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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 08/18/2007
DE (Deere & Co.--$124.61; +4.08; optionable): Farm equipment, gators, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/de.html
EARNINGS: 11-21-07
STATUS: Double bottom. DE ran through the market selling like a deer. Well, maybe a deer that was trying not to get shot, but it worked. It held the 90 day SMA (119) on mostly lower volume, showing strong volume on a strong earnings report. The action has set up a short but nice 5 week double bottom that is ready to lift DE to a new high after the next breakout. Solid. They say nothing runs like a Deere and it looks as if we are about to see that running.
Volume: 3.595M Avg Volume: 2.751M
BUY POINT: $126.95 Volume=4M Target=$145.95 Stop=$122.55
POSITION: DE LE - Dec. $125c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/de.html
Play Date: 08/18/2007
KCI (Kinetic Concepts, Inc.--$58.44; +1.87; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kci.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-20-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. KCI gapped higher in July on its earnings results and moved over 66 on the break higher. In the subsequent market selling it tested the move, filling the gap and indeed sinking further on the harsh selling just over a week back. In last week's selling, however, KCI rebounded and then moved laterally along the 50 day EMA (56.24). Volume was up Friday as it moved up through the 18 day EMA, and KCI looks ready to recover and give us another run up to that July high at least.
Volume: 963.5K Avg Volume: 963.154K
BUY POINT: $59.05 Volume=1.4M Target=$67.95 Stop=$56.11
POSITION: KCI LL - Dec. $60c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/kci.html
Play Date: 08/18/2007
TRAK (Dealer Track Holdings--$38.80; +2.30; no options): Software for tracking net sales, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trak.html
EARNINGS: 8-2-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Excellent action over the two months of market turbulence, making some higher lows at the 90 day SMA (35.85) over the past four weeks as it bumped into the constant high at 40. Very solid volume to end last week as it tested the 90 day SMA Thursday and rebounded, and continued the move Friday. Money flow is rallying ahead of price, and with its strong earnings growth rate to match its pattern it is ready to make the break higher.
Volume: 367.326K Avg Volume: 307.846K
BUY POINT: $40.55 Volume=462K Target=$47.65 Stop=$27.87
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/trak.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 08/18/2007
BCSI (Blue Coat Systems--$55.65; +2.27; optionable): Hardware and software for security in web communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcsi.html
EARNINGS: 8-22-07
STATUS: Ascending base. BCSI gapped higher to a new closing high Friday on some strong volume. Indeed, it showed strong volume the past two weeks as it worked laterally over the 50 day EMA (49.83) in its 5 week base. Excellent action in a weak market. Ready for those earnings and we are willing to move in ahead of those earnings.
Volume: 817.033K Avg Volume: 516.219K
BUY POINT: $56.44 Volume=675K Target=$66.95 Stop=$53.22
POSITION: IYU AK - Jan. $55c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bcsi.html
Play Date: 08/18/2007
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$34.74; +0.10; optionable): Positioning devices for government, military, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-07
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. A solid winner for us, TRMB got a bit rocky last week in the market air pockets (some would say freefalls), and it came back to the 50 day EMA (33.86) on three separate tests. Each time it rebounded sharply, however, indicating there is a lot of support for the stock. Looking for TRMB to bounce again after this test and give us a new entry point for the next upside leg.
Volume: 675.127K Avg Volume: 886.95K
BUY POINT: $36.21 Volume=1.3M Target=$41.95 Stop=$33.78
POSITION: TUH AG - Jan. $35c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/trmb.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/18/2007
ETFC (E Trade Financial--$14.50; +0.95; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/etfc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-25-07
STATUS: Put. After that big plunge lower from the 10 day EMA (15.56) starting last Monday, ETFC plunged on the worries regarding sub-prime issues. After the deep dive Thursday it gapped higher Friday on the Fed action, but it could only make it to the 10 day EMA before rolling over. The Fed is on the case so to speak, but the sub-prime issue is not gone. It will still impact those stocks involved. We are looking for ETFC to continue down from the 10 day EMA, making another run lower in its downtrend. A move to the initial target is within the last deep test lower, and it lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 32.72M Avg Volume: 13.276M
BUY POINT: $14.22 Volume=20M Target=$12.54 Stop=$14.85
POSITION: EUS UF - Sept. $15p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/etfc.html
Play Date: 08/18/2007
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$144.71; 0.00; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
STATUS: Put. Another downside that we are ready to reload on and take advantage of if it rolls over again. After that plunge lower last week to 137 on the low it gapped higher on the Fed action, opening just below the 200 day SMA (145.50). It tried to move through that level but it could not hold it on the close. It did hold the 10 day EMA (144.58) on the close, but that is not the key moving average here. If SP500 cannot move up through the 200 day and hold we are going to look to play it on the next downside move. A run to the initial target lands a 39%ish gain. If the financials are in full flight again at that point we will, of course, let it continue to run.
Volume: 388.218M Avg Volume: 229.617M
BUY POINT: $144.48 Volume=235M Target=$140.35 Stop=$145.72
POSITION: SFB UO - Sept. $145p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/spy.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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