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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 08/20/2007
AFSI (Am Trust Financial Services--$14.84; -0.16; optionable): Insurance broker
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afsi.html
STATUS: Double bottom. A new issued in November 2006, AFSI surged nicely through early July and then started the current base. Nice run that needed a breather, and this pattern is giving it just that. Like how it has held above the April consolidation during the recent selling, forming a short double bottom this month. It gapped higher Friday on stronger, above average volume, then moved laterally Monday on low trade. May form a handle here below the 50 day EMA (15.60) over the next few days, but when it gives us a higher volume break over the 50 day we will be ready move in. Like how it has plenty of room above it without having to hit a new high. Looking mainly at stock on this one as there are very few open interests in the options and that is asking for problems.
Volume: 413.292K Avg Volume: 750K
BUY POINT: $15.72 Volume=875K Target=$20.45 Stop=$14.62
POSITION: QFF LC - Dec. $15c (49 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/afsi.html
Play Date: 08/20/2007
SLB (Schlumberger--$90.70; +2.14; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
EARNINGS: 7-20-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Broke out in April from a 11 month base, rallying nicely up the 18 day EMA (90.23). Came close to 100 on the move and has now tested back in the selling, back to the 50 day EMA (88.12) with a quick dip to the 90 day SMA on the Thursday intraday low. Nice recovery and ready to move in as SLB continues higher on the return of above average volume.
Volume: 7.847M Avg Volume: 10.84M
BUY POINT: $91.41 Volume=12M Target=$109.00 Stop=$87.91
POSITION: SLB KS - Nov. $95c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/slb.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/20/2007
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices--$12.10; +0.21; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amd.html
EARNINGS: 7-1-07
STATUS: Put. AMD remains massively weak despite the recovery earlier of the semiconductors. It fell hard from the 10 day EMA (12.46) last week, then rebounded Thursday through Monday, coming back to tap near the 10 day Monday. Showed a doji on lower, below average volume, an indication it is ready to turn back down. Looking for a further turn back down from the 10 day. Another run lower to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 23.967M Avg Volume: 29.106M
BUY POINT: $11.95 Volume=30M Target=$10.95 Stop=$12.32
POSITION: AMD VN - Oct. $12p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amd.html
Play Date: 08/20/2007
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30)--$130.96; +0.41; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Put. After that massive Thursday reversal that sent DIA back up to the 10 day EMA (131.43). It could not punch through Monday, showing a doji at that level on lower, below average volume. Not a lot of strength, but a bit too quiet to jump into the downside. Want to see more overall weakness in the market and some rising volume as it turns back down. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 16.906M Avg Volume: 19.053M
BUY POINT: $130.74 Volume=20M Target=$126.71 Stop=$131.55
POSITION: DAW VA - Oct. $131p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dia.html
Play Date: 08/20/2007
FCX (Freeport McMoran--$79.96; +3.06; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcx.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: Put. After a major collapse last week that took FCX down to the 200 day SMA (68.42) and below on the low, it has rebounded to resistance at the 90 day SMA (80.36). Volume was lower as it rebounded though it was no shrinking violet. Some are saying it is a buy here, but it is ready for another fall before it bottoms and becomes an upside buy. Our initial target is 73 but it could easily make 70 on this decline. A move to the initial target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 13.654M Avg Volume: 10.824M
BUY POINT: $78.94 Volume=14M Target=$73.00 Stop=$80.48
POSITION: FCX VP - Oct. $80p (-43 delta))
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fcx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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