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us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 08/25/2007
RIMM (Research in Motion--$81.86; +1.40; optionable): Blackberry communication devices, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: 9-27-07
STATUS: Breakout test. After a plunge during the selling that took RIMM below its 50 day EMA, RIMM bounced right back, moving past the old high and breaking to a new one. Unlike the rest of the market, volume was not light; volume surged as RIMM jumped right back up. It peaked Wednesday and reversed, fading into the Friday open. After another lower open to end the week it rebounded to close positive. It may not test anymore. Ready to take positions as it continues higher from here. If it fades some more, all the better; we will look for a test toward the 10 day EMA (77.20) and adjust the buy point accordingly. In other words, if it fades toward the 10 day EMA and then starts to bounce we will move in as it starts higher.
Volume: 13.084M Avg Volume: 25M
BUY POINT: $82.55 Volume=30M Target=$99.00 Stop=$77.11
POSITION: RFY LV - Dec. 83.38c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rimm.html
Play Date: 08/25/2007
ZUMZ (Zumiez--$46.42; +0.56; optionable): Teen apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zumz.html
EARNINGS: 8-22-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher ahead of its strong earnings, and that capped the week long run off of the 50 day EMA test during the market selling. That gave our current position a nice boost and we took some of that gain. It faded modestly after the earnings, then tested lower Friday near the 10 day EMA at 440 before rebounding positive. Like that it has already filled the gap. That sets up more upside and we are looking to use the start of the next leg of the run to pick up more positions.
Volume: 711.269K Avg Volume: 811.937K
BUY POINT: $46.88 Volume=1M Target=$53.95 Stop=$45.05
POSITION: QUY BI - Feb. $45c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zumz.html
New leader play: New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 08/25/2007
CMED (China Medical Technologies--$33.06; +0.90; optionable): Chinese medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmed.html
EARNINGS: 8-28-07
STATUS: Double bottom. CMED came under fire in the selling, but twice it held at the 90 day SMA (28.65) on the intraday low and bounced right back up. It showed some great volume Wednesday as it gapped up through the 50 day EMA (30.90). That took it past the June closing high and thus is breaking up the head and shoulders that was trying to form. Stepping back and looking big picture, the past 6 weeks is a handle to a much larger 19 month cup with handle base. Money flow is huge and moving higher. Some more volume similar to the Wednesday upside indicates a buy.
Volume: 456.208K Avg Volume: 777.918K
BUY POINT: $34.05 Volume=1.2M Target=$41.95 Stop=$31.89
POSITION: QCY AF - Jan. $30c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmed.html
New Downside:
Play Date: 08/25/2007
CAT (Caterpillar--$76.32; +1.15; optionable): Heavy machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cat.html
EARNINGS: 10-19-07
STATUS: Put. Hate to bet against CAT, but the pattern is saying it is time to do so. It formed a 9 week head and shoulders and broke lower on a jump in volume two Wednesdays back. It rebounded with the market and has risen to the 10 and 18 day EMA, reaching toward the 18 day (76.65) on the Thursday and Friday highs. Volume faded as it rose, indicating no real backing for the move. Looking for it to roll over from this test and looking to move in as it breaks back through the 10 day EMA (75.64) to the downside. Need to see a bit more volume to show the sellers are again outrunning the buyers. A move to the target lands a 43%ish gain ($118/contract).
Volume: 3.483M Avg Volume: 7.081M
BUY POINT: $75.42 Volume=7M Target=$72.21 Stop=$76.75
POSITION: CAT VO - Oct. $75p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cat.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Another nice upside move Friday.
BG: Trying to break through the July peak. On some more volume it is a new buy.
BIDU: Forming a handle here and set up a new base.
BLUD: Nice high volume bounce off the 18 day EMA.
CELG: Still working on the base above the 200 day SMA
COST: Forecast mid-October. Testing the bounce, holding the 18 day EMA but this pattern is getting a toppy look to it.
DE: Forecast late August.
FCN: No split announced but FCN continues its strong ways, testing the 10 day EMA
HRS: Forecast late August. It is time and HRS looks good.
JEC: Bounced off support at 60, trying to set up a higher low to move off of.
OII: Moving higher off the test of the 18 day EMA
SII: Still no volume as it approaches the mid-August peak
UA: Testing after the break higher.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/25/2007
BIDU (Baidu.com--$203.21; 0.00; optionable): Chinese internet search
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bidu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-25-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volatile as can be the past 6 weeks, but that is what a double bottom pattern is. After a tremendous May to early July move that made is a lot of money, BIDU turned volatile, fading to earnings, gapping higher on the results, then fading back again in the market selling. Fade? Breakneck plunge is more like it. It recovered, and to end last week it started a lateral, modestly lower fade on lower trade, starting to form the handle. Nice set up for another screaming run higher though it likely will take another couple of sessions to finish handle. Whether it does or takes off from here we are going to be ready to move in. This is one of the horses of the tech sector, and even as the overall market struggles it has moved well. Volatile as hell, so keep the Pepto at hand, but when it runs it knows the way.
Volume: 3.096M Avg Volume: 3.513M
BUY POINT: $205.55 Volume=4M Target=$249.90 Stop=$196.22
POSITION: BDU LB - Dec. $210c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bidu.html
Play Date: 08/25/2007
IBM (International Business Machines--$113.24; +1.79; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-18-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Looking for IBM to makes u some more money here as it bounces nicely off its 50 day EMA (110) after remaining very calm in the recent selling. Yes it sold down hard on that Thursday panic, but it rebounded form that intraday selling to close with just a modest loss. IBM makes periodic tests of the 50 day EMA and then rebounds and makes its next move where it runs about 15 points. Looking to move in as IBM continues higher and shows us another nice run.
Volume: 7.059M Avg Volume: 8.978M
BUY POINT: $114.11 Volume=10M Target=$130.00 Stop=$109.89
POSITION: IBM AC - Jan. $115c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ibm.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 08/25/2007
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$104.00; +2.70; optionable): GPS devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
EARNINGS: 8-1-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. GRMN has already given us a good gain and we took some of it. Now it is setting up to give us another buy point with this three week reverse head and shoulders pattern. Super solid, very strong.
Volume: 2.139M Avg Volume: 2.977M
BUY POINT: $105.22 Volume=4M Target=$120.95 Stop=$99.88
POSITION: RZJ AA - Jan. $105c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/grmn.html
Play Date: 08/25/2007
UA (Under Armour--$64.99; +0.01; optionable): Sportswear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ua.html
EARNINGS: 7/31/07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Another stock that is a strong leader in earnings growth and also used the recent selling to set up a positive upside pattern, ready to break it higher again. Excellent surge off of the 50 day EMA after the selling, the dip forming the head in the short 4 week base. It came back to end the week, tapping a the 10 day EMA (64.45) on the low and bouncing positive on Friday. Money flow is huge and we are looking forward to it leading the stock higher once more. Ready to move higher off this near support and give us that next entry point.
Volume: 313.6K Avg Volume: 1.492M
BUY POINT: $67.24 Volume=2.2M Target=$76.95 Stop=$64.22
POSITION: UA AM - Jan. $65c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ua.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/18/2007
ANSS (Ansys--$32.32; +0.71; optionable): Technical system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Bounced back up Friday after that dip to the 10 day EMA (31.52) Thursday. Set up nicely, just needs to add volume. To recap: ANSS gapped out of a 15 month cup with handle base in early August on those strong earnings. It surged near 36 on the run and then in the market selling last week it made its first test, falling back toward the 18 day EMA. It bounced Thursday in the market selling, moving on strong volume. Friday it gapped higher. May come back toward 31 to fill the gap, but showing excellent strength and we will be ready to enter some positions as it continues higher.
Volume: 344.098K Avg Volume: 813.006K
BUY POINT: $32.88 Volume=865K Target=$38.95 Stop=$30.48
POSITION: QUS AF - Jan. $30c (68 delta, 99 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 08/15/2007
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$23.98; -0.04; optionable): Cost containment for government healthcare programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. The range is tightening up over the 10 day EMA on low volume. The set of the base is just about over and a new break higher is coming. To recap: HMSY broke sharply higher on its earnings, clearing a 4 month base in one sharp move. It hit 25 on the high and then started working laterally as the 10 day EMA rises to catch up with it. Nice low volume as it works laterally, and now that the 10 day is catching up with it we are looking for a break higher on volume as it continues the move.
Volume: 159.633K Avg Volume: 319.782K
BUY POINT: $24.65 Volume=444K Target=$29.45 Stop=$23.11
POSITION: QHT LX - Dec. $22.50c (67 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hmsy.html
Play Date: 08/22/2007
JKHY (Jack Henry & Assoc.--$26.65; +0.22; optionable): Data management to banks, credit unions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jkhy.html
EARNINGS: 8-21-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Strong volume and price gain Wednesday, then volume faded to close the week. JKHY held its ground, however, showing its strength. Not bad action and looking for it to break higher on a return of volume after this quick rest. To recap: Volume jumped Wednesday after JKHY reported strong earnings and headed toward the breakout from its 11 week base that has set up a run at JKHY's all-time high hit back in the salad days of 2001. Strong money flow is leading the way and ready for JKHY to make the break higher and make us . . . some jack (pretty weak).
Volume: 482.967K Avg Volume: 693.096K
BUY POINT: $27.11 Volume=1M Target=$31.95 Stop=$25.32
POSITION: JKQ LE - Dec. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jkhy.html
CONTINUING DOWNSIDE PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/23/2007
BWA (Borg Warner--$82.84; +0.43; optionable): Auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bwa.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Double top. After the higher volume reversal at the 90 day SMA (84.35) Thursday, BWA posted a modest, very low volume bounce to test. Still weak and still looking for it to roll over here and give us a nice downside run. To recap: Twin peaks, one in July, one in August, and then a nasty plunge lower two weeks back that took it down near the 200 day SMA (74.86). A rebound the past week and a stall at the 90 day SMA after bumping that level Wednesday and then turning down Thursday on a big, above average volume jump. First test of the crash down from the double top, and that means plenty of downside room here to make us money. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 258.7K Avg Volume: 428.683K
BUY POINT: $82.15 Volume=450K Target=$77.05 Stop=$83.78
POSITION: BWA VQ - Oct. $85p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bwa.html
Play Date: 08/23/2007
JNS (Janus Capital Group--$28.07; +0.47; optionable): Asset management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jns.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Put. Bounced back Friday to tap at the 10 day EMA (28.17) on the high. Low volume so no real strength. High volume selling Thursday as it broke lower, so looking for the turn here to make our move in. To recap: JNS formed a 7 week head and shoulders top and broke lower two weeks back, gapping lower on strong volume. It sold below 26 and rebounded the past week, but has stalled at the 50 day EMA (28.58). Thursday JNS turned down and fell through the 90 day SMA on rising, average volume. Money flow is diving lower ahead of price. A move to the target lands a 46%ish gain.
Volume: 2.21M Avg Volume: 3.26M
BUY POINT: $27.38 Volume=3.4M Target=$24.78 Stop=$28.11
POSITION: JNS VF - Oct. $30p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jns.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
top stock pick
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