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us stock market, trading system
Begin part 2 of 3
CONTINUING PLAYS TABLE
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LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAPL 08/21 PreAnn 136.25 +2.17 131.45 149.95 51M 45M 132.31
Current. Excellent volume as AAPL continued its move higher off the 50 day EMA as it breaks higher from a short 5 week reverse head and shoulders pattern ahead of its 9-5-07 new products announcement. No issues with this action.
AMX 08/27 Rev HS 58.96 -0.22 61.25 70.45 4.8M 9M 59.11
Buy Not Hit. Still in the pattern, still working laterally below the 50 day EMA (59.28). Just being patient and waiting for the break higher.
ANSS 08/18 Test BO 32.95 +0.64 32.88 38.95 642K 865K 20.78
Buy Not Issued. May be ripe now, running higher on rising volume and holding the move into the close. If it can continue
higher on continued improved volume it is a buy.
ARTC 08/28 Test BO 55.73 +0.11 56.25 64.95 297K 750K 53.39
Buy Not Hit. Ran up close to the buy point then backed off as volume remained low and unable to hold a break higher for
now. Still solid, still ready to continue taht strong
breakout move from July.
ATW 08/28 DB hdl 74.14 +0.51 72.88 83.95 440K 1M 68.89
Buy Not Issued. Gapped lower then rebounded for a gain, but once again volume lagged well below average. Without the trade
we have not been willing to buy into it.
BIDU 08/25 DB hdl 205.66 -0.87 210.50 254.90 2.6M 4M 203.88
Current. Nice easy lateral move on low volume after that break
higher Monday. Still very good action as it continues
the handle work on its 7 week base.
BIIB 08/02 Test BO 64.59 +1.73 58.08 66.75 4.1M 8.5M 62.48
Target Hit. Took part of the gain as BIIB broke higher from its
10 day EMA once more. Nice 92% option gain and some
solid 10.88% stock gain. Letting the rest of the position
push higher if it will.
BLUD 08/16 Cup hdl 33.02 +0.24 34.04 39.95 754K 1.4M 32.12
Current. Volume bounced up again as BLUD bounced from support
at 32 again. Clsoed well off the intraday high, but
still looks solid for a break higher from here once again.
CELG 07/28 Rev HS 63.87 +2.07 61.10 69.95 5.8M 5.5M 61.98
Current. Volume surged and so did price as CELG cleared the
late July peake near 63. Beautiful move as the base
looks to be finally complete.
CMED 08/25 Dbl btm 34.76 +0.16 34.17 42.45 775K 1.2M 31.88
Current. Gapped higher but then closed flat on average trade.
Not worrying this move as it is performing quite well.
CMED 07/21 Test BO 34.76 +0.16 35.26 41.95 775K 896K 33.54
Current.
CPHD 08/16 Test BO 18.68 +0.25 18.72 22.48 539K 1.2M 17.38
Current. Still on top of the 10 day EMA, still moving laterally
but looks very ready to make the break to the new 6
year high & to challenge its all-time high.
CROX 08/15 Test 50 58.18 -0.96 53.97 65.95 3.6M 7.5M 54.22
Current. Very tight range on very light volume as CROX continues
to hold just over teh 10 day EMA as it works laterally.
Still like the look for another break higher from here.
CSCO 07/24 FlyPlat 31.43 +0.43 30.18 36.25 56M 70M 30.88
Current. Solid bump in volume up to average as CSCO puts in
a solid move though cclosing off the high and giving
back half the gains. Solid continuation of the advance.
CTRP 07/11 Test BO 40.67 -1.11 42.88 49.98 417K 425K 39.45
Current. After a nice rebound from the Tuesday selling, CTRP
turned right back down Thursday & closed at the 10
day EMA. Low trade and still looks ready to bounce
once more, but it needs to show us the move from here.
CTRP 05/26 Test BO 40.67 -1.11 38.19 44.98 417K 425K 39.45
Current.
CVX 08/29 DB hdl 87.19 +0.49 87.68 99.95 7.8M 18M 84.11
Buy Not Hit. Another lateral move on low trade as CVX sets up a
nice handle to break higher from. It has based and
now it is ready to make the break higher.
DE 08/18 Dbl btm 131.90 +0.45 129.88 149.95 2.1M 4M 127.89
Current. Announced its split Wednesday after the close and rallied up to 134 on the Thursday high. That roughly matched the July peak and it faded back for a modest gain. No volume. Good pattern and set to move, but not much reaction to the split.
DLTR 08/29 Rev HS 40.46 -0.51 41.31 47.55 1.3M 2M 39.94
Buy Not Hit. Rallied to test the 90 day MA (41.21) again and then
faded to close negative. Still set up to move but have
to see that break over the 90 day on strong trade yet
again.
DO 08/29 DB hdl 102.53 -0.65 103.55 118.95 2.5M 3M 99.90
Buy Not Hit. Tested back to the 50 day SMA after that nice Wednesday break higher. Nice. It is already making the interim
test for us before hitting our buy point. Now we look
for the break higher on volume to give us the entry point.
EXM 08/21 Dbl btm 39.00 +1.48 40.05 47.50 545K 775K 37.25
Buy Not Issued. Tapped at the new buy point Thursday on some nice above average volume. It is ready to make the breakout from
the handle and give us the buy point.
FMC 08/23 PreSplt 88.13 -0.34 89.12 99.95 156K 355K 97.88
Buy Not Issued. Tried to run but again hit the 50 day SMA (89.17) and faded back. Still a nice set up. Still has to show
us something, however.
FTI 08/07 PreSplt 92.45 +0.85 94.35 108.45 436K 800K 89.98
Current.
GMCR 08/27 Test BO 34.50 +0.07 35.78 42.95 434K 680K 33.65
Buy Not Hit. Still at the 10 day EMA, still showing the elevated
voluem for the past three sessions. Very nice set up
for a new break high is brewing.
GPRO 08/28 PreAnn 63.23 +0.44 63.39 72.95 236K 750K 61.55
Buy Not Issued. Bounced off the 18 day EMA test but volume was still very low. Looks good but need to see that trade pick
up as it makes the move through the buy point.
GRMN 08/25 Rev HS 102.54 +1.58 105.22 120.95 3.8M 4M 99.88
Buy Not Hit. Good recover off the Tuesday test of the 18 day EMA.
Really like how the volume jumped up on this Thursday
recovery. Still looking for a new breakout to buy some
more positions.
GRMN 08/15 Test 18 102.54 +1.58 90.35 111.95 3.8M 4.2M 100.88
Current.
HMSY 08/15 Test BO 23.72 +0.14 24.21 29.45 137K 444K 21.11
Buy Not Issued. Has tested the 18 day EMA and has held. Now looking for the break higher on some solid trade to start taking
positions.
HPQ 07/26 Test BO 48.44 +0.02 48.11 53.95 11M 15M 47.98
Current. Tapped at 49 on the high, the level it needs to clear
as that is the July peak, and a potential left shoulder
to a potential H&S pattern. Thus it needs to clear
that level on strong trade.
HSIC 08/06 Cup hdl 58.05 +0.12 57.21 63.95 298K 450K 58.65
Still working laterally over the 18 day EMA in a tightening
range. Volume picked up some Thursday and looking for
that as a precursor to a new breakout.
IBM 08/25 Test 50 115.37 +0.80 114.77 130.00 7.8M 10M 111.88
Current. Gapped lower but then recovered for a positive close
on rising though below avg volume. Still very solid
and like the action.
ISRG 08/13 Test BO 217.06 +1.48 202.89 243.00 936K 1.2M 214.87
Current. Jumped up to 220 but as with most stocks it could not
hold all of the move. Like the lower open and higher
close and you have to like the rising volume as ISRG
outperforms the rest of the market.
MON 08/07 Test 50 68.85 +1.08 67.60 75.95 4.1M 5M 67.77
Current. Nice volume, rising close to average as MON broke past
last weeks highs and is now bearing down on 70 to 71
that marks the top of the pattern and, of course, a
new all-time high.
MORN 08/27 Test BO 63.80 +1.30 64.68 74.50 132K 240K 61.96
Buy Not Hit. May be ready to finally rise and face the morning.
Good price action Thursday and volume has perked up a bit.
NOV 08/28 DB hdl 123.34 +0.58 122.75 138.45 2.5M 5M 117.98
Current. Gapped lower as energy started the session weaker,
but then the sector recovered and NOV posted a modest
gain. Still solid but would like to see more trade.
If it keeps moving higher, however, we don't care.
NVDA 08/21 Dbl btm 48.68 -0.28 48.45 55.45 7.8M 14M 46.78
Current. Was running once more but after hitting 50ish (the
Monday high) it faded to flat on the close. Not taking
much issue with the action as NVDA continues to show
excellent relative strength and good price/volume action.
NVDA 07/25 Test 18 48.68 -0.28 47.47 56.75 7.8M 12M 46.78
Current.
OIH 08/27 Rev HS 175.55 -0.92 174.92 190.00 4.9M 11M 172.11
Buy Not Issued. As with most of the oil sector this index started weaker but then came back. What this does is set us a better
buy after that nice bounce higher Wednesday.
PAYX 08/04 Rev HS 44.27 -0.19 43.62 49.95 3M 3.6M 44.88
Current. Good recovery Wednesday and then a nice tight doji
Thursday. A good test for PAYX and it is primed to
start back up once more.
RIMM 08/25 Test BO 82.87 +1.05 79.76 99.95 22M 30M 77.45
Current. Solid volume Thursday as RIMM surged up to 85 but then
faded, losing 2/3 of its gain. Hard to argue with the
move; it is volatile as the March wind so no complaints
here.
SII 08/18 PreAnn 65.25 +1.19 60.12 69.45 2.8M 4.5M 57.94
Buy Not Issued. Crosses 65 on some decent trade. A buy as it continues past this resistance level.
SLB 08/20 Test 50 95.00 -0.72 92.72 110.00 6.5M 12M 92.89
Current. After the strong Wednesday session SLB took the day
off on some lower volume. Looking for a quick pick
up to the move that started Wednesday given it has
already tested ahead of the Wednesday break higher.
SNDK 07/28 Test 18 54.66 +1.12 57.30 66.75 9.5M 12M 54.95
Current. Volume was u, the best in two weeks, as SNDK continued
the Wednesday bounce off the 50 day EMA. Very promising.
TJX 08/23 Asc Bse 29.87 -0.36 30.61 35.00 3M 6.6M 29.22
Current. The Wednesday bounce did not hold well as TJX faded.
Still in solid shape to move higher but we sure want
it to show us something soon.
UA 08/25 Rev HS 63.88 -0.85 67.24 76.95 995K 2.2M 64.22
Buy Not Hit.
UA 08/16 Test BO 63.88 -0.85 63.76 76.95 995K 1.8M 63.88
Current. Faded back from the Wednesday recovery move, but held
the 18 day EMA on the low, showing a nice tight doji
at that level. Time to show its moves.
VIP 08/29 DB hdl 24.73 +1.57 23.91 28.75 7.5M 4M 22.24
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher on the earnings and then it tested as we wanted. Then we got greedy and decided to wait and get another test. It didn't. Bad move. Now we are looking for a test back from this initial gap higher to give us a buy.
WYNN 08/16 Test BO 121.06 +0.31 120.89 139.95 1.2M 2.9M 118.89
Started lower, closed modestly higher. If it continues
from here we are going to take a few positions and
then see what kind of streak WYNN is on.
XLE 08/28 Rev HS 68.92 -0.04 69.65 77.50 17M 2.4M 66.65
Buy Not Hit. Started lower, tapped right at the Wednesday high intraday and faded to flat. Still looking for a new upside break in this pattern as we flipped the play given the renewed energy strength. Need to see strong volume on the break higher.
ZUMZ 08/25 Test BO 47.97 +1.28 45.92 53.95 859K 1M 45.89
Current. Volume picked up speed, coming in well above average
as ZUMZ zoomed higher once more, just eclipsing the
high hit on the earnings release.
ZUMZ 08/15 Test 50 47.97 +1.28 42.17 50.75 859K 1M 45.89
Current.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AMD 08/20 Put 12.42 +0.12 11.85 10.78 30M 30M 11.89
Current. Rallied sharply on rising, average volume but then turned over to close just below the 18 day EMA. We will see if this is a reversal to the downside that continues the downtrend or just a bit of pre-Dell earnings jitters late in the session.
BWA 08/23 Dbl Top 83.20 -0.42 81.78 77.05 238K 450K 82.95
Buy Not Issued. Reached up to the 90 day MA on the high and closed
just over the 10 day EMA. Still looks toppy, and on
a move lower on some rising trade we are looking to
play the downside on this one.
CAT 08/25 Put 74.66 -0.38 74.65 71.44 3.6M 7M 75.55
Current. Rallied but after tapping toward the 18 day EMA (76.03)
and then faded to close lower. Still looks like a stall
out on this stock and ready for another run lower toward
70ish.
DIA 08/20 Put 132.57 -0.17 131.88 127.55 13M 20M 132.65
Buy Not Issued. Bounced again, testing up toward the 50 day EMA on
the peak and then fading to close flat. Still making
lower highs so we are still watching in the event it
breaks down again. Good set up to make us money if it does.
ETFC 08/18 Put 14.77 +0.22 14.88 12.54 7.3M 20M 15.54
Buy Not Issued. Tapped the 10 day EMA (14.97) on the high after holding 14 this week. This is where it needs to make the break lower. It certainly looks ready to do so. Need to see volume pick up from this low trade as it does; that shows us the sellers are back.
FRPT 08/14 Put 17.14 +0.02 15.74 13.55 965K 3.2M 15.64
Current. Gapped lower but fought back, ending up flat after
trading on both sides of the ledger. This is where
it either fails and we ride it lower to the target
or it holds and tries to bounce again and we sell it.
GRA 08/04 Put 21.71 -0.27 18.94 17.00 438K 1.2M 20.55
Current. Tapped the 50 day EMA on the high and faded for a modest
loss, holding the 10 day EMA (21.57). This is wehre
we need to see it fall and close below the 10 day on
some rising trade.
JNS 08/23 Put 26.19 -1.21 27.38 24.78 2.4M 3.4M 28.11
Buy Not Issued. Still not enough option volume to really get into this one and ride it lower so dropping it.
SPY 08/18 Put 146.15 -0.39 145.37 140.22 192M 235M 145.55
Current. Gapped lower then rallied up to wave at the 50 day
EMA and then it reversed. Managed to hold above the
200 day MA (145.87). How it holds here is key as it
tries, w/this last move, to set a reverse H&S.
End part 2 of 3
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trading system
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