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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/20/2007
HC (Hanover Compressor--$25.39; +0.77; optionable): Compressors, machine tools & accessories
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hc.html
EARNINGS: 7-31-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Volume has surged the past three sessions as HC found bottom in a short 7 week double bottom base that tapped the 200 day SMA (22.02) on the early August low (the first leg) and then toward 22.50 on the Thursday low before snapping back upside. Looking for a 7 year high as it continues up off of this nice little base.
Volume: 5.251M Avg Volume: 1.556M
BUY POINT: $25.94 Volume=1.6M Target=$29.95 Stop=$24.28
POSITION: HC AE - Jan. $25c (55 delta, 158 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hc.html
Play Date: 08/20/2007
SLB (Schlumberger--$90.70; +2.14; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
EARNINGS: 7-20-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Broke out in April from a 11 month base, rallying nicely up the 18 day EMA (90.23). Came close to 100 on the move and has now tested back in the selling, back to the 50 day EMA (88.12) with a quick dip to the 90 day SMA on the Thursday intraday low. Nice recovery and ready to move in as SLB continues higher on the return of above average volume.
Volume: 7.847M Avg Volume: 10.84M
BUY POINT: $91.41 Volume=12M Target=$109.00 Stop=$87.91
POSITION: SLB KS - Nov. $95c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slb.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/20/2007
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices--$12.10; +0.21; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amd.html
EARNINGS: 7-1-07
STATUS: Put. AMD remains massively weak despite the recovery earlier of the semiconductors. It fell hard from the 10 day EMA (12.46) last week, then rebounded Thursday through Monday, coming back to tap near the 10 day Monday. Showed a doji on lower, below average volume, an indication it is ready to turn back down. Looking for a further turn back down from the 10 day. Another run lower to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 23.967M Avg Volume: 29.106M
BUY POINT: $11.95 Volume=30M Target=$10.95 Stop=$12.32
POSITION: AMD VN - Oct. $12p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amd.html
Play Date: 08/20/2007
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30)--$130.96; +0.41; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Put. After that massive Thursday reversal that sent DIA back up to the 10 day EMA (131.43). It could not punch through Monday, showing a doji at that level on lower, below average volume. Not a lot of strength, but a bit too quiet to jump into the downside. Want to see more overall weakness in the market and some rising volume as it turns back down. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 16.906M Avg Volume: 19.053M
BUY POINT: $130.74 Volume=20M Target=$126.71 Stop=$131.55
POSITION: DAW VA - Oct. $131p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dia.html
Play Date: 08/20/2007
FCX (Freeport McMoran--$79.96; +3.06; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcx.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: Put. After a major collapse last week that took FCX down to the 200 day SMA (68.42) and below on the low, it has rebounded to resistance at the 90 day SMA (80.36). Volume was lower as it rebounded though it was no shrinking violet. Some are saying it is a buy here, but it is ready for another fall before it bottoms and becomes an upside buy. Our initial target is 73 but it could easily make 70 on this decline. A move to the initial target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 13.654M Avg Volume: 10.824M
BUY POINT: $78.94 Volume=14M Target=$73.00 Stop=$80.48
POSITION: FCX VP - Oct. $80p (-43 delta))
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fcx.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/15/2007
AMLN (Amylin Pharmaceuticals--$49.14; -0.06; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amln.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-23-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still solid in the test, still looking for that break higher. To recap: Broke out of a 13 month cup with handle base to start August continuing the move that started on the earnings report. Strong upside trade and now a nice lower volume test back, holding the July high and the 18 day EMA on the low. It bounced Wednesday on rising, average trade in a weak market. Interesting. Looking for continued volume as it moves up and resumes the breakout run, following some strong money flow higher.
Volume: 1.287M Avg Volume: 2.281M
BUY POINT: $49.72 Volume=2.6M Target=$56.95 Stop=$47.75
POSITION: AQM AJ - Jan. $50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amln.html
Play Date: 08/11/2007
AMZN (Amazon.com--$74.70; -0.32; optionable): Internet sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amzn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Still ready to make the move, tapping at the 10 day EMA again on low volume. Still just waiting patiently. To recap: AMZN is enjoying a resurgence though nothing like the $500 price back in the late 1990's. No, this is steady, sustained growth as the earnings demonstrated. AMZN gapped higher on the news, clearing a 10 week ascending base with a big gap higher on the earnings news. It has come back in the selling to test and fill the gap, holding at the 50 day EMA as it has done on its other tests. Thus we are looking for a bounce higher from here to give us a buy point as AMZN renews its break higher.
Volume: 5.901M Avg Volume: 11.802M
BUY POINT: $75.89 Volume=15M Target=$87.75 Stop=$72.31
POSITION: ZQN JO - Oct. $75c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amzn.html
Play Date: 08/15/2007
EGOV (Nic, Inc.--$7.53; +0.01; optionable): Services for the US government to provide eGovernment services to us little old citizens
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/egov.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Low volume so could not continue the gap higher but still looks ready to make the move and ready to move in as it continues on a good volume jump. To recap: A long, nicely formed 14 month cup with handle base to set up the next run higher. Nice breakout to start August, rising up off the 50 day EMA on strong volume. It is testing the past week on low, below average volume, hold the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday close as well as the July peak. Very strong in a weak market; have to like that. Looking for the volume to return as EGOV resumes the breakout move.
Volume: 88.371K Avg Volume: 239.458K
BUY POINT: $7.42 Volume=325K Target=$8.95 Stop=$7.05
POSITION: BIQ AU - Jan. $7.50c (48 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/egov.html
Play Date: 08/15/2007
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$23.99; -0.61; optionable): Cost containment for government healthcare programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Sold back Monday, but on very light trade as HMSY continues to consolidate the break higher. Just a matter of time before it makes the next move. To recap: HMSY broke sharply higher on its earnings, clearing a 4 month base in one sharp move. It hit 25 on the high and then started working laterally as the 10 day EMA rises to catch up with it. Nice low volume as it works laterally, and now that the 10 day is catching up with it we are looking for a break higher on volume as it continues the move.
Volume: 244.32K Avg Volume: 305.853K
BUY POINT: $24.65 Volume=444K Target=$29.45 Stop=$23.11
POSITION: QHT LX - Dec. $22.50c (67 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hmsy.html
Play Date: 08/18/2007
KCI (Kinetic Concepts, Inc.--$59.94; +1.50; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kci.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-20-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. May have been a bit too cautious here as KCI moved higher on another day of rising, average volume. If it can continue we will look at starting some positions. To recap: KCI gapped higher in July on its earnings results and moved over 66 on the break higher. In the subsequent market selling it tested the move, filling the gap and indeed sinking further on the harsh selling just over a week back. In last week's selling, however, KCI rebounded and then moved laterally along the 50 day EMA (56.24). Volume was up Friday as it moved up through the 18 day EMA, and KCI looks ready to recover and give us another run up to that July high at least.
Volume: 626.6K Avg Volume: 955.164K
BUY POINT: $59.05 Volume=1.4M Target=$67.95 Stop=$56.11
POSITION: KCI LL - Dec. $60c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kci.html
Play Date: 08/18/2007
TRAK (Dealer Track Holdings--$39.40; +0.60; no options): Software for tracking net sales, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trak.html
EARNINGS: 8-2-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Gapped higher for a nice gain but no volume. Still looks solid and still ready to move in if it shows the volume on the move through the buy point. To recap: Excellent action over the two months of market turbulence, making some higher lows at the 90 day SMA (35.85) over the past four weeks as it bumped into the constant high at 40. Very solid volume to end last week as it tested the 90 day SMA Thursday and rebounded, and continued the move Friday. Money flow is rallying ahead of price, and with its strong earnings growth rate to match its pattern it is ready to make the break higher.
Volume: 183.567K Avg Volume: 312.819K
BUY POINT: $40.55 Volume=462K Target=$47.65 Stop=$27.87
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/trak.html
Play Date: 08/18/2007
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$35.26; +0.52; optionable): Positioning devices for government, military, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-07
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Still in the pullback on low volume but still holding up nicely. Another once where it is just a matter of time. To recap: A solid winner for us, TRMB got a bit rocky last week in the market air pockets (some would say freefalls), and it came back to the 50 day EMA (33.86) on three separate tests. Each time it rebounded sharply, however, indicating there is a lot of support for the stock. Looking for TRMB to bounce again after this test and give us a new entry point for the next upside leg.
Volume: 453.805K Avg Volume: 907.729K
BUY POINT: $36.21 Volume=1.3M Target=$41.95 Stop=$33.78
POSITION: TUH AG - Jan. $35c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/trmb.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/18/2007
ETFC (E Trade Financial--$14.64; +0.14; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/etfc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-25-07
STATUS: Put. Still stalling at the 10 day EMA (15.40), showing a doji Monday on lighter though still above average trade. Looks ready to fade from here. To recap: After that big plunge lower from the 10 day EMA (15.56) starting last Monday, ETFC plunged on the worries regarding sub-prime issues. After the deep dive Thursday it gapped higher Friday on the Fed action, but it could only make it to the 10 day EMA before rolling over. The Fed is on the case so to speak, but the sub-prime issue is not gone. It will still impact those stocks involved. We are looking for ETFC to continue down from the 10 day EMA, making another run lower in its downtrend. A move to the initial target is within the last deep test lower, and it lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 15.014M Avg Volume: 13.301M
BUY POINT: $14.22 Volume=20M Target=$12.54 Stop=$14.85
POSITION: EUS UF - Sept. $15p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/etfc.html
Play Date: 08/18/2007
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$144.64; -0.07; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
STATUS: Put. Reached lower below the 10 day EMA (144.59) Monday but no volume and it rebounded late. Still below the 200 day SMA (145.54) and still ready to head lower from here according to the pattern. A bit more aggressive as the Fed is in the game, but it is a weak pattern. To recap: Another downside that we are ready to reload on and take advantage of if it rolls over again. After that plunge lower last week to 137 on the low it gapped higher on the Fed action, opening just below the 200 day SMA. It tried to move through that level but it could not hold it on the close. It did hold the 10 day EMA on the close, but that is not the key moving average here. If SP500 cannot move up through the 200 day and hold we are going to look to play it on the next downside move. A run to the initial target lands a 39%ish gain. If the financials are in full flight again at that point we will, of course, let it continue to run.
Volume: 181.577M Avg Volume: 229.522M
BUY POINT: $144.48 Volume=235M Target=$140.35 Stop=$145.72
POSITION: SFB UO - Sept. $145p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/spy.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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