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world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
New Pre-Split Play: New buy point on a current position
Play Date: 09/08/2007
DE (Deere & Co.--$135.86; -0.93; optionable): Farm machinery, Gators, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/de.html
EARNINGS: 11-21-07
STATUS: Test breakout. DE gave us a split announcement and it was a ball of fire the past couple of weeks before needing a test to end last week. Excellent breakout from a 6 week cup with handle base on the split news, rallying to 40 on the high. It faded back to end the week, gapping lower Friday but then holding the 10 day EMA and bouncing on rising, average volume to post a modest loss on the session. Excellent strength. Looking to buy into the continued move up off of this test as the Deere continue to run.
Volume: 2.765M Avg Volume: 2.719M
BUY POINT: $136.89 Volume=4M Target=$157.50 Stop=$133.48
POSITION: DE AG - Jan. $135c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/de.html
New Post-Split Play: New buy point on a current position
Play Date: 09/08/2007
MON (Monsanto--$69.90; -0.84; optionable): Ag chemicals, hybrids
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: Late September
STATUS: Breakout test. Great action from MON as it tests the new breakout, tapping at the 10 day EMA (69.08) on the Friday low and rebounding for a rather modest loss. Nice tight doji on the session has set MON for the next move higher post-breakout. Nice 7 week double bottom and now this leader in its sector looks ready to put in some more strong moves after this new base and breakout test.
Volume: 3.268M Avg Volume: 4.164M
BUY POINT: $70.85 Volume=4.5M Target=$81.48 Stop=$68.77
POSITION: MON AN - Jan. $70c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mon.html
New Leaders:
Play Date: 09/08/2007
BCSI (Blue Coat Systems--$76.38; +1.68; optionable): Network, PC security
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcsi.html
EARNINGS: 8-22-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. BCSI made us a ton of money on its last run, gapping up in late April from a 6 week base and surging higher on strong trade. It started to come back and we closed out our positions, but now it has faded to near support at the 18 day EMA (72.60) and bounced off that level on Friday, posting a nice gain. It stalled at the 10 day EMA (76.53), however, as it tried to move on through. Still looks very strong and we are looking to move in as it breaks higher through the 10 day on some strong volume.
Volume: 1.795M Avg Volume: 1.006M
BUY POINT: $77.11 Volume=1.8M Target=$92.75 Stop=$72.48
POSITION: IYU AP - Jan. $80c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcsi.html
Play Date: 09/08/2007
PDE (Pride International--$37.00; -0.04; optionable): Oil and gas drilling, exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pde.html
EARNINGS: 8-2-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice action to end the week, working laterally Thursday and Friday on low volume after an excellent break higher to start the month. That completed a 5 week cup base that formed a reverse head and shoulders at the bottom (seeing a lot of reverse H&S in the market, a good sign for gains ahead). Indeed, the move higher last week was the breakout from that pattern and now it is moving to the second stage, the cup with handle. May take a couple more days to complete the lateral move, but we are going to be ready when it makes the next move higher and shows us the next breakout.
Volume: 2.021M Avg Volume: 2.625M
BUY POINT: $37.31 Volume=3.4M Target=$42.95 Stop=$35.89
POSITION: PDE AG - Jan. $35c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pde.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Tentative 10-17-07
BG: Forecast 10-17-07 or 10-206-07
BHP: Forecast late November
BIDU: Tentative 10-30-07
BLUD: Forecast 9-28-07
CELG: Forecast 10-25-07
COP: Potential on 10-24-07
CVX: Forecast 10-24-07
DO: Forecast 10-22-07 or 10-26-07
FCN: Forecast 10-10-07
FLIR: Forecast 10-25-07
GPRO: Forecast tentatively 10-31-07, Halloween; trick or treat?
HRS: Forecast 10-24 or 10-26-07
IBM: Forecast 10-16-07
JEC: Forecast 11-6-07
MM: Forecast 10-16-07
OII: Forecast 10-30-07
SII: Forecast 10-22 or 10-23-07
UA: Forecast 10-30-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 09/08/2007
CNQ (Canadian Natural Resources--$68.72; -0.93; optionable): Oil and gas exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnq.html
EARNINGS: 11-1-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Friday CNQ was down, but on very low volume as it tested the 50 day SMA (67.80) on the low and rebounded, showing a doji on the candlestick chart. This is good action as it forms the handle to its 7 week base, the last part of the base before the breakout where the sellers are shaken out. Like how it used the 50 day EMA as support for the base as it forms up for another breakout just below an all-time high.
Volume: 813.7K Avg Volume: 1.788M
BUY POINT: $70.38 Volume=2.4M Target=$81.45 Stop=$67.95
POSITION: CNQ AN - Jan. $70c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cnq.html
New buy points on current positions:
Play Date: 09/08/2007
BIDU (Baidu.com--$213.64; -6.51; optionable): Chinese internet search
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bidu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-25-07
STATUS: Test breakout. BIDU was down Friday, but it also tapped the 10 day EMA on the low and bounced as it faded on low, below average volume. It broke higher on excellent trade early in the week and thus we are viewing this pullback as a new opportunity to buy into BIDU.
Volume: 3.537M Avg Volume: 3.722M
BUY POINT: $214.55 Volume=5.5M Target=$254.90 Stop=$210.15
POSITION: BDU LD - Dec. $220c (49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bidu.html
Play Date: 09/08/2007
DO (Diamond Offshore--$108.04; +0.16; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-26-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong surge to start last week and then a lateral move to close it out, tapping at the 10 day EMA (104.50) on the Friday low then reversing to post a modest gain. Excellent relative strength in a weak market, and looking to move in with more positions as DO makes a new breakout from its newly formed cup with handle base.
Volume: 1.585M Avg Volume: 2.789M
BUY POINT: $109.11 Volume=4M Target=$124.95 Stop=$105.11
POSITION: DO AB - Jan. $110c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/do.html
Play Date: 09/08/2007
SLB (Schlumberger--$97.47; -0.14; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-20-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice breakout last week took SLB out of its 6 week base and up to 100. It found resistance at the 100 barrier and bounced down. Friday it sold with the market, but held support at 95 and then rebounded to close flat. Good relative strength in a weak market, and looking to move into more positions as SLB continues this rebound off the test of near support.
Volume: 7.66M Avg Volume: 10.548M
BUY POINT: $98.24 Volume=12M Target=$112.95 Stop=$94.88
POSITION: SDB AT - Jan. $100c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slb.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/30/2007
COP (ConocoPhillips--$82.81; -0.82; optionable): Oil and gas major
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cop.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: Cup. Nice tight doji Friday as COP continued the work on what is now a handle to its base. Holding up well and ready to make the breakout this week. To recap: Nicely formed 7 week cup base that used the 90 day SMA (78.78) on the low as support. This is the first base since the mid-May breakout from a long 19 month trading range. It has plenty of basing behind it to provide a great foundation for a new run higher, and this is just the first base after that break higher. Looking for volume to increase as COP makes the break higher. It will likely form a handle at some point, but this is a nicely formed base giving us a good entry point.
Volume: 8.734M Avg Volume: 12.753M
BUY POINT: $83.95 Volume=15M Target=$96.50 Stop=$81.11
POSITION: COP AP - Jan. $80c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cop.html
Play Date: 09/04/2007
FLIR (Flir Systems--$48.72; +0.27; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Gapped lower Friday but held the 50 day EMA (47.40) on the low and rebounded to close positive. Nice double test of the 50 day and FLIR is ready to show the next break higher. To recap: FLIR made us some money in its earlier 2007 run, and during some choppy times during the market ups and downs in July and August, it managed to hold together. It formed the current 8 week base, using the 50 day EMA (47.25) to make higher lows. It bounced off that level last week and is taking a breather at the 10 day EMA before breaking higher once more. Money flow is running higher ahead of price as it rests, and it is ready to head higher and follow the money.
Volume: 575.035K Avg Volume: 845.607K
BUY POINT: $50.15 Volume=1.2M Target=$59.95 Stop=$47.65
POSITION: FFQ AJ - Jan. $50c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flir.html
Play Date: 09/01/2007
MM (Metal Management--$46.70; +0.03; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mm.html
EARNINGS: 8-2-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another metal with excellent action, gapping lower Friday but bouncing off the 10 day EMA to close flat. Great volume surge as it rallied back. MM is locked and loaded for the breakout move. To recap: MM is working on a nice little handle to an 8 week base that is part of a larger 14 week pattern. Strong run Q4 2006 and through May, then this nicely formed base to set the foundation for the next breakout and run higher. Good surge last week and Tuesday took it over the 90 day SMA (45.90) where it has held and worked laterally since. Money flow is soaring. MM looks ready to lead once more; just need another high volume move to get it going.
Volume: 374.1K Avg Volume: 325.505K
BUY POINT: $47.45 Volume=400K Target=$54.45 Stop=$45.88
POSITION: MM AM - Jan. $45c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mm.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 09/06/2007
ANST (Ansoft--$30.64; +0.18; optionable): Technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anst.html
EARNINGS: 8-2-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Solid price move Friday, just no volume to go along with it. If it can pick up some trade this week as the move continues it is a buy. To recap: A strong runner from 2005 to early 2007, ANST needed a break and after peaking in May it fell into the current 4 month base. Solid and strong volume move off of the August low brought ANST back above the 200 day SMA (29.63) where it then moved laterally for the past three weeks, forming a nice tight handle to the base. Thursday it started higher though volume is still lagging. Looks good for the breakout; just need to see some more trade. Excellent base and plenty of room to run upside.
Volume: 181.79K Avg Volume: 305.555K
BUY POINT: $30.68 Volume=450K Target=$35.35 Stop=$29.44
POSITION: UZD AF - Jan. $30c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anst.html
Play Date: 09/04/2007
NE (Noble Corp.--$50.52; -0.40; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ne.html
EARNINGS: 7-18-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Gapped lower Friday but held the 50 day SMA and cut its losses on some very low volume. That continues the work in the pattern and leaves NE in excellent shape to show us the breakout move. To recap: Making a nice test at the 50 day EMA (48.84) as NE bases to consolidate the strong April through July run. Looking very nice here at the 50 day as it digests the split from last week. That sometimes takes a bit to work through, but really like the pattern NE has put together.
Volume: 2.725M Avg Volume: 6.097M
BUY POINT: $50.69 Volume=6M Target=$58.45 Stop=$48.65
POSITION: NE AJ - Jan. $50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ne.html
Play Date: 09/01/2007
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$35.73; -0.34; optionable): Positioning devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
EARNINGS: 7-31-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Excellent action with a Friday doji as TRMB held its ground at the 18 day EMA on low volume. Still set up well to give us the next run higher as this test looks just about completed. To recap: After surging on its earnings report to start August, TRMB was not immune to the selling, but it used it to its advantage, fading back to test the 50 day EMA at 34.53 and give itself a nice rest to set up its next move higher. It spent the end of last week in a tight range just over the 50 day as volume moved up close to average. With money flow still moving higher even as TRMB tests, we are looking for TRMB to start to lead once more and give us a good bounce off the 50 day as an entry point.
Volume: 421.126K Avg Volume: 840.108K
BUY POINT: $36.22 Volume=1.2M Target=$41.95 Stop=$34.44
POSITION: TUH AG - Jan. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trmb.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/06/2007
FCX (Freeport McMoran--$90.18; -1.52; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-25-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Excellent action Friday, fading just modestly as the market burned, holding easily above the 50 day SMA (88.09) that is acting as support for this lateral move. Looks set to make the break as the metals know the real story regarding world and US economic activity. To recap: After a month and a half of basing, metals are firming up for another run higher. FCX made a strong run May to July after the breakout from a 12 month base and this is a test of that run. Volume has picked up as it has recovered, approaching average Thursday. Looks ready to resume its run and we are ready to move in as it continues higher, clearing the neckline in its base.
Volume: 12.077M Avg Volume: 10.688M
BUY POINT: $92.15 Volume=12M Target=$107.00 Stop=$87.88
POSITION: FCX AS - Jan. $95c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fcx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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