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us stock market, trading system
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 08/23/2007
FMC (FMC Corp.--$87.92; +0.67; optionable): Chemicals. Splits 2:1 on 9-14-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fmc.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: FMC has faded back to the 90 day SMA (86.16) during the market selling. It found support at that level and has worked modestly higher during the rebound, moving up to the 50 day EMA (87.81). Money flow is leading higher, and with the split coming we are looking for FMC to make the break higher. Volume jumped above average Wednesday, showing there is some accumulation ongoing.
Volume: 206.2K Avg Volume: 307.509K
BUY POINT: $89.12 Volume=355K Target=$99.95 Stop=$97.88
POSITION: FMC AR - Jan. $90c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fmc.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 08/23/2007
PLMD (Polymedica--$46.50; +1.74; optionable): Diabetes testing supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plmd.html
EARNINGS: 7-31-07
STATUS: Ascending triangle. PLMD blasted higher to start August on the heels of its strong earnings. That move took it out of a 16 month base that made a series of higher lows below a constant top at 44 to 45. Strong volume break higher then a lower volume test. Volume surged the past two sessions as PLMD rallied back from the test, moving to a new post-breakout closing high. Looking to move in as it continues higher and then again on the next test that holds. Very nice.
Volume: 560.295K Avg Volume: 294.618K
BUY POINT: $46.68 Volume=400K Target=$53.95 Stop=$44.88
POSITION: PM AI - Jan. $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/plmd.html
Play Date: 08/23/2007
TJX (TJ Max--$29.89; +0.04; optionable): Low cost department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tjx.html
EARNINGS: 8-14-07
STATUS: TJX is moving in a 10 month trading range from 26 to 30. Strong move up last week took it back up to the top of the range. It stalled there the past week, moving laterally on low volume, but stocks typically make a higher low before the breakout of a range. Thus we are watching for TJX to finally make the move and clear this resistance.
Volume: 2.806M Avg Volume: 4.371M
BUY POINT: $30.44 Volume=6.6M Target=$35.00 Stop=$29.08
POSITION: TJX AF - Jan. $30c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tjx.html
New Downside:
Play Date: 08/23/2007
BWA (Borg Warner--$82.41; -1.79; optionable): Auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bwa.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Double top. Twin peaks, one in July, one in August, and then a nasty plunge lower two weeks back that took it down near the 200 day SMA (74.86). A rebound the past week and a stall at the 90 day SMA (84.26) after bumping that level Wednesday and then turning down Thursday on a big, above average volume jump. First test of the crash down from the double top, and that means plenty of downside room here to make us money. A mot to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 634.8K Avg Volume: 433.785K
BUY POINT: $82.15 Volume=450K Target=$77.05 Stop=$83.78
POSITION: BWA VQ - Oct. $85p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bwa.html
Play Date: 08/23/2007
JNS (Janus Capital Group--$27.60; -1.18; optionable): Asset management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jns.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Put. JNS formed a 7 week head and shoulders top and broke lower two weeks back, gapping lower on strong volume. It sold below 26 and rebounded the past week, but has stalled at the 50 day EMA (28.60). Thursday JNS turned down and fell through the 90 day SMA (28) on rising, average volume. Money flow is diving lower ahead of price. A move to the target lands a 46%ish gain.
Volume: 3.248M Avg Volume: 3.255M
BUY POINT: $27.38 Volume=3.4M Target=$24.78 Stop=$28.11
POSITION: JNS VF - Oct. $30p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jns.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Nice break higher Wednesday.
BG: Fading back after the bounce higher. Stalled at the July peak.
BIDU: May form a handle here and set up a new base.
BLUD: Still fading back.
CELG: Still working on the base above the 200 day SMA
COST: Forecast mid-October. Testing the bounce, holding the 18 day EMA.
DE: Forecast late August.
FCN: No split announced but FCN continues its strong ways, testing the 10 day EMA
HRS: Forecast late August.
JEC: Bounced off support at 60, testing the move Thursday.
NOV: Announced the split and gapped higher on solid volume.
NVDA: Nice break higher this week and a modest test Thursday.
OII: Still in the nice test of the 18 day EMA
SII: Breaking higher off that double bottom but no volume yet
UA: Testing after the break higher.
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/21/2007
HRS (Harris Corp.--$58.46; -0.76; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hrs.html
EARNINGS: 8-7-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Gapped higher and then faded Thursday on low volume; no real change. Just looking for the break higher on volume to move in. To recap: Another solid stock showing a quick double bottom and now forming a handle on low volume as it works laterally at the early August peak on that second leg to the double bottom. Excellent money flow is leading higher, leading HRS toward another new high.
Volume: 569.5K Avg Volume: 1.084M
BUY POINT: $59.04 Volume=1.6M Target=$67.95 Stop=$56.38
POSITION: HRS AK - Jan. $55c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hrs.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/18/2007
ANSS (Ansys--$31.61; -0.35; optionable): Technical system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Dipped to the 10 day EMA but on very low volume. This should finish the shakeout and send ANSS back up on the breakout move. To recap: ANSS gapped out of a 15 month cup with handle base in early August on those strong earnings. It surged near 36 on the run and then in the market selling last week it made its first test, falling back toward the 18 day EMA. It bounced Thursday in the market selling, moving on strong volume. Friday it gapped higher. May come back toward 31 to fill the gap, but showing excellent strength and we will be ready to enter some positions as it continues higher.
Volume: 397.319K Avg Volume: 824.061K
BUY POINT: $32.58 Volume=865K Target=$38.95 Stop=$30.48
POSITION: QUS AF - Jan. $30c (68 delta, 99 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
Play Date: 08/22/2007
WMS (Williams Industries--$28.97; -0.20; optionable): Gaming machines and video lottery terminals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wms.html
EARNINGS: 8-7-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After that strong move higher Wednesday, WMS faded on lower trade. No change in the pattern, still poised for the breakout. To recap: A common pattern among the strong after that late July and early August dive lower. WMS split in mid-June and then as is often the case it took a breather and formed a new base to set up the next run higher. Very nice action, rebounding after that early August sell off on very strong upside volume. That trade was higher again Wednesday as WMS broke higher off a quick 50 day EMA test that finished the right shoulder to the pattern. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and we are looking to enter WMS as it continues higher and shows the breakout move.
Volume: 587.4K Avg Volume: 585.664K
BUY POINT: $29.95 Volume=878K Target=$34.50 Stop=$27.95
POSITION: WUF AX - Jan. $26.63c (73 delta, 87 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wms.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 08/15/2007
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$24.02; -0.14; optionable): Cost containment for government healthcare programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. After the big volume Wednesday, trade contracted Thursday as HMSY continued laterally along the 10 day EMA (23.80). Still set up to make the break and ready to move in as it does. To recap: HMSY broke sharply higher on its earnings, clearing a 4 month base in one sharp move. It hit 25 on the high and then started working laterally as the 10 day EMA rises to catch up with it. Nice low volume as it works laterally, and now that the 10 day is catching up with it we are looking for a break higher on volume as it continues the move.
Volume: 253.647K Avg Volume: 310.709K
BUY POINT: $24.65 Volume=444K Target=$29.45 Stop=$23.11
POSITION: QHT LX - Dec. $22.50c (67 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hmsy.html
Play Date: 08/22/2007
JKHY (Jack Henry & Assoc.--$26.43; -0.21; optionable): Data management to banks, credit unions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jkhy.html
EARNINGS: 8-21-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Low volume fade Thursday as JKHY eased back from the breakout point. Still set up well to make the break higher from a nicely formed pattern. To recap: Volume jumped Wednesday after JKHY reported strong earnings and headed toward the breakout from its 11 week base that has set up a run at JKHY's all-time high hit back in the salad days of 2001. Strong money flow is leading the way and ready for JKHY to make the break higher and make us . . . some jack (pretty weak).
Volume: 482.967K Avg Volume: 693.096K
BUY POINT: $27.11 Volume=1M Target=$31.95 Stop=$25.32
POSITION: JKQ LE - Dec. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jkhy.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trading system
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