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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/27/2007
AMX (America Movil--$60.24; -0.44; optionable): Wireless telecom, Latin America
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Some volatile up and down action but that is the nature of a double bottom: some patterns grind 'em out, the double bottom scares them out. This one the second leg in August was low; lower than most. Indeed AMX is about to morph this into a reverse head and shoulders, but either way the pattern is setting up. After an excellent run up the 10 and 18 day EMA through early July it needed a rest, and now it is getting that. Good rebound on strong volume off the 200 day SMA in the mid-August selling. Now it has moved up to just below the 50 day SMA (59.37), sliding laterally Monday on very low trade. May take a few sessions of this lateral movement to set up the break, but that is what it looks to be doing.
Volume: 2.738M Avg Volume: 6.067M
BUY POINT: $61.25 Volume=9M Target=$70.45 Stop=$59.11
POSITION: AMX AL - Jan. $60c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amx.html
Play Date: 08/27/2007
MORN (Morningstar--$62.94; -0.89; optionable): Asset management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/morn.html
EARNINGS: 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. MORN exploded higher to start August, clearing a 14 week cup base, rallying to 67 on the high. It tested the 18 day EMA after that surge, then gapped higher just over a week back. That was the initial play we were looking to get in on but the gap did not give us a good entry. It has worked laterally the past week as the 10 day EMA (62.02) rose to meet it. The 10 day EMA is now with it as MORN tapped it on the low and bounced. Looking for MORN to resume its breakout move; showed some good average volume Monday, and looking for some more.
Volume: 173.795K Avg Volume: 160.129K
BUY POINT: $64.68 Volume=240K Target=$74.50 Stop=$61.96
POSITION: QMR LM - Dec. $65c (51 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/morn.html
Play Date: 08/27/2007
MOS (Mosaic Company--$40.62; -0.41; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mos.html
EARNINGS: 10-9-07
STATUS: Double bottom. A pair of lows over the 90 day SMA (36.03) set up the 6 week pattern as MOS consolidates a strong March to June run. It is working laterally, more or less, this past week though it did bounce up nicely on Friday. May take a session or two to finish the lateral move to set up the break higher, but MOS is looking good as the chemical stocks recover from the market selling.
Volume: 1.513M Avg Volume: 2.73M
BUY POINT: $41.65 Volume=4M Target=$49.95 Stop=$38.88
POSITION: MOS AH - Jan. $40c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mos.html
Play Date: 08/27/2007
OIH (Oil Services Hldrs Trust--$173.50; -2.10; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oih.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Similar to the AMX pattern, OIH is setting up above the 50 day EMA (172.24) on the low and under the 50 day SMA (175.80) on the high. Looking for it to slide laterally along the 50 day EMA for two to three more sessions to form more of a handle and then make the break higher. OIH surged April to July and it needed a base. This is giving it that base to set back up and renew the move. Oil prices are lower, but oil service companies look very good. If it shows us the move with the associated volume it is a buy.
Volume: 5.338M Avg Volume: 9.864M
BUY POINT: $174.92 Volume=11M Target=$190.00 Stop=$172.11
POSITION: ODL AO - Jan. $175c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oih.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/25/2007
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$101.93; -2.07; optionable): GPS devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
EARNINGS: 8-1-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Took the day off Monday on low volume as the 10 day EMA (99.48) rushes up to meet it. Just going to be patient and let it show us the move. To recap: GRMN has already given us a good gain and we took some of it. Now it is setting up to give us another buy point with this three week reverse head and shoulders pattern. Super solid, very strong.
Volume: 2.164M Avg Volume: 2.977M
BUY POINT: $105.22 Volume=4M Target=$120.95 Stop=$99.88
POSITION: RZJ AA - Jan. $105c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/grmn.html
Play Date: 08/15/2007
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$23.93; -0.05; optionable): Cost containment for government healthcare programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice tight doji at the 10 day EMA (23.85) as volume edged higher though still below average. Looking for that volume to continue higher as HMSY makes the break higher. To recap: To recap: HMSY broke sharply higher on its earnings, clearing a 4 month base in one sharp move. It hit 25 on the high and then started working laterally as the 10 day EMA rises to catch up with it. Nice low volume as it works laterally, and now that the 10 day is catching up with it we are looking for a break higher on volume as it continues the move.
Volume: 256.468K Avg Volume: 319.782K
BUY POINT: $24.65 Volume=444K Target=$29.45 Stop=$23.11
POSITION: QHT LX - Dec. $22.50c (67 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hmsy.html
Play Date: 08/23/2007
RADS (Radian Systems--$15.31; -0.19; optionable): Site management software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rads.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Another doji at the 10 day EMA (15.33) as volume moves up to average. Still looking for RADS to make the break higher off of this very nice test of a strong breakout move. To recap: Nice low volume test of the 10 day EMA following a strong breakout. A nice 17 month double bottom with handle set up the move and it surged on strong volume. Excellent money flow is rallying higher ahead of price still, and we are looking to pick up RADS as it comes off the 10 day EMA test.
Volume: 303.003K Avg Volume: 310.863K
BUY POINT: $15.81 Volume=400K Target=$18.95 Stop=$14.95
POSITION: QRC AC - Jan. $15c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rads.html
Play Date: 08/25/2007
RIMM (Research in Motion--$81.11; -0.75; optionable): Blackberry communication devices, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: 9-27-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Low, low volume as RIMM works laterally, still consolidating that break higher last week. Nice easy action on low trade shows no sellers, just resting. To recap: After a plunge during the selling that took RIMM below its 50 day EMA, RIMM bounced right back, moving past the old high and breaking to a new one. Unlike the rest of the market, volume was not light; volume surged as RIMM jumped right back up. It peaked Wednesday and reversed, fading into the Friday open. After another lower open to end the week it rebounded to close positive. It may not test anymore. Ready to take positions as it continues higher from here. If it fades some more, all the better; we will look for a test toward the 10 day EMA and adjust the buy point accordingly. In other words, if it fades toward the 10 day EMA and then starts to bounce we will move in as it starts higher.
Volume: 5.867M Avg Volume: 23.954M
BUY POINT: $82.55 Volume=30M Target=$99.00 Stop=$77.11
POSITION: RFY LV - Dec. 83.38c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rimm.html
Play Date: 08/22/2007
RVBD (Riverbed Technologies--$42.78; -1.16; optionable): Networking and communication equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rvbd.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Fell back to the 50 day EMA (42.64) as it continues to test the move on very low volume. Set up very nicely to make the break higher after that strong surge last week. To recap: Volume jumped as RVBD does the same thing off the 90 day SMA Tuesday and through the 50 day EMA on Wednesday. Money flow is surging higher and we are ready to move in as RVBD continues this solid break higher. A new issue in September 2006, RVBD is celebrating early for its first birthday.
Volume: 454.117K Avg Volume: 1.297M
BUY POINT: $44.25 Volume=1.4M Target=$53.95 Stop=$42.24
POSITION: UEX LI - Dec. $45c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rvbd.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/23/2007
BWA (Borg Warner--$82.18; -0.66; optionable): Auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bwa.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Double top. Tapped the 10 day EMA on the high (83.50) and slid lower on low trade. Still looking for a break lower from this test, and this action continues to show it is getting ready to make the move. To recap: Twin peaks, one in July, one in August, and then a nasty plunge lower two weeks back that took it down near the 200 day SMA (74.86). A rebound the past week and a stall at the 90 day SMA after bumping that level Wednesday and then turning down Thursday on a big, above average volume jump. First test of the crash down from the double top, and that means plenty of downside room here to make us money. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 236.8K Avg Volume: 428.683K
BUY POINT: $82.15 Volume=450K Target=$77.05 Stop=$83.78
POSITION: BWA VQ - Oct. $85p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bwa.html
Play Date: 08/25/2007
CAT (Caterpillar--$76.00; -0.32; optionable): Heavy machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cat.html
EARNINGS: 10-19-07
STATUS: Put. Tombstone doji at the 18 day EMA as CAT sits on the 10 day EMA (75.71) on low volume. It is still at the July low and this near resistance, showing a lack of strength. Just waiting for the turn back down on rising volume. To recap: Hate to bet against CAT, but the pattern is saying it is time to do so. It formed a 9 week head and shoulders and broke lower on a jump in volume two Wednesdays back. It rebounded with the market and has risen to the 10 and 18 day EMA, reaching toward the 18 day on the Thursday and Friday highs. Volume faded as it rose, indicating no real backing for the move. Looking for it to roll over from this test and looking to move in as it breaks back through the 10 day EMA to the downside. Need to see a bit more volume to show the sellers are again outrunning the buyers. A move to the target lands a 43%ish gain ($118/contract).
Volume: 3.136M Avg Volume: 7.081M
BUY POINT: $75.42 Volume=7M Target=$72.21 Stop=$76.75
POSITION: CAT VO - Oct. $75p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cat.html
Play Date: 08/18/2007
ETFC (E Trade Financial--$14.99; -0.25; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/etfc.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: Put. Turning down at the 10 day EMA (15.29) though volume did not jack up as we wanted to see, coming in at the lowest of the month. Want to see some more trade as it moves lower. Nice set up.
Volume: 6.558M Avg Volume: 14.405M
BUY POINT: $14.88 Volume=20M Target=$12.54 Stop=$15.54
POSITION: EUS VF - Oct. $15p (-41 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/etfc.html
Play Date: 08/23/2007
JNS (Janus Capital Group--$27.61; -0.46; optionable): Asset management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jns.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Put. The modest bounce back Friday on lower trade after that higher volume Thursday selling looks to be fading as JNS tried higher again Monday but failed. Low volume; want to see more trade as it continues lower. To recap: JNS formed a 7 week head and shoulders top and broke lower two weeks back, gapping lower on strong volume. It sold below 26 and rebounded the past week, but has stalled at the 50 day EMA (28.54). Thursday JNS turned down and fell through the 90 day SMA on rising, average volume. Money flow is diving lower ahead of price. A move to the target lands a 46%ish gain.
Volume: 1.146M Avg Volume: 3.26M
BUY POINT: $27.38 Volume=3.4M Target=$24.78 Stop=$28.11
POSITION: JNS VF - Oct. $30p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jns.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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