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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 08/28/2007
NOV (National Oilwell--$117.58; -2.51; optionable): Oil and gas services. Splits 2:1 on 10-1-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nov.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After a nice rally off the 90 day MA NOV is taking a quick rest, catching its breath and forming a handle over the 10 day EMA (115.73) to its nice little 5 week base. After the solid trek up the 18 day EMA February to July this base is giving it the time it needs to rest and recuperate. May take a few more days to finish the base but setting up very well in a weaker market.
Volume: 2.819M Avg Volume: 3.462M
BUY POINT: $121.39 Volume=5M Target=$13.75 Stop=$116.55
POSITION: NOV KD - Nov. $120c (49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nov.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 08/28/2007
ARTC (Arthrocare--$54.41; -0.72; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/artc.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. ARTC is testing the 10 day EMA (54.41) as it makes a higher low in its 3 week consolidation of its strong late July breakout and surge to 58. An up and down test, but making higher highs as ARTC sets up for the next break higher. Low volume on this last part of the test so just looking for some pickup in trade to pick up ARTC for its next run.
Volume: 297.978K Avg Volume: 499.52K
BUY POINT: $56.25 Volume=750K Target=$64.95 Stop=$53.39
POSITION: ARU LK - Dec. $55c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/artc.html
Play Date: 08/28/2007
ATW (Atwood Oceanics--$71.42; -0.43; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atw.html
EARNINGS: 8-7-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. This is a somewhat common pattern among the stronger energy stocks: 5 to 6 week double bottoms formed over the 90 day SMA. Very nice pattern setting up over support, and after another 2 to 3 days of lateral work it will be ready to give us the breakout move.
Volume: 429.5K Avg Volume: 671.215K
BUY POINT: $72.88 Volume=1M Target=$83.95 Stop=$68.89
POSITION: ATW AN - Jan. $70c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atw.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/28/2007
XLE (Spdr Energy Sector--$66.75; -1.65; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xle.html
STATUS: Put. Volume has jumped as XLE turns lower from the 50 day EMA (68.47) and something of a double top from early August and last week. Looking for a run down to some support at 64. The 200 day SMA is at 63, and if it wants to go there, we will let it. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 19.639M Avg Volume: 24.091M
BUY POINT: $66.55 Volume=2.4M Target=$64.00 Stop=$67.91
POSITION: XBT VO - Oct. $67p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xle.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Tough session.
BG: Testing the 50 day SMA. Needs to hold here and make the bounce.
BIDU: Forming a handle here and set up a new base.
BLUD: Holding the 18 day EMA on low volume.
CELG: Still working on the base above the 50 day EMA
COST: Forecast mid-October. Whoa. Ugly drop on high volume.
DE: Forecast late August.
FCN: Undercutting the 10 day EMA down to the 18 day EMA.
HRS: Forecast late August. No split for HRS yet and it is heading lower for now.
JEC: Trying to hold the 50 day EMA.
OII: Turning back down, gapping lower and closing below the 18 day EMA.
SII: Still no volume but now forming a handle to its base.
UA: Testing after the break higher.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/28/2007
GPRO (Gen Probe--$62.01; -0.43; optionable): Medical devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpro.html
EARNINGS: 8-1-07
STATUS: Test breakout. GPRO broke higher in late June, clearing a big 13 month double bottom base. Nice rally up to 67 and then it needed a test. It fell back to the 50 day EMA (60.55) on the market selling and has rebounded of course. It spent the past week moving laterally over the 18 day EMA (62.08) on low volume and in a very tight range. Nice higher low that is setting up the next break higher to continue the breakout move. Like the nice, orderly action as GPRO ignores the market selling as it sets up for its move higher.
Volume: 301.972K Avg Volume: 576.116K
BUY POINT: $63.39 Volume=750K Target=$72.95 Stop=$61.55
POSITION: PSU AL - Jan. $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gpro.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/25/2007
IBM (International Business Machines--$112.00; -1.44; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-18-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Fading back to the 18 day EMA (111.72) on continued below average volume. Looks like it is still setting up for the breakout to us, using the market pullback to better set up the move higher off of near support. Solid. To recap: Looking for IBM to makes u some more money here as it bounces nicely off its 50 day EMA (110) after remaining very calm in the recent selling. Yes it sold down hard on that Thursday panic, but it rebounded form that intraday selling to close with just a modest loss. IBM makes periodic tests of the 50 day EMA and then rebounds and makes its next move where it runs about 15 points. Looking to move in as IBM continues higher and shows us another nice run.
Volume: 6.007M Avg Volume: 8.945M
BUY POINT: $114.11 Volume=10M Target=$130.00 Stop=$109.89
POSITION: IBM AC - Jan. $115c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ibm.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/27/2007
GMCR (Green Mountain Coffee Roasters--$34.21; -0.23; optionable): Java, Joe
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gmcr.html
EARNINGS: 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Very nice tight doji at the 18 day EMA Tuesday as volume spiked up to average. Very solid and ready to make the move for us. To recap: GMCR has been on a torrid run this year, making solid runs up 10 and 18 day EMA with a periodic test of the 50 day EMA (30.86). Big surge to start this month after its split and on its earnings report. It came off the 50 day EMA in the mid-August selling and is now testing the move, holding the 18 day EMA the past week, making a higher low. This is how GMCR has made its moves. Looking for a volume jump as it breaks higher off of the 18 day EMA higher low. Has a lot of pop to it.
Volume: 486.474K Avg Volume: 453.905K
BUY POINT: $35.78 Volume=680K Target=$42.95 Stop=$33.65
POSITION: QGM LG - Dec. $35c (51 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gmcr.html
Play Date: 08/25/2007
RIMM (Research in Motion--$77.20; -3.91; optionable): Blackberry communication devices, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: 9-27-07
STATUS: Breakout test. More fade to the move, falling through the 10 day EMA (77.78) and toward the 18 day EMA (76.03). Volume remains below average. Just letting it make its test and adjusted the buy point to accommodate this test. Looking for it to hold near the 18 day EMA and then try the move back up. To recap: After a plunge during the selling that took RIMM below its 50 day EMA, RIMM bounced right back, moving past the old high and breaking to a new one. Unlike the rest of the market, volume was not light; volume surged as RIMM jumped right back up. It peaked Wednesday and reversed, fading into the Friday open. After another lower open to end the week it rebounded to close positive. It may not test anymore. Ready to take positions as it continues higher from here.
Volume: 12.581M Avg Volume: 23.215M
BUY POINT: $78.88 Volume=30M Target=$99.00 Stop=$74.88
POSITION: RFY LV - Dec. 83.38c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rimm.html
Play Date: 08/25/2007
ZUMZ (Zumiez--$44.72; -0.47; optionable): Teen apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zumz.html
EARNINGS: 8-22-07
STATUS: Breakout test. A further test, tapping at the 10 day EMA (44.20) on the low on lower, below average volume. Setting up all the better for the next run higher. Just looking for some volume with the price move back up. Nice. To recap: Gapped higher ahead of its strong earnings, and that capped the week long run off of the 50 day EMA test during the market selling. That gave our current position a nice boost and we took some of that gain. It faded modestly after the earnings, then tested lower Friday near the 10 day EMA at 440 before rebounding positive. Like that it has already filled the gap. That sets up more upside and we are looking to use the start of the next leg of the run to pick up more positions. Moved the buy point lower to accommodate the further dip.
Volume: 332.652K Avg Volume: 785.239K
BUY POINT: $45.68 Volume=1M Target=$53.95 Stop=$43.88
POSITION: QUY BI - Feb. $45c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zumz.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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