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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 08/30/2007
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$54.55; +1.05; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. VSEA broke higher in early August, clearing a 12 week cup with handle base. It dumped down to the 50 day EMA (47.13) in the market selling and then bounced right back up, surpassing the breakout high. It has tested that move this week, tapping at the 10 day EMA (52.54) on the low and starting the bounce Thursday. Ready to move in as this strong leaders continues higher.
Volume: 1.369M Avg Volume: 2.032M
BUY POINT: $55.57 Volume=2.5M Target=$66.75 Stop=$52.44
POSITION: UES AK - Jan. $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsea.html
New buy point on current post-split position:
Play Date: 08/30/2007
CROX (Crocs, Inc.--$58.18; -0.96; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crox.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Working laterally on low volume, holding at the 10 day EMA (57.21) on the lows as its range tightens. Showed a doji Thursday, setting up for the break higher. Want to see the volume climbing as CROX makes the next break higher.
Volume: 3.591M Avg Volume: 7.284M
BUY POINT: $60.11 Volume=7.5M Target=$72.00 Stop=$57.05
POSITION: CQJ LL - Dec. $60c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crox.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 08/30/2007
MTL (Mechel Steel Group--$42.33; +2.00; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtl.html
EARNINGS: 7-11-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Very strong volume Thursday as MTL broke higher in its 7 week base, clearing some resistance at 42 in the process. Nice surge, good volume, ready to move in as it continues higher toward the July peak at 47.93 and onto a new high.
Volume: 984.3K Avg Volume: 493.52K
BUY POINT: $42.55 Volume=525K Target=$50.95 Stop=$39.97
POSITION: MTL AH - Jan. $40c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mtl.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Tough session Tuesday, great recovery Wednesday and Thursday. New products on 9-5 and maybe a split announcement as well.
BG: Making that bounce off the 50 day EMA.
BIDU: Still working on the handle.
BLUD: Nice action at the 18 day EMA
CELG: Sweet and strong break higher.
COST: Forecast mid-October. Trying to pick the pieces back up
CVX: Still forming the nice handle.
DE: Announced the split Wednesday after the close!
DO: Whether it announces or not, DO is setting up a great handle.
FCN: Nice recovery as FCN tries to set up for the next move higher.
GPRO: Looks ready to make the move.
HRS: Forecast late August. This is as late as you can get.
IBM: Good break higher this week.
JEC: Nice lateral move and picking up some volume
OII: Checked up and held the 18 day EMA, working laterally in a good range now.
SII: Broke higher as it got a bit more volume.
UA: Testing at the 18 day EMA.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/30/2007
COP (ConocoPhillips--$81.29; -0.48; optionable): Oil and gas major
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cop.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: Cup. Excellent rounded cup bottom has formed. Looking for some volume as it makes the break higher from this 7 week pattern. Very nice set up to make the run higher toward the prior high just over 90.
Volume: 9.393M Avg Volume: 12.833M
BUY POINT: $82.35 Volume=15M Target=$94.95 Stop=$79.77
POSITION: COP AP - Jan. $80c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cop.html
Play Date: 08/30/2007
HRS (Harris Corp.--$59.22; +0.48; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hrs.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume moved up to average Thursday as HRS recovered from the Tuesday dip and has gone about setting up again for a new breakout from its 6 week base. Like how HRS came right back to keep the base that formed at the 50 day EMA (56.14) in good shape. Strong money flow is leading higher and with this volume bump it looks as if price is ready to follow.
Volume: 890.8K Avg Volume: 1.038M
BUY POINT: $59.74 Volume=1.4M Target=$68.95 Stop=$57.54
POSITION: HRS AL - Jan. $60c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hrs.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/30/2007
CVX (Chevron-Texaco--$87.19; +0.49; optionable): Major integrated oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvx.html
EARNINGS: 7-27-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice 7 week base has formed after the good run from April to early July. After such a run a stock needs a rest and this short base is setting up a nice launch pad for its next run higher.
Volume: 7.826M Avg Volume: 11.166M
BUY POINT: $87.68 Volume=18M Target=$99.95 Stop=$84.11
POSITION: CVX LQ - Dec. $85c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cvx.html
Play Date: 08/29/2007
DO (Diamond Offshore--$102.53; -0.65; optionable): Offshore oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Took the day off, fading back to tap the 50 day EMA (101.32) after that strong surge Wednesday. Looking to pick up some more positions as DO continues higher off of this test. Very nice. To recap: Volume started up on Wednesday as DO broke higher over the handle of its short but very nice 6 week base. Broke higher out of a big base in June and rallied to 115. In the energy correction it sold back to form the current base, and is now breaking higher for a new run higher.
Volume: 2.511M Avg Volume: 2.789M
BUY POINT: $103.55 Volume=3M Target=$118.95 Stop=$99.90
POSITION: DO LA - Dec. $105c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/do.html
Play Date: 08/25/2007
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$102.54; +1.58; optionable): GPS devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
EARNINGS: 8-1-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Stronger, above average volume Thursday as GRMN comes off the 18 day EMA test and approaches the prior highs. Looking for that volume to continue as GRMN breaks through the buy point.
Volume: 3.776M Avg Volume: 2.99M
BUY POINT: $105.22 Volume=4M Target=$120.95 Stop=$99.88
POSITION: RZJ AA - Jan. $105c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/grmn.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/18/2007
ANSS (Ansys--$32.95; +0.64; optionable): Technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume started higher Thursday as ANSS continued its jump off the 18 day EMA, clearing the August closing highs. Looking to move in as ANSS continues higher, stretching its breakout from its 15 month base.
Volume: 642.476K Avg Volume: 777.054K
BUY POINT: $32.88 Volume=865K Target=$38.95 Stop=$20.78
POSITION: QUS AF - Jan. $30c (68 delta, 99 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
Play Date: 08/28/2007
ARTC (Arthrocare--$55.73; +0.11; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/artc.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Tried to make the move but not enough volume to drive it Thursday. Still looking for some volume as it makes the move. To recap: ARTC is testing the 10 day EMA (54.83) as it makes a higher low in its 3 week consolidation of its strong late July breakout and surge to 58. An up and down test, but making higher highs as ARTC sets up for the next break higher. Low volume on this last part of the test so just looking for some pickup in trade to pick up ARTC for its next run.
Volume: 296.784K Avg Volume: 485.265K
BUY POINT: $56.25 Volume=750K Target=$64.95 Stop=$53.39
POSITION: ARU LK - Dec. $55c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/artc.html
Play Date: 08/27/2007
GMCR (Green Mountain Coffee Roasters--$34.50; +0.07; optionable): Java, Joe
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gmcr.html
EARNINGS: 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume is up the past three sessions as GMCR holds at the 18 day EMA (33.94) in a very tight range. Still looks good for the move higher, and like the increase in volume as it holds in a tight range, crouching to make the move. To recap: GMCR has been on a torrid run this year, making solid runs up 10 and 18 day EMA with a periodic test of the 50 day EMA (31.26). Big surge to start this month after its split and on its earnings report. It came off the 50 day EMA in the mid-August selling and is now testing the move, holding the 18 day EMA the past week, making a higher low. This is how GMCR has made its moves. Looking for a volume jump as it breaks higher off of the 18 day EMA higher low. Has a lot of pop to it.
Volume: 434.371K Avg Volume: 457.598K
BUY POINT: $35.78 Volume=680K Target=$42.95 Stop=$33.65
POSITION: QGM LG - Dec. $35c (51 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gmcr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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