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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/15/2007
AMLN (Amylin Pharmaceuticals--$49.26; +1.12; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amln.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-23-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Broke out of a 13 month cup with handle base to start August continuing the move that started on the earnings report. Strong upside trade and now a nice lower volume test back, holding the July high and the 18 day EMA (47.91) on the low. It bounced Wednesday on rising, average trade in a weak market. Interesting. Looking for continued volume as it moves up and resumes the breakout run, following some strong money flow higher.
Volume: 2.366M Avg Volume: 2.212M
BUY POINT: $49.72 Volume=2.6M Target=$56.95 Stop=$47.75
POSITION: AQM AJ - Jan. $50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amln.html
Play Date: 08/15/2007
CROX (Crocs, Inc.--$49.02; -2.94; optionable): Spongy shoes.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crox.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-26-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Low volume the entire month as CROX comes back to the 50 day EMA (48.07), filling the late July gap higher on its earnings report. Like the low volume on the test as that indicates no real dumping just a fade with the market. Money flow remains strong on this fade. CROX is one of the market leaders that has come back in this selling and giving us a solid entry point. Just looking for more volume as it rebounds through the buy point.
Volume: 4.599M Avg Volume: 7.168M
BUY POINT: $50.11 Volume=7.5M Target=$59.95 Stop=$47.89
POSITION: CQJ LW - Dec. $47.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crox.html
Play Date: 08/15/2007
EGOV (Nic, Inc.--$7.21; -0.04; optionable): Services for the US government to provide eGovernment services to us little old citizens
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/egov.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. A long, nicely formed 14 month cup with handle base to set up the next run higher. Nice breakout to start August, rising up off the 50 day EMA on strong volume. It is testing the past week on low, below average volume, hold the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday close as well as the July peak. Very strong in a weak market; have to like that. Looking for the volume to return as EGOV resumes the breakout move.
Volume: 193.884K Avg Volume: 232.469K
BUY POINT: $7.42 Volume=325K Target=$8.95 Stop=$7.05
POSITION: BIQ AU - Jan. $7.50c (48 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/egov.html
Play Date: 08/15/2007
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$91.20; -1.41; optionable): GPS devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
EARNINGS: 8-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. GRMN is getting beaten back the past week after that strong earnings bounce that took it higher out of a two week lateral consolidation. Have been looking for a chance to get back into GRMN after it made us a lot of money through July, and this pullback was shaping up nicely. Then Cramer recommended it tonight and now we have to rush it to the report before it was really ready. With any luck it will continue the test back toward 85 and give us a great entry point. If it starts higher and can hold the move we will start a partial position and then see how it holds. If it bounces and fades we will let it come back and then when it makes the further test we will move in.
Volume: 4.123M Avg Volume: 2.778M
BUY POINT: $92.75 Volume=4.2M Target=$111.95 Stop=$89.89
POSITION: GQR AC - Jan. $95c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/grmn.html
Play Date: 08/15/2007
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$24.00; -0.26; optionable): Cost containment for government healthcare programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. HMSY broke sharply higher on its earnings, clearing a 4 month base in one sharp move. It hit 25 on the high and then started working laterally as the 10 day EMA (23.39) rises to catch up with it. Nice low volume as it works laterally, and now that the 10 day is catching up with it we are looking for a break higher on volume as it continues the move.
Volume: 246.066K Avg Volume: 295.867K
BUY POINT: $24.65 Volume=444K Target=$29.45 Stop=$23.11
POSITION: QHT LX - Dec. $22.50c (67 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hmsy.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/11/2007
AMZN (Amazon.com--$72.38; -1.07; optionable): Internet sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amzn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Still testing the 50 day EMA and the earnings gap higher on very low, below average volume. It is quietly biding its time in the market selling. Money flow is holding strong. That is what we like. To recap: AMZN is enjoying a resurgence though nothing like the $500 price back in the late 1990's. No, this is steady, sustained growth as the earnings demonstrated. AMZN gapped higher on the news, clearing a 10 week ascending base with a big gap higher on the earnings news. It has come back in the selling to test and fill the gap, holding at the 50 day EMA (72.33) as it has done on its other tests. Thus we are looking for a bounce higher from here to give us a buy point as AMZN renews its break higher.
Volume: 6.376M Avg Volume: 12.126M
BUY POINT: $77.18 Volume=15M Target=$88.75 Stop=$72.11
POSITION: ZQN JO - Oct. $75c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amzn.html
Play Date: 08/11/2007
ARTC (Arthrocare--$52.18; +0.89; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/artc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume jumped back above average Wednesday as ARTC bounced off the 18 day EMA test. It came back in the afternoon selling, but it held up very well. Just going to let it break higher and show us the move. To recap: ARTC shot upside in late July as it announced earnings and broke out from an 11 month cup with handle base. Excellent action n the breakout with strong volume and good price moves. Volume remained strong as it rallied, and now ARTC is making a nice test of the breakout, coming back Friday to tap the 18 day EMA on the Friday low and bouncing, showing a nice doji on the session. After a pullback that often indicates a move higher is to come again. Solid market leader giving us a nice entry point.
Volume: 608.506K Avg Volume: 480.599K
BUY POINT: $53.11 Volume=800K Target=$60.95 Stop=$51.08
POSITION: ARU LJ - Dec. $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/artc.html
Play Date: 08/14/2007
FLIR (Flir Systems--$47.55; +0.21; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-25-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Very nice low volume doji at the 18 day EMA as FLIR continues its test of that strong August move. Like its relative strength. Want to see it continue to hang on and then give us the break upside. To recap: After a nice run in June and July out of a 7 week double bottom base FLIR was sold in the late July dumping, coming back to test and hold the 90 day SMA. It bounced smartly off that level and then ran higher to start August and through last week. Strong upside trade. This week it has faded back to the 18 day EMA on low volume. We are looking for FLIR to hold this test and give another buy point as it starts back up.
Volume: 566.45K Avg Volume: 909.722K
BUY POINT: $49.78 Volume=1.2M Target=$57.95 Stop=$47.22
POSITION: FFQ AI - Jan. $45c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/flir.html
Play Date: 08/13/2007
FNDT (Fundtech Ltd.--$15.54; +0.21; no options): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fndt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-8-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Nice volume again as it bumped the buy point. If it continues from here on any decent trade it is a buy. To recap: Big volume Monday as FNDT surged past the July high at 15.20, clearing the 'hump' in its 14 week double bottom base. Strong money flow is surging higher as FNDT pushes to a new 7 year high. Lighter trade on this one but very strong fundamentally and technically.
Volume: 59.598K Avg Volume: 50K
BUY POINT: $15.55 Volume=100K Target=$18.75 Stop=$14.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fndt.html
Play Date: 08/13/2007
ISRG (Intuitive Surgical--$194.61; -2.19; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isrg.html
EARNINGS: 7-19-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still testing, slipping below the 18 day EMA Wednesday but on continued low volume. Just going to be patient and let it make the test and then we will move in as it breaks higher. Lowered the buy point. To recap: Blasted higher in July, gapping out of a long 18 month base. Massive breakout. It has spent the past 4 weeks working laterally as the 10 day EMA (202.84) caught up with it. It ended last week selling off, holding at the 18 day EMA (196.41). Like this shakeout and ready to move in as ISRG rallies higher on some rising trade. Powerful stock.
Volume: 813.796K Avg Volume: 967.687K
BUY POINT: New: 196.55 (orig. $203.04) Volume=1.2M Target=$245.00 Stop=$196.11
POSITION: AXV JI - Oct. $200c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/isrg.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/14/2007
BBBB (Blackboard--$40.14; +0.07; optionable): Multimedia graphics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbbb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-07
STATUS: Put. Rallied up to the 10 day EMA intraday Wednesday and then faded to close just below the 90 day SMA. Very low volume so it was no reversal on high volume, but like the inability to hold the move. Looking for a bit more trade as BBBB turns down from here. To recap: BBBB gapped lower to start August, diving lower on its earnings results. It managed to bottom at 38 and rebound, but it has started to come back, closing just below the 90 day SMA (40.14) on Tuesday. Volume was low, but money flow is diving lower ahead of price, and there is a big gap up from 35 in early May. We are looking for that gravity to pull BBBB lower. Our initial target is the August lows, but if this selling continues, a trip down to the 35 level is likely. A move to the initial target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 239.401K Avg Volume: 485.009K
BUY POINT: $39.94 Volume=525K Target=$37.90 Stop=$40.44
POSITION: BPU UP - Sept. $40p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bbbb.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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