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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: A lot of top rated stocks with strong fundamentals are set up to move back up.
Leader Plays:
New post-split plays:
Play Date: 08/18/2007
ANSS (Ansys--$32.26; +1.27; optionable): Technical system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. ANSS gapped out of a 15 month cup with handle base in early August on those strong earnings. It surged near 36 on the run and then in the market selling last week it made its first test, falling back toward the 18 day EMA (29.71). It bounced Thursday in the market selling, moving on strong volume. Friday it gapped higher. May come back toward 31 to fill the gap, but showing excellent strength and we will be ready to enter some positions as it continues higher.
Volume: 838.922K Avg Volume: 841.193K
BUY POINT: $32.58 Volume=865K Target=$38.95 Stop=$30.48
POSITION: QUS AF - Jan. $30c (68 delta, 99 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
Play Date: 08/18/2007
ATLS (Atlas America--$49.32; +1.29; no options): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atls.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-9-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Energy stocks have come under pressure, but ATLS is handling it quite well. Indeed, it is using the selling to set up a new base without giving up much ground. Made a higher low at the 90 day SMA late last week after a lower leg to start August; not your traditional double bottom with the right leg undercutting the left, but with a stock that is strong such as ATLS has shown itself to be, it does not have to make that second full test because the buyers wont let it. Looking for some strong trade as it continues higher.
Volume: 231.892K Avg Volume: 174.461K
BUY POINT: $51.45 Volume=272K Target=$61.75 Stop=$47.85
POSITION: - Stock (no OI in the options)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atls.html
Play Date: 08/18/2007
GEO (The Geo Group--$29.79; +2.05; optionable): Manages prisons, mental health facilities in US, Australia, Canada, UK, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/geo.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-8-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. GEO surged on its earnings just over a week back and then sold off in the market selling last week, bouncing off the 90 and 50 day EMA (28.23) Thursday and Friday on strong volume. The earnings broke GEO out from a 10 week base, sending it to a new high. The selling pushed it right back down. It has strong fundamentals growth rates and it bounced right back after the sell off to support. Money flow remains strong and we are looking for it to lead GEO back up. We are going to be ready to move in as it does.
Volume: 825.2K Avg Volume: 781.772K
BUY POINT: $30.11 Volume=1M Target=$36.22 Stop=$28.21
POSITION: GEO LF - Dec. $30c (50 delta, 258 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/geo.html
New buy point on a current post-split position:
Play Date: 08/18/2007
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$34.74; +0.10; optionable): Positioning devices for government, military, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-07
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. A solid winner for us, TRMB got a bit rocky last week in the market air pockets (some would say freefalls), and it came back to the 50 day EMA (33.86) on three separate tests. Each time it rebounded sharply, however, indicating there is a lot of support for the stock. Looking for TRMB to bounce again after this test and give us a new entry point for the next upside leg.
Volume: 675.127K Avg Volume: 886.95K
BUY POINT: $36.21 Volume=1.3M Target=$41.95 Stop=$33.78
POSITION: TUH AG - Jan. $35c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trmb.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/18/2007
ETFC (E Trade Financial--$14.50; +0.95; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/etfc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-25-07
STATUS: Put. After that big plunge lower from the 10 day EMA (15.56) starting last Monday, ETFC plunged on the worries regarding sub-prime issues. After the deep dive Thursday it gapped higher Friday on the Fed action, but it could only make it to the 10 day EMA before rolling over. The Fed is on the case so to speak, but the sub-prime issue is not gone. It will still impact those stocks involved. We are looking for ETFC to continue down from the 10 day EMA, making another run lower in its downtrend. A move to the initial target is within the last deep test lower, and it lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 32.72M Avg Volume: 13.276M
BUY POINT: $14.22 Volume=20M Target=$12.54 Stop=$14.85
POSITION: EUS UF - Sept. $15p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/etfc.html
Play Date: 08/18/2007
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$144.71; 0.00; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
STATUS: Put. Another downside that we are ready to reload on and take advantage of if it rolls over again. After that plunge lower last week to 137 on the low it gapped higher on the Fed action, opening just below the 200 day SMA (145.50). It tried to move through that level but it could not hold it on the close. It did hold the 10 day EMA (144.58) on the close, but that is not the key moving average here. If SP500 cannot move up through the 200 day and hold we are going to look to play it on the next downside move. A run to the initial target lands a 39%ish gain. If the financials are in full flight again at that point we will, of course, let it continue to run.
Volume: 388.218M Avg Volume: 229.617M
BUY POINT: $144.48 Volume=235M Target=$140.35 Stop=$145.72
POSITION: SFB UO - Sept. $145p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/spy.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Gapped back above the 90 day SMA to hold the key 120 level. Still has a lot of work to do.
BG: Still trying to recover off the 90 day SMA.
BIDU: Bounced up to the 50 day EMA and showed a doji on the close below that key level. We did not like that action and exited for now.
BLUD: Nice gap higher Friday to start the play.
CELG: Tapped at the 200 day SMA twice and then rebounded twice to end the week. Still working on its base and doing so in good shape.
COST: Forecast mid-October. Right back down to the 90 day SMA on Friday on some strong volume.
DE: Forecast late August. Still setting up that double bottom.
FCN: No split announced but FCN continues its strong ways
HRS: Forecast late August.
JEC: Trying to hold on at support at 60.
NOV: Bounced up to the 50 day EMA but could not move through on the Friday bounce attempt.
NVDA: Speaking of strong, NVDA bounced off the 50 day EMA last week and Friday was moving nicely back up. Looking to move into some more positions as it clears 45.35.
OII: Excellent rebound Friday.
UA: Nice gap up over the 10 and 18 day EMA to end the week.
WOOF: Tried the move off the 50 day EMA Friday but then gave it all back and a bit more.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/18/2007
DE (Deere & Co.--$124.61; +4.08; optionable): Farm equipment, gators, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/de.html
EARNINGS: 11-21-07
STATUS: Double bottom. DE ran through the market selling like a deer. Well, maybe a deer that was trying not to get shot, but it worked. It held the 90 day SMA (119) on mostly lower volume, showing strong volume on a strong earnings report. The action has set up a short but nice 5 week double bottom that is ready to lift DE to a new high after the next breakout. Solid. They say nothing runs like a Deere and it looks as if we are about to see that running.
Volume: 3.595M Avg Volume: 2.751M
BUY POINT: $126.95 Volume=4M Target=$145.95 Stop=$122.55
POSITION: DE LE - Dec. $125c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/de.html
Play Date: 08/18/2007
SII (Smith International--$59.30; +1.24; optionable): Oil and gas equipment, services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sii.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-07
STATUS: Double bottom. SII was rocking along nicely two weeks back as it came off a solid test of the 90 day SMA (57.03), showing solid volume as it moved higher. It got caught in last week's selling, however, and again tested back to the 90 day, undercutting it on the Thursday low but holding the early August low at 54 once more and bouncing back intraday just as it did then. Excellent volume Thursday and then Friday as it continued higher. Like the quick comeback and looking for a continued move up to give us a good entry point.
Volume: 4.607M Avg Volume: 3.031M
BUY POINT: $60.12 Volume=4.5M Target=$69.45 Stop=$57.94
POSITION: SIK AL - Jan. $60c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sii.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/15/2007
ZUMZ (Zumiez--$41.15; -0.02; optionable): Specialty retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zumz.html
EARNINGS: 8-22-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Gapped higher on solid volume, rallying to 44 on the high. We held off at the open and then as it cam back we were ready to move in. It kept coming back and moved back to flat by the close. We decided not to be a hero and to wait until Monday and see how it reacts. If it starts back up we will be ready to move in. To cap: ZUMZ reported strong same store sales last Thursday and that was the cap of a strong 4 day surge off the 200 day SMA. That move broke it out of a 4.5 month base on strong volume, but in the selling Friday to Wednesday it came back to test, holding at the 50 day EMA (39.24). Wednesday it held that level and showed a doji on the candlestick chart as volume jumped higher again. That often indicates a pullback is slowing, changing momentum. One of the strong in retail, we are looking for a rebound as the market selling abates, but we want to see continued solid trade as it does.
Volume: 965.992K Avg Volume: 721.592K
BUY POINT: $41.55 Volume=1M Target=$49.95 Stop=$38.65
POSITION: QUY KH - Nov. $40c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zumz.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/11/2007
SSYS (Stratasys--$49.30; +1.22; optionable): Computer peripherals. Splits 2:1 on 8-30-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssys.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-1-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Broke out of a short reverse head and shoulders base (8 weeks) 7 sessions back. In the market selling it came back to test, holding the 50 day EMA (46.76) early last week and bouncing off of that level to end the week. Excellent strength in the pattern with strong money flow leading higher. Looks set up very well for the next breakout move. To recap: SSYS broke higher on its earnings, clearing an 8 week reverse head and shoulders base. It sold back Tuesday but it held support at the 50 day EMA and bounced on rising, average volume. Looks ready to resume the break higher.
Volume: 145.903K Avg Volume: 182.6K
BUY POINT: $50.32 Volume=280K Target=$58.75 Stop=$48.11
POSITION: QQG LJ - Dec. $50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssys.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 08/16/2007
CPHD (Cepheid--$17.89; +0.08; optionable): Scientific instruments for testing biomarket threats, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cphd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-6-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher Friday on some solid trade, but could not hold the move, coming back to flat on the close. Still showing outstanding action and ready to move in as CPHD continues higher. To recap: CPHD is coming off the second test of its late June breakout from an 11 week cup with handle base. Nice strong moves off of support, and Thursday was another one, bouncing nicely on stronger, above. Money flow is leading higher as CPHD stretches for a 7 year high. Very nice place to move in with new positions.
Volume: 1.209M Avg Volume: 962.132K
BUY POINT: $18.21 Volume=1.2M Target=$21.95 Stop=$16.94
POSITION: QHY LW - Dec. $17.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cphd.html
Play Date: 08/15/2007
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$24.60; +1.68; optionable): Cost containment for government healthcare programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped back up Friday after the Thursday gap lower to test the 18 day EMA (22.61). Good survival during the selling and volume was up Friday as HMSY gapped back up. Ready to move in if it continues higher this week. To recap: HMSY broke sharply higher on its earnings, clearing a 4 month base in one sharp move. It hit 25 on the high and then started working laterally as the 10 day EMA rises to catch up with it. Nice low volume as it works laterally, and now that the 10 day is catching up with it we are looking for a break higher on volume as it continues the move.
Volume: 365.402K Avg Volume: 300.296K
BUY POINT: $24.65 Volume=444K Target=$29.45 Stop=$23.11
POSITION: QHT LX - Dec. $22.50c (67 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hmsy.html
Play Date: 08/16/2007
WYNN (Wynn Resorts--$112.34; +1.36; optionable): Resorts & casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wynn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-6-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Big test lower Thursday but recovered to hold the 10 day EMA on the close, and then a nice tight doji Friday on low, below average volume, still holding the nice test. It is primed to come up all aces. To recap: WYNN is another strong stock that gapped out of a base on its earnings news. It surged in early August on the report, gapping out of a 6 month double bottom with handle base. The gap made it very hard to get into, but patience has paid off as WYNN tests the move. It never sold back very hard, holding the 10 day EMA (111.16) every session until Thursday when it undercut the 18 day EMA and filled the gap. It rebounded sharply and closed at the 10 day EMA as volume ratcheted up. This doji indicates WYNN is done with the pullback and is ready to be an upside wynner for us.
Volume: 1.779M Avg Volume: 2.074M
BUY POINT: $114.65 Volume=2.9M Target=$134.95 Stop=$110.65
POSITION: UWY LC - Dec. $115c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wynn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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