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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 09/11/2007
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$37.62; +0.81; optionable): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
EARNINGS: 7-18-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Came back to the 10 day EMA (36.79) Monday to form a short handle to its 7 week base that formed after it ran to a new all-time high, setting up the next break higher and run upside. A solid stock that used the selling to rest and relax, setting up for the next strong run higher. Strong money flow is moving up ahead of price. Tuesday volume surged back above average as APH bounced off the 10 day; looks ready to enter as it continues higher.
Volume: 1.426M Avg Volume: 937.703K
BUY POINT: $37.89 Volume=1.4M Target=$43.95 Stop=$36.65
POSITION: APH AG - Jan. $35c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aph.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Tentative 10-17-07
ATW: Started higher on strong volume
BG: Forecast 10-17-07 or 10-206-07
BHP: Forecast late November
BIDU: Tentative 10-30-07
BLUD: Forecast 9-28-07
CELG: Forecast 10-25-07
CNQ: Excellent break higher
COP: Potential on 10-24-07
CVX: Forecast 10-24-07
DO: Forecast 10-22-07 or 10-26-07
FCN: Forecast 10-10-07
FLIR: Forecast 10-25-07
GPRO: Forecast tentatively 10-31-07, Halloween; trick or treat?
HRS: Forecast 10-24 or 10-26-07
IBM: Forecast 10-16-07
JEC: Forecast 11-6-07
MM: Forecast 10-16-07
OII: Forecast 10-30-07
SII: Forecast 10-22 or 10-23-07
UA: Forecast 10-30-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 09/11/2007
DVA (Davita--$60.15; +2.48; optionable): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dva.html
EARNINGS: 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout. DVA made the break higher Tuesday on strong volume surging out of a 12 month loosely formed cup with handle pattern. Excellent strength as is starts the move. Looking to pick up some positions as it continues higher and then some more positions when it makes the test.
Volume: 1.238M Avg Volume: 785.721K
BUY POINT: $60.32 Volume=800K Target=$68.95 Stop=$58.05
POSITION: DVA AL - Jan. $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dva.html
Play Date: 09/11/2007
RIG (Transocean--$106.95; -1.36; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rig.html
EARNINGS: 10-31-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume has surged the past three sessions as it has moved laterally over the 50 day SMA (105.62) in a flat handle. Another strong stock that used the July and August selling to form a nice 6 week base. Surging money flow and surging volume; that is a winning combination for a breakout ready to happen.
Volume: 8.666M Avg Volume: 6.661M
BUY POINT: $108.88 Volume=10M Target=$124.95 Stop=$105.42
POSITION: RIG AB - Jan. $110c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rig.html
Play Date: 09/11/2007
RIO (Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce--$52.40; +2.00; optionable): Steel & iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rio.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Another strong stock that led into the July and August selling and then used the selling to form a base. Sharp, steep sell off and then a sharp, steep recovery. Definitely a scare them out type of pattern. It has now risen to the July high, forming the right handle. Looking for the volume to move up as RIO makes the break higher.
Volume: 11.166M Avg Volume: 15M
BUY POINT: $52.78 Volume=1.5M Target=$62.95 Stop=$49.75
POSITION: RIO AA - Jan. $52.50c (57 delta)) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rio.html
Play Date: 09/11/2007
SU (Suncor Energy--$91.10; +0.68; optionable): Canadian tar sands
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/su.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another strong stock that used the market selling in July and August to consolidate the run higher into that selling, forming a nice 7 week base. It came off a test of the 90 day SMA (88.76), the low in the handle, rising Tuesday on stronger though still below average volume. Looking for even better trade as it makes the breakout. I recall reading about the tar sands mining back in college in the early eighties and how impossibly difficult it was. They would go through the hardest bits they could make at the time in just a few hours. It was impossibly difficult and expensive. The project was conceived in the 1970's 'energy crisis' when prices jumped, and it died out when they fell to $9/bbl when Saudi Arabia drove all the marginal players out of business. Now that prices are hitting record highs in current dollars and the technology is vastly improved, the projects are viable once more. And people are buying the stock like crazy. Whatever works.
Volume: 1.871M Avg Volume: 2.372M
BUY POINT: $92.72 Volume=3.6M Target=$106.75 Stop=$89.32
POSITION: SU AR - Jan. $90c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/su.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 08/30/2007
COP (ConocoPhillips--$83.53; +1.34; optionable): Oil and gas major
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cop.html
EARNINGS: 7-25-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up Tuesday as COP tested lower and then rebounded to the top of the handle. Like the volume surge and ready to move in as it makes the break higher. To recap: Nicely formed 7 week cup base that used the 90 day SMA (78.78) on the low as support. This is the first base since the mid-May breakout from a long 19 month trading range. It has plenty of basing behind it to provide a great foundation for a new run higher, and this is just the first base after that break higher. Looking for volume to increase as COP makes the break higher. It will likely form a handle at some point, but this is a nicely formed base giving us a good entry point.
Volume: 8.413M Avg Volume: 12.772M
BUY POINT: $83.95 Volume=15M Target=$96.50 Stop=$81.11
POSITION: COP AP - Jan. $80c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cop.html
Play Date: 09/01/2007
MM (Metal Management--$46.47; +0.32; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mm.html
EARNINGS: 8-2-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Toying with the breakout and us as well the past couple of sessions, tapping at the buy point then backing off. Just more formation in the handle, shaking out the weak holders and setting MM up for the breakout. Just waiting for the move on some solid volume to jump in. To recap: MM is working on a nice little handle to an 8 week base that is part of a larger 14 week pattern. Strong run Q4 2006 and through May, then this nicely formed base to set the foundation for the next breakout and run higher. Volume jumped last Friday, a 'get ready' spike. Money flow is soaring. MM looks ready to lead once more; just need another high volume move to get it going.
Volume: 164.1K Avg Volume: 325.761K
BUY POINT: $47.45 Volume=400K Target=$54.45 Stop=$45.88
POSITION: MM AM - Jan. $45c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mm.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 09/10/2007
FTK (Flotek Industries--$37.43; +1.41; no options): Pumps and flow equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ftk.html
EARNINGS: 8-2-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Bounced off the 18 day EMA but no volume Tuesday. Looking for just a bit more trade to start the play. Looks solid. To recap: FTK made us some good money on its last run and now it is testing, holding the 18 day EMA (35.75) the past two sessions. Broke out from a 7 week base on some strong trade the last week of August, and this is its first test. Looking for the bounce higher to move back in.
Volume: 210.1K Avg Volume: 504.277K
BUY POINT: $37.55 Volume=550K Target=$44.95 Stop=$34.92
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ftk.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/08/2007
BCSI (Blue Coat Systems--$78.05; +1.86; optionable): Network, PC security
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcsi.html
EARNINGS: 8-22-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Moved up through the 10 day EMA but volume was lower, though still well above average after a week of high volume. If it can continue the move we will look at just moving in and riding some rebound momentum. To recap: BCSI made us a ton of money on its last run, gapping up in late April from a 6 week base and surging higher on strong trade. It started to come back and we closed out our positions, but now it has faded to near support at the 18 day EMA (72.60) and bounced off that level on Friday, posting a nice gain. It stalled at the 10 day EMA (76.53), however, as it tried to move on through. Still looks very strong and we are looking to move in as it breaks higher through the 10 day on some strong volume.
Volume: 1.179M Avg Volume: 1.035M
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher (orig. $77.11) Volume=1.8M Target=$92.75 Stop=$72.48
POSITION: IYU AP - Jan. $80c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcsi.html
Play Date: 09/06/2007
FCX (Freeport McMoran--$91.97; +2.90; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-25-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume bumped up near average Tuesday as FCX bumped the breakout point. Really like the action and ready to move in as it shows us the breakout. To recap: After a month and a half of basing, metals are firming up for another run higher. FCX made a strong run May to July after the breakout from a 12 month base and this is a test of that run. Volume has picked up as it has recovered, approaching average Thursday. Looks ready to resume its run and we are ready to move in as it continues higher, clearing the neckline in its base.
Volume: 7.693M Avg Volume: 10.652M
BUY POINT: $92.15 Volume=12M Target=$107.00 Stop=$87.88
POSITION: FCX AS - Jan. $95c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fcx.html
Play Date: 09/08/2007
PDE (Pride International--$36.47; +0.08; optionable): Oil and gas drilling, exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pde.html
EARNINGS: 8-2-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still setting up nicely, taping the 90 day MA on the intraday low and rebounding to close flat on rising volume. Nice shakeout and rebound is setting up the breakout. Just going to be patient and let it make the break higher for us and then we move in. To recap: Nice action to end the week, working laterally Thursday and Friday on low volume after an excellent break higher to start the month. That completed a 5 week cup base that formed a reverse head and shoulders at the bottom (seeing a lot of reverse H&S in the market, a good sign for gains ahead). Indeed, the move higher last week was the breakout from that pattern and now it is moving to the second stage, the cup with handle. May take a couple more days to complete the lateral move, but we are going to be ready when it makes the next move higher and shows us the next breakout.
Volume: 1.789M Avg Volume: 2.613M
BUY POINT: $37.31 Volume=3.4M Target=$42.95 Stop=$35.89
POSITION: PDE AG - Jan. $35c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pde.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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