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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
Leader Plays:
Play Date: 08/21/2007
EXM (Excel Maritime Carriers--$35.49; +1.34; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exm.html
EARNINGS: 8-13-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Nice breakout in July from a short but well formed base and then a solid run to 41 on that move. In the market selling EXM gave it all back, falling back to the top of the base where it found support on the intraday lows last week. It rebounded nicely and has approached the hump in the short new base. May try to move laterally here for a few sessions to form a handle, but we like the pattern a lot and if it can break higher from here on strong trade, handle or no, we will be ready to move in.
Volume: 377K Avg Volume: 517.361K
BUY POINT: $36.05 Volume=775K Target=$43.45 Stop=$33.53
POSITION: EXM LG - Dec. $35c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/exm.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Starting off the 90 day SMA with some good volume.
BG: Making a nice bounce off the 90 day SMA
BIDU: Well, BIDU has continued higher and is still moving up.
BLUD: Testing after that nice gap higher Friday to start the play.
CELG: Tapped at the 200 day SMA twice and then rebounded twice to end the week. Tuesday a good move though needs a bit of volume.
COST: Forecast mid-October. Nic solid move off the 90 day SMA.
DE: Forecast late August. Nice break higher.
FCN: No split announced but FCN continues its strong ways
HRS: Forecast late August.
JEC: Trying to hold on at support at 60.
NOV: Bounced up to the 50 day EMA and now trying to hold that level.
NVDA: Looking to move in as it continues higher
OII: Excellent rebound Friday, pausing this week.
SII: Still set up with a double bottom off the 90 day SMA
UA: Continuing the break higher.
WOOF: Tried the move off the 50 day EMA Friday but then gave it all back and a bit more.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/21/2007
AAPL (Apple Computer--$127.57; +5.35; optionable): iPods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: AAPL is coming off the 90 day SMA after finally selling off after its big run. It took a long time to crack but it did and it was able to work off some froth. Tuesday it received a table pounding upgrade and it bounced off this test of 120 (where there is a lot of support from June) on strong, above average volume. It cleared the 50 day EMA but still need to see a continued strong move to enter positions. Looks to be ripening again.
Volume: 46.537M Avg Volume: 39.472M
BUY POINT: $128.75 Volume=45M Target=$148.00 Stop=$125.31
POSITION: APV AF - Jan. $130c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aapl.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 08/21/2007
HRS (Harris Corp.--$57.43; -0.64; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hrs.html
EARNINGS: 8-7-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Another solid stocks showing a quick double bottom and now forming a handle on low volume as it works laterally at the early August peak on that second leg to the double bottom. Excellent money flow is leading higher, leading HRS toward another new high.
Volume: 601.9K Avg Volume: 1.098M
BUY POINT: $59.04 Volume=1.6M Target=$67.95 Stop=$56.38
POSITION: HRS AK - Jan. $55c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hrs.html
Play Date: 08/21/2007
NVDA (Nvidia--$47.33; +2.43; optionable): Graphics chips/cards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
EARNINGS: 8-9-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A short but sweet pattern set up over the past six weeks as NVDA formed a double bottom off the 50 day EMA (42.83). Short handle, nice break higher Tuesday as it moved to a new all-time closing high. Money flow is leading higher and we are looking to move in with more positions as NVDA makes its next move higher.
Volume: 11.904M Avg Volume: 10.769M
BUY POINT: $47.75 Volume=14M Target=$54.95 Stop=$44.48
POSITION: UVA LW - De. $47.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nvda.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/20/2007
SLB (Schlumberger--$89.25; -1.45; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
EARNINGS: 7-20-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Still holding at the 50 day EMA, showing a doji at that level once more. Nice low trade and still looks set up to make the move higher. The energy sector is under pressure, but SLB continues to hold up well. To recap: Broke out in April from a 11 month base, rallying nicely up the 18 day EMA (90.23). Came close to 100 on the move and has now tested back in the selling, back to the 50 day EMA (88.12) with a quick dip to the 90 day SMA on the Thursday intraday low. Nice recovery and ready to move in as SLB continues higher on the return of above average volume.
Volume: 6.456M Avg Volume: 10.84M
BUY POINT: $91.41 Volume=12M Target=$109.00 Stop=$87.91
POSITION: SLB KS - Nov. $95c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slb.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/18/2007
ANSS (Ansys--$32.29; +0.06; optionable): Technical system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally after the gap higher last week. Low volume lateral move as it rests, setting up the next break higher. To recap: ANSS gapped out of a 15 month cup with handle base in early August on those strong earnings. It surged near 36 on the run and then in the market selling last week it made its first test, falling back toward the 18 day EMA. It bounced Thursday in the market selling, moving on strong volume. Friday it gapped higher. May come back toward 31 to fill the gap, but showing excellent strength and we will be ready to enter some positions as it continues higher.
Volume: 405.341K Avg Volume: 843.95K
BUY POINT: $32.58 Volume=865K Target=$38.95 Stop=$30.48
POSITION: QUS AF - Jan. $30c (68 delta, 99 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
Play Date: 08/18/2007
GEO (The Geo Group--$30.49; +0.39; optionable): Manages prisons, mental health facilities in US, Australia, Canada, UK, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/geo.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-8-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Continuing the bounce off the 90 day SMA, but not getting much volume this week as it does, and thus we did not move in. Money flow remains strong, just looking for some more volume so we can move in. To recap: GEO surged on its earnings just over a week back and then sold off in the market selling last week, bouncing off the 90 and 50 day EMA (28.23) Thursday and Friday on strong volume. The earnings broke GEO out from a 10 week base, sending it to a new high. The selling pushed it right back down. It has strong fundamentals growth rates and it bounced right back after the sell off to support. Money flow remains strong and we are looking for it to lead GEO back up. We are going to be ready to move in as it does.
Volume: 431.6K Avg Volume: 787.025K
BUY POINT: $30.11 Volume=1M Target=$36.22 Stop=$28.21
POSITION: GEO LF - Dec. $30c (50 delta, 258 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/geo.html
Play Date: 08/18/2007
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$35.93; +0.67; optionable): Positioning devices for government, military, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-07
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Continues the low volume pullback, still setting up for the next break higher. A strong stock and just waiting patiently for TRMB to show us the next move higher. To recap: A solid winner for us, TRMB got a bit rocky last week in the market air pockets (some would say freefalls), and it came back to the 50 day EMA (33.86) on three separate tests. Each time it rebounded sharply, however, indicating there is a lot of support for the stock. Looking for TRMB to bounce again after this test and give us a new entry point for the next upside leg.
Volume: 477.688K Avg Volume: 888.046K
BUY POINT: $36.21 Volume=1.3M Target=$41.95 Stop=$33.78
POSITION: TUH AG - Jan. $35c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trmb.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 08/15/2007
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$23.84; -0.15; optionable): Cost containment for government healthcare programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally, holding the 10 day EMA (23.66) on continued average trade. Solid money flow continues to lead. Just waiting for the next break higher to move in. To recap: HMSY broke sharply higher on its earnings, clearing a 4 month base in one sharp move. It hit 25 on the high and then started working laterally as the 10 day EMA rises to catch up with it. Nice low volume as it works laterally, and now that the 10 day is catching up with it we are looking for a break higher on volume as it continues the move.
Volume: 340.919K Avg Volume: 305.321K
BUY POINT: $24.65 Volume=444K Target=$29.45 Stop=$23.11
POSITION: QHT LX - Dec. $22.50c (67 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hmsy.html
DOWNSIDE:
Play Date: 08/20/2007
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices--$12.17; +0.07; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amd.html
EARNINGS: 7-1-07
STATUS: Put. Gapped higher but on very low volume as AMD shows another doji below the 10 day EMA (12.41). Waiting for AMD to roll over and give us the downside play. To recap: AMD remains massively weak despite the recovery earlier of the semiconductors. It fell hard from the 10 day EMA (12.46) last week, then rebounded Thursday through Monday, coming back to tap near the 10 day Monday. Showed a doji on lower, below average volume, an indication it is ready to turn back down. Looking for a further turn back down from the 10 day. Another run lower to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 13.166M Avg Volume: 29.106M
BUY POINT: $11.95 Volume=30M Target=$10.95 Stop=$12.32
POSITION: AMD VN - Oct. $12p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amd.html
Play Date: 08/18/2007
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$144.93; +0.29; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
STATUS: Put. Tried the 200 day SMA (145.58) on the high but fell back from there again on low trade. Don't like shorting a quiet market, but if the market starts back down, SPY is primed to make us some money as it does. To recap: Another downside that we are ready to reload on and take advantage of if it rolls over again. After that plunge lower last week to 137 on the low it gapped higher on the Fed action, opening just below the 200 day SMA. It tried to move through that level but it could not hold it on the close. It did hold the 10 day EMA (144.65) on the close, but that is not the key moving average here. If SP500 cannot move up through the 200 day and hold we are going to look to play it on the next downside move. A run to the initial target lands a 39%ish gain. If the financials are in full flight again at that point we will, of course, let it continue to run.
Volume: 155.799M Avg Volume: 236.373M
BUY POINT: $144.48 Volume=235M Target=$140.35 Stop=$145.72
POSITION: SFB UO - Sept. $145p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/spy.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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