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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Leader Plays:
Play Date: 08/16/2007
MORN (Morningstar--$59.16; +1.90; optionable): Asset management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/morn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice surge on the earnings to start August, breaking MORN out of a nice little 13 week cup with handle pattern. Excellent volume as it surged higher to 67, and then a nice lower volume test of the move, holding the 18 day EMA (56.86). Good test of near support and then bounced Thursday on a strong bounce in volume that took it back well above average. Strong money flow is leading the way as MORN runs higher to continue the breakout run.
Volume: 247.829K Avg Volume: 146.585K
BUY POINT: $59.65 Volume=225K Target=$69.95 Stop=$56.68
POSITION: QMR LL - Dec. $60c (51 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/morn.html
Play Date: 08/16/2007
WYNN (Wynn Resorts--$110.98; -3.49; optionable): Resorts & casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wynn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-6-07
STATUS: Breakout test. WYNN is another strong stock that gapped out of a base on its earnings news. It surged in early August on the report, gapping out of a 6 month double bottom with handle base. The gap made it very hard to get into, but patience has paid off as WYNN tests the move. It never sold back very hard, holding the 10 day EMA (110.90) every session until Thursday when it undercut the 18 day EMA and filled the gap. It rebounded sharply and closed at the 10 day EMA as volume ratcheted up. This doji indicates WYNN is done with the pullback and is ready to be an upside wynner for us.
Volume: 3.228M Avg Volume: 1.985M
BUY POINT: $114.65 Volume=2.9M Target=$134.95 Stop=$110.65
POSITION: UWY LC - Dec. $115c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wynn.html
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 08/16/2007
CPHD (Cepheid--$17.81; +0.95; optionable): Scientific instruments for testing biomarket threats, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cphd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-6-07
STATUS: Breakout test. CPHD just made the second test of its late June breakout from an 11 week cup with handle base. Nice strong moves off of support, and Thursday was another one, bouncing nicely on stronger, above. Money flow is leading higher as CPHD stretches for a 7 year high. Very nice place to move in with new positions.
Volume: 1.161M Avg Volume: 939.649K
BUY POINT: $18.21 Volume=1.2M Target=$21.95 Stop=$16.94
POSITION: QHY LW - Dec. $17.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cphd.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Still in it deep, gapping below the 90 day SMA and not recovering that level Thursday.
APD: Well, it is no longer in the pattern.
BG: Diving to the 90 day SMA on rising volume.
BIDU: In a lot of pain, gapping lower but then managing to rebound to cut quite a bit of its losses.
CELG: Tested the 200 day SMA on the low and recovered to the 50 day SMA.
COST: Forecast mid-October. Will have to stage a recovery.
DE: Forecast late August. Great earnings but it was not ready to make the move. Trying to set up a double bottom here.
FCN: No split announced but FCN continues its strong ways
HRS: Forecast late August.
JEC: Managed to come back from the big intraday sell off
NOV: Gave up the 50 day EMA with a gap lower but managed to hold the 90 day SMA.
NVDA: Gapped lower and sold off but recovered to hold at the 50 day EMA on the close.
OII: Gapped lower Thursday, but it did fill the early August gap higher on its intraday low and rebounded.
PCU: Looking at late October. Massive gap lower, managing to bounce off the 200 day SMA and recover 9 points off the low.
VIP: Researching date. Bombs away this week.
WOOF: Showing some good relative strength as it holds the 50 day EMA
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/16/2007
BLUD (Immucor--$32.49; +0.69; optionable): Diagnostic Substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blud.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-25-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice volume surge Thursday after a week of very low trade as BLUD worked laterally over the 10 day EMA (31.89), forming the handle to its 18 week base. It is perched just below an all-time high, setting up a sweet little pattern for a breakout. Nice money flow is running higher ahead of price even as BLUD works laterally, another sign of the accumulation in the stock. Like the volume jump and looking for more as the stock moves through the buy point.
Volume: 946.33K Avg Volume: 927.633K
BUY POINT: $33.48 Volume=1.4M Target=$39.45 Stop=$31.22
POSITION: QMQ LF - Dec. $30c (67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/blud.html
Play Date: 08/16/2007
UA (Under Armour--$60.39; +1.30; optionable): Sports clothing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ua.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-07
STATUS: Breakout test. UA gapped higher on its earnings report, clearing a 16 week cup with handle base on the news. It was a big gap higher that did not give us a chance to get in, but after a run higher on that break it is testing back. Thursday it sold down to the 50 day EMA near 55 on the low and then rebounded on a strong shot of above average volume, posting a nice gain on the session close. Looking for a continued move up through the 10 day EMA (61.89) to move in. One of those leaders that is acting quite well and just sold a bit to test during the market blood letting.
Volume: 2.245M Avg Volume: 1.455M
BUY POINT: $61.94 Volume=1.8M Target=$74.45 Stop=$58.77
POSITION: UA AL - Jan. $60c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ua.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/15/2007
ZUMZ (Zumiez--$41.17; +1.21; optionable): Specialty retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zumz.html
EARNINGS: 8-22-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Nice action as ZUMZ bounces off the 50 day EMA (39.32) on more strong, above average volume after holding that level in the Wednesday selling, also on strong volume. That shows a lot of interest in supporting the stock at that level despite the hedge fund selling in the rest of the market. Looks very good. To cap: ZUMZ reported strong same store sales last Thursday and that was the cap of a strong 4 day surge off the 200 day SMA. That move broke it out of a 4.5 month base on strong volume, but in the selling Friday to Wednesday it came back to test, holding at the 50 day EMA (39.24). Wednesday it held that level and showed a doji on the candlestick chart as volume jumped higher again. That often indicates a pullback is slowing, changing momentum. One of the strong in retail, we are looking for a rebound as the market selling abates, but we want to see continued solid trade as it does.
Volume: 923.915K Avg Volume: 697.889K
BUY POINT: $41.55 Volume=1M Target=$49.95 Stop=$38.65
POSITION: QUY KH - Nov. $40c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zumz.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/11/2007
SSYS (Stratasys--$48.08; +0.07; optionable): Computer peripherals. Splits 2:1 on 8-30-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssys.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-1-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. SSYS broke higher on its earnings, clearing an 8 week reverse head and shoulders base. It sold back Tuesday but it held support at the 50 day EMA (46.65) and bounced on rising, average volume. Looks ready to resume the break higher.
Volume: 200.102K Avg Volume: 182.246K
BUY POINT: $50.32 Volume=280K Target=$58.75 Stop=$48.11
POSITION: QQG LJ - Dec. $50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssys.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 08/15/2007
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$22.92; -1.08; optionable): Cost containment for government healthcare programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped lower Thursday but volume remained below average as HMSY continues to test the earnings induced breakout from a 4 month base. Looks like the final shakeout before resuming the move. Just want to see some bigger volume as it makes the move higher. To recap: HMSY broke sharply higher on its earnings, clearing a 4 month base in one sharp move. It hit 25 on the high and then started working laterally as the 10 day EMA (23.30) rises to catch up with it. Nice low volume as it works laterally, and though it fell below the 10 day EMA Thursday it still is in great position to move higher.
Volume: 300.563K Avg Volume: 295.867K
BUY POINT: $24.65 Volume=444K Target=$29.45 Stop=$23.11
POSITION: QHT LX - Dec. $22.50c (67 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hmsy.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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