINT: $19.78 Volume=1.2M Target=$17.72 Stop=$20.55
POSITION: GRA UD - Sept. $20p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gra.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
