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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
New Pre-Split Pay:
Play Date: 09/01/2007
MTW (Manitowoc--$79.49; +1.90; optionable): Farm and construction machinery. Spits 2-1 on 9/11/07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtw.html
EARNINGS: 10-31-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A good volume and price surge Thursday and a gap higher Friday put MTW in excellent position to make a nice break higher. Excellent price base the past 6 weeks during the selling has given MTW the chance to blow off the froth and set the foundation for its next run higher. Top notch earnings growth to go along with the pattern.
Volume: 517.2K Avg Volume: 1M
BUY POINT: $80.05 Volume=1.5M Target=$92.00 Stop=$77.04
POSITION: MTW LP - Dec. $80c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mtw.html
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 09/01/2007
ESRX (Express Scripts--$54.75; -0.02; optionable): Mail order prescriptions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. ESRX tried the breakout from its 7 week base on Friday, but there was no real volume to push it and it closed flat. Despite that aborted attempt ESRX is still set up very well to make a new breakout after this nice base perched just below an all-time high.
Volume: 1.572M Avg Volume: 2.601M
BUY POINT: $55.38 Volume=3.9M Target=$63.95 Stop=$52.77
POSITION: XTQ AK - Jan. $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esrx.html
Play Date: 09/01/2007
POT (Potash--$88.56; +2.95; optionable): Fertilizer components
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pot.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Ascending base. POT had its ups and downs during the recent selling, suffering a sharp sell off in mid-August, but it caught itself at the 90 day MA and rebounded. The result is a 7 week ascending base where POT is working off its excess while holding its gains. Obviously that is a sign of strong stock. POT finished the week gapping higher toward the base high near 90. It may test some more before making the breakout, but with the new money coming back to the market next week we want to be ready to get in on POT as it makes its break.
Volume: 1.973M Avg Volume: 3.284M
BUY POINT: $89.11 Volume=4.9M Target=$106.95 Stop=$85.05
POSITION: PYP LR - Dec. $90c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pot.html
Play Date: 09/01/2007
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$35.31; -0.02; optionable): Positioning devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
EARNINGS: 7-31-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After surging on its earnings report to start August, TRMB was not immune to the selling, but it used it to its advantage, fading back to test the 50 day EMA at 34.53 and give itself a nice rest to set up its next move higher. It spent the end of last week in a tight range just over the 50 day as volume moved up close to average. With money flow still moving higher even as TRMB tests, we are looking for TRMB to start to lead once more and give us a good bounce off the 50 day as an entry point.
Volume: 749.119K Avg Volume: 874.163K
BUY POINT: $36.22 Volume=1.2M Target=$41.95 Stop=$34.44
POSITION: TUH AG - Jan. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trmb.html
Play Date: 09/01/2007
WMS (Williams Industries--$29.44; +0.50; optionable): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wms.html
EARNINGS: 8-7-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Looking at WMS again as it continues to set up its 8 week base, working on the right shoulder on quiet volume. As it moves laterally, money flow is accelerating sharply. With WMS perched near an all-time high we are looking for a breakout to send it higher.
Volume: 336.2K Avg Volume: 589.734K
BUY POINT: $29.95 Volume=878K Target=$34.50 Stop=$27.95
POSITION: WUF AX - Jan. $26.63c (73 delta, 87 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wms.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: New products on 9-5 and maybe a split announcement as well.
BG: Gapped higher Friday after the solid Thursday move.
BIDU: Still working on the handle.
BLUD: Still in great shape to make the break higher
CELG: Sweet and strong break higher continues
COST: Forecast mid-October. Still working on putting the base back together.
CVX: Gapped higher Friday
DE: Announced the split Wednesday after the close!
DO: Whether it announces or not, DO is making the run higher
FCN: Setting up well for the next move higher.
GPRO: Needs a bit more volume to propel the breakout.
HRS: No split announcement but a nice breakout move.
IBM: Good break higher last week.
JEC: Working laterally as it tries to set up another break higher
OII: Moving higher with the sector after testing the 18 day EMA
SII: Continues its break higher.
UA: Still testing at the 18 day EMA.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 09/01/2007
MM (Metal Management--$46.91; +2.44; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mm.html
EARNINGS: 8-2-07
STATUS: Cup. MM is starting move up the right side 4 month up base, accelerating out of the bottom of the pattern with a nice volume surge Friday that pushed it through its 90 day SMA (45.96). Metals are coming back to life and MM is a solid leader in the field and it is set up to make a strong run higher.
Volume: 408.7K Avg Volume: 323.959K
BUY POINT: $47.25 Volume=400K Target=$54.45 Stop=$45.88
POSITION: MM AM - Jan. $45c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mm.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/30/2007
COP (ConocoPhillips--$81.89; +0.60; optionable): Oil and gas major
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cop.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: Cup. Gapped higher Friday but gave much of the gain back. Still set up well to move higher out of this nicely formed bottom. Ust needs a bit more trade on the upside move. To recap: Excellent rounded cup bottom has formed. Looking for some volume as it makes the break higher from this 7 week pattern. Very nice set up to make the run higher toward the prior high just over 90.
Volume: 8.859M Avg Volume: 12.833M
BUY POINT: $82.35 Volume=15M Target=$94.95 Stop=$79.77
POSITION: COP AP - Jan. $80c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cop.html
Play Date: 08/25/2007
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$101.83; -0.71; optionable): GPS devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
EARNINGS: 8-1-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still is bumping up at the top of its short base, gapping higher Friday but then finishing modestly lower. Still set up well to make the next break higher. To recap: GRMN has already given us a good gain and we took some of it. Now it is setting up to give us another buy point with this three week reverse head and shoulders pattern. Super solid, very strong.
Volume: 4.572M Avg Volume: 3.029M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $104.35; breakout: $105.22 Volume=4M Target=$120.95 Stop=$99.88
POSITION: RZJ AA - Jan. $105c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/grmn.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/28/2007
ARTC (Arthrocare--$56.02; +0.29; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/artc.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher Friday, looking as if it wanted to make the next break higher, but volume was nowhere to be found. Still solid; just needs to add volume. To recap: ARTC is testing the 10 day EMA (54.63) as it makes a higher low in its 3 week consolidation of its strong late July breakout and surge to 58. An up and down test, but making higher highs as ARTC sets up for the next break higher. Low volume on this last part of the test so just looking for some pickup in trade to pick up ARTC for its next run.
Volume: 153.524K Avg Volume: 486.278K
BUY POINT: $56.25 Volume=750K Target=$64.95 Stop=$53.39
POSITION: ARU LK - Dec. $55c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/artc.html
Play Date: 08/30/2007
CROX (Crocs, Inc.--$59.04; +0.86; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crox.html
EARNINGS: 7-26-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Very nice, tight lateral move to end last week as CROX rides along the 10 day EMA and sets up the break higher. Very solid and just waiting for the next high volume price move to enter.
Volume: 2.909M Avg Volume: 7.183M
BUY POINT: $60.11 Volume=7.5M Target=$72.00 Stop=$57.05
POSITION: CQJ LL - Dec. $60c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crox.html
Play Date: 08/27/2007
GMCR (Green Mountain Coffee Roasters--$34.07; -0.43; optionable): Java, Joe
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gmcr.html
EARNINGS: 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Well, still waiting for GMCR to perk up and give us the buy. It continues its move along the 18 day EMA (33.95) in a very tight price range. Volume kicked up Wednesday, and we will see if that leads to a break higher this week. To recap: GMCR has been on a torrid run this year, making solid runs up 10 and 18 day EMA with a periodic test of the 50 day EMA (31.26). Big surge to start this month after its split and on its earnings report. It came off the 50 day EMA in the mid-August selling and is now testing the move, holding the 18 day EMA the past week, making a higher low. This is how GMCR has made its moves. Looking for a volume jump as it breaks higher off of the 18 day EMA higher low. Has a lot of pop to it.
Volume: 298.269K Avg Volume: 461.389K
BUY POINT: $35.78 Volume=680K Target=$42.95 Stop=$33.65
POSITION: QGM LG - Dec. $35c (51 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gmcr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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