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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/01/2007
DWSN (Dawson Geophysical--$67.86; -0.29; no options): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dwsn.html
EARNINGS: Ascending base. DWSN was one of the energy stocks that weathered the selling in the market and in the energy sector quiet well. Indeed, during August it made a couple of intraday taps at the 50 day EMA (62.45) but that was the extent of it. It has used the selling to consolidate and set up the current 9 week base, and it is trading just below the high, building pressure for the gusher. Looking to move in as DWSN makes the break. Top earnings to go along with its excellent pattern.
STATUS:
Volume: 131.617K Avg Volume: 266.14K
BUY POINT: $70.11 Volume=410K Target=$82.95 Stop=$65.87
POSITION: - Stock (no options)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dwsn.html
Play Date: 09/01/2007
MM (Metal Management--$46.91; +2.44; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mm.html
EARNINGS: 8-2-07
STATUS: Cup. MM is starting move up the right side 4 month up base, accelerating out of the bottom of the pattern with a nice volume surge Friday that pushed it through its 90 day SMA (45.96). Metals are coming back to life and MM is a solid leader in the field and it is set up to make a strong run higher.
Volume: 408.7K Avg Volume: 323.959K
BUY POINT: $47.25 Volume=400K Target=$54.45 Stop=$45.88
POSITION: MM AM - Jan. $45c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mm.html
Play Date: 09/01/2007
POT (Potash--$88.56; +2.95; optionable): Fertilizer components
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pot.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Ascending base. POT had its ups and downs during the recent selling, suffering a sharp sell off in mid-August, but it caught itself at the 90 day MA and rebounded. The result is a 7 week ascending base where POT is working off its excess while holding its gains. Obviously that is a sign of strong stock. POT finished the week gapping higher toward the base high near 90. It may test some more before making the breakout, but with the new money coming back to the market next week we want to be ready to get in on POT as it makes its break.
Volume: 1.973M Avg Volume: 3.284M
BUY POINT: $89.11 Volume=4.9M Target=$106.95 Stop=$85.05
POSITION: PYP LR - Dec. $90c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pot.html
Play Date: 09/01/2007
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$35.31; -0.02; optionable): Positioning devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
EARNINGS: 7-31-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After surging on its earnings report to start August, TRMB was not immune to the selling, but it used it to its advantage, fading back to test the 50 day EMA at 34.53 and give itself a nice rest to set up its next move higher. It spent the end of last week in a tight range just over the 50 day as volume moved up close to average. With money flow still moving higher even as TRMB tests, we are looking for TRMB to start to lead once more and give us a good bounce off the 50 day as an entry point.
Volume: 749.119K Avg Volume: 874.163K
BUY POINT: $36.22 Volume=1.2M Target=$41.95 Stop=$34.44
POSITION: TUH AG - Jan. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/trmb.html
Play Date: 09/01/2007
VDSI (Vasco Data Security--$31.32; +0.77; optionable): Data security products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vdsi.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Ascending base. VDSI has enjoyed a strong run and it is setting up to deliver another upside move that we are going to ride for what it is worth. After a nice rise into early August it too went through the selling, but after one quick run down to the 50 day EMA (27.31) and bounced right back up. It closed out the month with a weeklong move below the high on the run at 32. Looking for VDSI to provide a nice break higher as the next breakout is likely to be a strong one.
Volume: 716.625K Avg Volume: 976.023K
BUY POINT: $32.22 Volume=1.4M Target=$38.75 Stop=$29.96
POSITION: QFN LF - Dec. $30c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vdsi.html
Play Date: 09/01/2007
WMS (Williams Industries--$29.44; +0.50; optionable): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wms.html
EARNINGS: 8-7-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Looking at WMS again as it continues to set up its 8 week base, working on the right shoulder on quiet volume. As it moves laterally, money flow is accelerating sharply. With WMS perched near an all-time high we are looking for a breakout to send it higher.
Volume: 336.2K Avg Volume: 589.734K
BUY POINT: $29.95 Volume=878K Target=$34.50 Stop=$27.95
POSITION: WUF AX - Jan. $26.63c (73 delta, 87 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wms.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/28/2007
ARTC (Arthrocare--$56.02; +0.29; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/artc.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher Friday, looking as if it wanted to make the next break higher, but volume was nowhere to be found. Still solid; just needs to add volume. To recap: ARTC is testing the 10 day EMA (54.63) as it makes a higher low in its 3 week consolidation of its strong late July breakout and surge to 58. An up and down test, but making higher highs as ARTC sets up for the next break higher. Low volume on this last part of the test so just looking for some pickup in trade to pick up ARTC for its next run.
Volume: 153.524K Avg Volume: 486.278K
BUY POINT: $56.25 Volume=750K Target=$64.95 Stop=$53.39
POSITION: ARU LK - Dec. $55c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/artc.html
Play Date: 08/29/2007
CIEN (Ciena--$37.88; +0.68; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cien.html
EARNINGS: 8-30-07 before the open.
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume was solid to end the week, and CIEN is set up very well to give us the breakout move as it comes off a test of the 50 day EMA and making a higher low in the pattern. To recap: Nice strong, above average volume Wednesday as CIEN broke higher in its 6 week base. You can call it a double bottom with handle (an intraday dip in early August matched later in the month) or a reverse H&S, but either way it is a nice pattern to consolidate the late May breakout from a larger 14 month base. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and CIEN is ready to follow it. Looking for CIEN to move higher on the earnings. If it gaps we will buy some on the test and then see how it shakes out from there and plan our next buy point.
Volume: 5.556M Avg Volume: 3.86M
BUY POINT: $38.75 Volume=5M Target=$44.75 Stop=$36.25
POSITION: EUQ AG - Jan. $35c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cien.html
Play Date: 08/25/2007
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$101.83; -0.71; optionable): GPS devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
EARNINGS: 8-1-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still is bumping up at the top of its short base, gapping higher Friday but then finishing modestly lower. Still set up well to make the next break higher. To recap: GRMN has already given us a good gain and we took some of it. Now it is setting up to give us another buy point with this three week reverse head and shoulders pattern. Super solid, very strong.
Volume: 4.572M Avg Volume: 3.029M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $104.35; breakout: $105.22 Volume=4M Target=$120.95 Stop=$99.88
POSITION: RZJ AA - Jan. $105c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/grmn.html
Play Date: 08/22/2007
RVBD (Riverbed Technologies--$44.40; +0.15; optionable): Networking and communication equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rvbd.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. This pattern has morphed into something of a cup with handle given the weeklong lateral move over the 50 day EMA (42.86) on some very low volume. Like this action a lot and this looks like the quiet before the breakout. To recap: Volume jumped as RVBD does the same thing off the 90 day SMA Tuesday and through the 50 day EMA on Wednesday. Money flow is surging higher and we are ready to move in as RVBD continues this solid break higher. A new issue in September 2006, RVBD is celebrating early for its first birthday.
Volume: 636.448K Avg Volume: 1.223M
BUY POINT: New: $45.22 (orig. $44.25) Volume=1.4M Target=$53.95 Stop=$42.24
POSITION: UEX LI - Dec. $45c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rvbd.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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