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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/18/2007
KCI (Kinetic Concepts, Inc.--$58.44; +1.87; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kci.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-20-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. KCI gapped higher in July on its earnings results and moved over 66 on the break higher. In the subsequent market selling it tested the move, filling the gap and indeed sinking further on the harsh selling just over a week back. In last week's selling, however, KCI rebounded and then moved laterally along the 50 day EMA (56.24). Volume was up Friday as it moved up through the 18 day EMA, and KCI looks ready to recover and give us another run up to that July high at least.
Volume: 963.5K Avg Volume: 963.154K
BUY POINT: $59.05 Volume=1.4M Target=$67.95 Stop=$56.11
POSITION: KCI LL - Dec. $60c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kci.html
Play Date: 08/18/2007
TRAK (Dealer Track Holdings--$38.80; +2.30; no options): Software for tracking net sales, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trak.html
EARNINGS: 8-2-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Excellent action over the two months of market turbulence, making some higher lows at the 90 day SMA (35.85) over the past four weeks as it bumped into the constant high at 40. Very solid volume to end last week as it tested the 90 day SMA Thursday and rebounded, and continued the move Friday. Money flow is rallying ahead of price, and with its strong earnings growth rate to match its pattern it is ready to make the break higher.
Volume: 367.326K Avg Volume: 307.846K
BUY POINT: $40.55 Volume=462K Target=$47.65 Stop=$27.87
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/trak.html
New buy point on current positions:
Play Date: 08/18/2007
BCSI (Blue Coat Systems--$55.65; +2.27; optionable): Hardware and software for security in web communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcsi.html
EARNINGS: 8-22-07
STATUS: Ascending base. BCSI gapped higher to a new closing high Friday on some strong volume. Indeed, it showed strong volume the past two weeks as it worked laterally over the 50 day EMA (49.83) in its 5 week base. Excellent action in a weak market. Ready for those earnings and we are willing to move in ahead of those earnings.
Volume: 817.033K Avg Volume: 516.219K
BUY POINT: $56.44 Volume=675K Target=$66.95 Stop=$53.22
POSITION: IYU AK - Jan. $55c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bcsi.html
Play Date: 08/18/2007
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$34.74; +0.10; optionable): Positioning devices for government, military, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-07
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. A solid winner for us, TRMB got a bit rocky last week in the market air pockets (some would say freefalls), and it came back to the 50 day EMA (33.86) on three separate tests. Each time it rebounded sharply, however, indicating there is a lot of support for the stock. Looking for TRMB to bounce again after this test and give us a new entry point for the next upside leg.
Volume: 675.127K Avg Volume: 886.95K
BUY POINT: $36.21 Volume=1.3M Target=$41.95 Stop=$33.78
POSITION: TUH AG - Jan. $35c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/trmb.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/18/2007
ETFC (E Trade Financial--$14.50; +0.95; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/etfc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-25-07
STATUS: Put. After that big plunge lower from the 10 day EMA (15.56) starting last Monday, ETFC plunged on the worries regarding sub-prime issues. After the deep dive Thursday it gapped higher Friday on the Fed action, but it could only make it to the 10 day EMA before rolling over. The Fed is on the case so to speak, but the sub-prime issue is not gone. It will still impact those stocks involved. We are looking for ETFC to continue down from the 10 day EMA, making another run lower in its downtrend. A move to the initial target is within the last deep test lower, and it lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 32.72M Avg Volume: 13.276M
BUY POINT: $14.22 Volume=20M Target=$12.54 Stop=$14.85
POSITION: EUS UF - Sept. $15p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/etfc.html
Play Date: 08/18/2007
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$144.71; 0.00; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
STATUS: Put. Another downside that we are ready to reload on and take advantage of if it rolls over again. After that plunge lower last week to 137 on the low it gapped higher on the Fed action, opening just below the 200 day SMA (145.50). It tried to move through that level but it could not hold it on the close. It did hold the 10 day EMA (144.58) on the close, but that is not the key moving average here. If SP500 cannot move up through the 200 day and hold we are going to look to play it on the next downside move. A run to the initial target lands a 39%ish gain. If the financials are in full flight again at that point we will, of course, let it continue to run.
Volume: 388.218M Avg Volume: 229.617M
BUY POINT: $144.48 Volume=235M Target=$140.35 Stop=$145.72
POSITION: SFB UO - Sept. $145p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/spy.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/15/2007
AMLN (Amylin Pharmaceuticals--$49.20; +1.55; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amln.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-23-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice action to end the week, holding the 18 day EMA Thursday and bouncing Friday. Just needs some more volume as it continues higher off this excellent test. To recap: Broke out of a 13 month cup with handle base to start August continuing the move that started on the earnings report. Strong upside trade and now a nice lower volume test back, holding the July high and the 18 day EMA on the low. It bounced Wednesday on rising, average trade in a weak market. Interesting. Looking for continued volume as it moves up and resumes the breakout run, following some strong money flow higher.
Volume: 1.805M Avg Volume: 2.251M
BUY POINT: $49.72 Volume=2.6M Target=$56.95 Stop=$47.75
POSITION: AQM AJ - Jan. $50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amln.html
Play Date: 08/11/2007
AMZN (Amazon.com--$75.02; +2.23; optionable): Internet sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amzn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Waited patiently at the 50 day EMA during the market selling and then bounced Friday up to the 10 and 18 day EMA. No volume so it was not ready to punch through. Looks ready. To recap: AMZN is enjoying a resurgence though nothing like the $500 price back in the late 1990's. No, this is steady, sustained growth as the earnings demonstrated. AMZN gapped higher on the news, clearing a 10 week ascending base with a big gap higher on the earnings news. It has come back in the selling to test and fill the gap, holding at the 50 day EMA as it has done on its other tests. Thus we are looking for a bounce higher from here to give us a buy point as AMZN renews its break higher.
Volume: 7.244M Avg Volume: 11.855M
BUY POINT: $75.89 Volume=15M Target=$87.75 Stop=$72.31
POSITION: ZQN JO - Oct. $75c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amzn.html
Play Date: 08/15/2007
EGOV (Nic, Inc.--$7.52; +0.16; optionable): Services for the US government to provide eGovernment services to us little old citizens
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/egov.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher Friday on another above average volume session. It was an up and down day, falling back to the 18 day EMA on the low before rebounding again into the close. Nice up and down action and if it can continue higher this week we are ready to move in. To recap: A long, nicely formed 14 month cup with handle base to set up the next run higher. Nice breakout to start August, rising up off the 50 day EMA on strong volume. It is testing the past week on low, below average volume, hold the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday close as well as the July peak. Very strong in a weak market; have to like that. Looking for the volume to return as EGOV resumes the breakout move.
Volume: 289.596K Avg Volume: 234.969K
BUY POINT: $7.42 Volume=325K Target=$8.95 Stop=$7.05
POSITION: BIQ AU - Jan. $7.50c (48 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/egov.html
Play Date: 08/15/2007
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$24.60; +1.68; optionable): Cost containment for government healthcare programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped back up Friday after the Thursday gap lower to test the 18 day EMA (22.61). Good survival during the selling and volume was up Friday as HMSY gapped back up. Ready to move in if it continues higher this week. To recap: HMSY broke sharply higher on its earnings, clearing a 4 month base in one sharp move. It hit 25 on the high and then started working laterally as the 10 day EMA rises to catch up with it. Nice low volume as it works laterally, and now that the 10 day is catching up with it we are looking for a break higher on volume as it continues the move.
Volume: 365.402K Avg Volume: 300.296K
BUY POINT: $24.65 Volume=444K Target=$29.45 Stop=$23.11
POSITION: QHT LX - Dec. $22.50c (67 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hmsy.html
Play Date: 08/11/2007
SSYS (Stratasys--$49.30; +1.22; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssys.html
EARNINGS: 8-1-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Broke out of a short reverse head and shoulders base (8 weeks) 7 sessions back. In the market selling it came back to test, holding the 50 day EMA (46.76) early last week and bouncing off of that level to end the week. Excellent strength in the pattern with strong money flow leading higher. Looks set up very well for the next breakout move.
Volume: 145.903K Avg Volume: 182.6K
BUY POINT: $50.32 Volume=280K Target=$58.75 Stop=$48.11
POSITION: QQG LJ - Dec. $50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ssys.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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