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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/22/2007
ARGN (Amerigon--$19.34; +0.15; no options): Electronics for sale as OEM on cars and trucks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/argn.html
EARNINGS: 8-6-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Nice low, below average volume as ARGN works laterally in a very tight range, holding above the 10 day EMA (18.95) as it does. Nice finishing touches to its 7 week base that is setting up a break to a 6 year high. Excellent money flow is leading higher as it finishes up the base. Excellent action ready for a new high.
Volume: 161.462K Avg Volume: 291.664K
BUY POINT: $20.11 Volume=437K Target=$24.22 Stop=$18.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/argn.html
Play Date: 08/22/2007
DWSN (Dawson Geophysical--$67.24; +3.76; no options): Oil & gas service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dwsn.html
EARNINGS: 8-1-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Big surge to start the month on some strong earnings, then testing during the August market selling. That helped DWSN hold up well compared to many energy stocks. Nice tap of the 50 day EMA (60.66) and holding above it on the closes. Volume started higher Wednesday as DWSN jumped off the 18 day EMA where it made a higher low this week. Looking for some more trade as it continues this move higher.
Volume: 246.008K Avg Volume: 273.209K
BUY POINT: $68.12 Volume=410K Target=$78.35 Stop=$63.48
POSITION: - Stock (no options)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dwsn.html
Play Date: 08/22/2007
RVBD (Riverbed Technologies--$44.70; +2.80; optionable): Networking and communication equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rvbd.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Volume us jumping as RVBD does the same thing off the 90 day SMA Tuesday and through the 50 day EMA (42.55) on Wednesday. Money flow is surging higher and we are ready to move in as RVBD continues this solid break higher. A new issue in September 2006, RVBD is celebrating early for its first birthday.
Volume: 1.96M Avg Volume: 1.321M
BUY POINT: $45.11 Volume=1.4M Target=$53.95 Stop=$42.45
POSITION: UEX LI - Dec. $45c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rvbd.html
Play Date: 08/22/2007
WMS (Williams Industries--$29.17; +1.52; optionable): Gaming machines and video lottery terminals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wms.html
EARNINGS: 8-7-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. A common pattern among the strong after that late July and early August dive lower. WMS split in mid-June and then as is often the case it took a breather and formed a new base to set up the next run higher. Very nice action, rebounding after that early August sell off on very strong upside volume. That trade was higher again Wednesday as WMS broke higher off a quick 50 day EMA test that finished the right shoulder to the pattern. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and we are looking to enter WMS as it continues higher and shows the breakout move.
Volume: 782K Avg Volume: 585.664K
BUY POINT: $29.95 Volume=878K Target=$34.50 Stop=$27.95
POSITION: WUF AX - Jan. $26.63c (73 delta, 87 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wms.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/15/2007
EGOV (Nic, Inc.--$7.47; -0.02; optionable): Services for the US government to provide eGovernment services to us little old citizens
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/egov.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still a nice test after that break higher last week. Great set up for the breakaway move. To recap: A long, nicely formed 14 month cup with handle base to set up the next run higher. Nice breakout to start August, rising up off the 50 day EMA on strong volume. It is testing the past week on low, below average volume, hold the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday close as well as the July peak. Very strong in a weak market; have to like that. Looking for the volume to return as EGOV resumes the breakout move.
Volume: 189.185K Avg Volume: 232.804K
BUY POINT: On a break higher from here with strong volume (orig. $7.42) Volume=325K Target=$8.95 Stop=$7.05
POSITION: BIQ AU - Jan. $7.50c (48 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/egov.html
Play Date: 08/15/2007
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$24.16; +0.32; optionable): Cost containment for government healthcare programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice spike in volume Wednesday as HMSY shows a doji at the 10 day EMA. Looking for price to jump as has price. Very nice set up. To recap: HMSY broke sharply higher on its earnings, clearing a 4 month base in one sharp move. It hit 25 on the high and then started working laterally as the 10 day EMA rises to catch up with it. Nice low volume as it works laterally, and now that the 10 day is catching up with it we are looking for a break higher on volume as it continues the move.
Volume: 554.714K Avg Volume: 304.98K
BUY POINT: $24.65 Volume=444K Target=$29.45 Stop=$23.11
POSITION: QHT LX - Dec. $22.50c (67 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hmsy.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/20/2007
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices--$12.01; -0.16; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amd.html
EARNINGS: 7-1-07
STATUS: Put. Gapped higher to the 10 day EMA (12.33) but then rolled over on rising volume. Still looks massively weak and ready to fall after this rollover. To recap: AMD remains massively weak despite the recovery earlier of the semiconductors. It fell hard from the 10 day EMA last week, then rebounded Thursday through Monday, coming back to tap near the 10 day Monday. Showed a doji on lower, below average volume, an indication it is ready to turn back down. Looking for a further turn back down from the 10 day. Another run lower to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 26.117M Avg Volume: 28.852M
BUY POINT: $11.95 Volume=30M Target=$10.95 Stop=$12.32
POSITION: AMD VN - Oct. $12p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amd.html
Play Date: 08/21/2007
BBY (Best Buy--$44.34; +0.25; optionable): Electronics stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
EARNINGS: 9-18-07
STATUS: Put. If this was the best BBY can do in a good market bounce it is likely to head lower soon. It gapped higher Wednesday but volume was low and it stalled at the 18 day EMA. This should end the rebound and send it back down. To recap: BBY is in a steady downtrend, continuing lower and lower as it rides the moving averages. It last tested the 50 day EMA (45.51) two weeks back and failed, dropping hard once more in last week's selling. After the Thursday reversal day it has made it back up to the 10 and 18 day EMA, tapping at the 18 day EMA the past two sessions on the highs on very low volume. Looking for it to continue lower from this test of near resistance. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 3.652M Avg Volume: 7.011M
BUY POINT: $43.64 Volume=7M Target=$41.55 Stop=$44.52
POSITION: BBY VI - Oct. $45c (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bby.html
Play Date: 08/18/2007
ETFC (E Trade Financial--$15.25; -0.32; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/etfc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-25-07
STATUS: Put. Word was it is in talks with AMTD in a merger bid, and that gapped it higher on strong volume. It rolled over intraday, however, and closed just below the 10 day EMA. Not a great reaction to the news. The lack of a solid response indicates ETFC is going to head lower once more. To recap: After that big plunge lower from the 10 day EMA (15.56) starting last Monday, ETFC plunged on the worries regarding sub-prime issues. After the deep dive Thursday it gapped higher Friday on the Fed action, but it could only make it to the 10 day EMA before rolling over. The Fed is on the case so to speak, but the sub-prime issue is not gone. It will still impact those stocks involved. We are looking for ETFC to continue down from the 10 day EMA, making another run lower in its downtrend. A move to the initial target is within the last deep test lower, and it lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 28.523M Avg Volume: 13.876M
BUY POINT: New: $14.88 (orig. $14.22) Volume=20M Target=$12.54 Stop=$14.85
POSITION: EUS UF - Sept. $15p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/etfc.html
Play Date: 08/20/2007
FCX (Freeport McMoran--$79.96; +3.06; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcx.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: Put. After a major collapse last week that took FCX down to the 200 day SMA (68.42) and below on the low, it has rebounded to resistance at the 90 day SMA (80.36). Volume was lower as it rebounded though it was no shrinking violet. Some are saying it is a buy here, but it is ready for another fall before it bottoms and becomes an upside buy. Our initial target is 73 but it could easily make 70 on this decline. A move to the initial target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 13.654M Avg Volume: 10.824M
BUY POINT: $78.94 Volume=14M Target=$73.00 Stop=$80.48
POSITION: FCX VP - Oct. $80p (-43 delta))
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fcx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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