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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
New Post-Splits Plays:
Play Date: 09/15/2007
SJR (Shaw Communications--$24.15; +0.48; no options): CATV systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sjr.html
EARNINGS: 10-18-07
STATUS: Ascending base. SJR made a higher low at the 50 day EMA (22.64) to start the week and rebounded nicely to close it out. No massive volume surge to end the week on that move, but solid price gains and money flow is racing ahead of price, paving the way for the break higher and a run to a new all-time high. Showing excellent strength and we are willing to move in on this break higher even moving into the FOMC meeting.
Volume: 322.7K Avg Volume: 452.248K
BUY POINT: $24.38 Volume=650K Target=$28.95 Stop=$23.04
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sjr.html
Play Date: 09/15/2007
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$36.36; +1.22; optionable): Advanced position products for government and commercial users worldwide
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
EARNINGS: 10-31-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Taking another look at TRMB as it has continued to set up for the move higher after a strong surge to start August after an excellent earnings report. It moved into a 6 week test of that move, and the past week volume started higher as TRMB held the 50 day EMA (34.83). Friday that volume surged as TRMB did the same off the 50 day EMA. Nice action, and with money flow moving higher ahead of price TRMB is locked and loaded to make the move higher. Another consistent leader with ties to the global economy and is looking excellent as it makes its next upside break.
Volume: 1.254M Avg Volume: 837.683K
BUY POINT: $36.57 Volume=900K Target=$42.68 Stop=$35.05
POSITION: TUH AG - Jan. $35c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trmb.html
Some strong leader plays with the right connections:
Play Date: 09/15/2007
CF (CF Industries--$64.04; +0.95; optionable): Agricultural chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cf.html
EARNINGS: 10-30-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CF is working on a three week handle to its 10 week base that has formed after CF rallied to a new high following the June and July rally from a prior base breakout. Strong runner in the second half of 2006 and first half of 2007, and it needed a good base to consolidate the gains and set the stage for a new breakout and run. This base appears to be doing the job and we are going to be patient and let it show us the breakout move on nicely rising trade. It enjoys top flight earnings growth rates as well, and that combined with the pattern is what leads to solid gains.
Volume: 834.3K Avg Volume: 1.526M
BUY POINT: $65.05 Volume=2.3M Target=$77.95 Stop=$61.77
POSITION: CF AM - Jan. $65c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cf.html
Play Date: 09/15/2007
CNH (CNH Global--$53.69; -0.03; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnh.html
EARNINGS: 10-22-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. When stocks recovered from the selling the reverse head and shoulders was a common pattern. After breaking higher the stocks have formed the current type of base, setting up the next stage of breakout and run higher. CNH rallied up to form the right side of its 10 week base, and now it is moving laterally on very low trade, shaking out the weaker holders and setting up the breakout move. These kind of patterns are well-positioned for the Fed announcement: if they get the news they want they breakout and we move in. If they don't we wait and see if they deliver the breakout at another time. Another stock with top-flight earnings growth rates to go with the pattern and tied to the global economy as well.
Volume: 227.7K Avg Volume: 403.158K
BUY POINT: $55.05 Volume=605K Target=$65.95 Stop=$52.11
POSITION: CNH LH - Dec. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cnh.html
Play Date: 09/15/2007
EXM (Excel Maritime Carriers--$45.75; +0.65; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exm.html
EARNINGS: 8-13-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Strong volume as EXM broke out from a 6 week double bottom with handle in late August and rallied nicely. It peaked at 49.20 and then started to test back, falling on sharply higher volume Thursday. Friday it sold further, but after tapping near the 18 day EMA (42.84) on the low it rebounded to post a gain. Volume was lower and below average, but the action on the heels of the higher volume selling was very positive. It may test the 18 day a bit more, but we like what we see on this first test of the breakout, and we are looking to move in as it completes the test and rebounds higher. Excellent earnings growth rates and tied to the global economy with its shipping operations.
Volume: 514.6K Avg Volume: 586.92K
BUY POINT: $46.35 Volume=750K Target=$55.95 Stop=$43.32
POSITION: EXM LI - Dec. $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/exm.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Tentative 10-17-07
AMX: Forecast 10-23-07
ATW: Researching date
BG: Forecast 10-17-07 or 10-206-07
BHP: Forecast 10-23-07
BIDU: Tentative 10-30-07
BLUD: Forecast 9-28-07
CELG: Forecast 10-25-07
CMG: Tentatively date is 10-30-07
CNQ: Forecast 11-1-07
COP: Potential on 10-24-07
CVX: Forecast 10-24-07
DO: Forecast 10-22-07 or 10-26-07
FCN: Forecast 10-10-07
FLIR: Forecast 10-25-07
GPRO: Forecast tentatively 10-31-07, Halloween; trick or treat?
HRS: Forecast 10-24 or 10-26-07
IBM: Forecast 10-16-07
JEC: Forecast 11-6-07
MM: Forecast 10-16-07
OII: Forecast 10-30-07
PCU: Forecast 10-27-07
SII: Forecast 10-22 or 10-23-07
UA: Forecast 10-30-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 09/15/2007
CMTL (Comtech Telecom--$46.97; +0.17; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmtl.html
EARNINGS: 9-19-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another strong stock that moved to a new all-time high in July and slipped into the current 11 week base during the market selling, using the selling to its advantage, consolidating the gains and setting up the foundation for a new break higher. Nice quiet action that is going largely ignored, but there were some nice strong volume spikes to start the month as CMTL jumped higher and formed the right side of its base. Now things have quieted down as it works laterally, letting the 10 day EMA (45.82) catch up with its move. That is often what sets off the next run higher.
Volume: 255.286K Avg Volume: 460.327K
BUY POINT: $48.05 Volume=690K Target=$55.45 Stop=$45.69
POSITION: CQH AI - Jan. $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmtl.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 09/13/2007
AMX (America Movil--$60.95; -0.27; optionable): Wireless telecom, Latin America
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Held steady Friday as AMX remains poised for the breakout move. Another stock that has ties outside the US. To recap: Taking another look at AMX as it has recovered the 50 day EMA and is moving up toward the early September high (62). Good action in its 10 week pattern; just needs some volume to send it to the breakout and run to a new all-time high.
Volume: 3.87M Avg Volume: 5.938M
BUY POINT: $61.89 Volume=9M Target=$70.95 Stop=$59.55
POSITION: AMX AL - Jan. $60c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amx.html
Play Date: 09/13/2007
CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill--$105.74; +0.16; optionable): Mexican style fast food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmg.html
EARNINGS: 10-31-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Still perched on the 10 day EMA, ready to breakout from its nicely formed base. It is a US customer base but we like how it is at a point it is either going to show us a breakout or not and we can have a very easy decision tree. To recap: Very low volume the past three weeks as CMG sets up a solid 6 week pattern formed using the 18 day EMA (102) as support. Strong money flow is leading higher as CMG makes higher lows below a constant top near 105. Squeezing it from below and it is likely to squirt out like a watermelon seed when it breaks out. Or maybe like a pepper seed; not sure what the Mexican food equivalent is. In any event, like the pattern and the earnings growth, and the fact it is under institutional accumulation.
Volume: 289.5K Avg Volume: 531.33K
BUY POINT: $105.89 Volume=787K Target=$119.45 Stop=$101.89
POSITION: CMG AA - Jan. $105c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmg.html
Play Date: 09/13/2007
PCU (Southern Copper--$110.17; +1.44; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcu.html
EARNINGS: 10-27-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Gapped lower with the market Friday but reobounded nicely for a gain though volume remained slack. An excellent set up for the breakout move to come. To recap: PCU is working on the right shoulder to its 7 week base, rising to the neckline this week and tapping it Thursday on the high. May take a few more sessions to work up to the breakout, but it is positioned to do that and we will just wait for it to show us the move.
Volume: 1.241M Avg Volume: 2.388M
BUY POINT: $110.72 Volume=3M Target=$129.95 Stop=$106.32
POSITION: PCU AB - Jan. $110c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcu.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 09/12/2007
JKHY (Jack Henry & Assoc.--$26.57; -0.57; optionable): Outsourced data processing for banks, financial institutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jkhy.html
EARNINGS: 8-21-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After that strong Wednesday and Thursday s price surge on solid trade JKHY came back to test on Friday on some lower trade. That is what we wanted, and now we want to see it hold at the 10 day EMA (26.39) and rebound to continue the breakout move. Gives us a very nice entry point. To recap: Strong volume the past three sessions, really strong, as JKHY tested the 50 day EMA (25.73) and then raced higher right to the breakout point on Wednesday. Strong money flow is leading the way higher as JKHY looks for a 7 year high. Excellent action and it is good to see JKHY back in action again and ready to run.
Volume: 746.191K Avg Volume: 654.006K
BUY POINT: $27.08 Volume=650K Target=$31.95 Stop=$25.69
POSITION: JKQ LE - Dec. $25c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jkhy.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/13/2007
DRYS (Dryships--$70.42; -0.03; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drys.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-21-07
STATUS: Test breakout/18 day EMA. Gapped a bit lower Friday but rebounded off the 18 day EMA to close flat. Excellent hold at the 18 day on Friday after the higher volume Thursday selling, and we are looking for DRYS to make its next move off of this test of near support that is consolidating the breakout move. To recap: DRYS gapped higher in mid-August, moving out of a short 5 week double bottom. It rallied nicely through Tuesday, and then started the current pullback to test that move. Thursday it tapped the 18 day EMA (68.67) on the low and rebounded to recoup its losses. Strong volume shows some heavy selling, but we like that it bounced; someone with deep pockets was buying. Looking for the bounce to continue and give us the buy point. Really like moving in after the first test of a breakout.
Volume: 1.528M Avg Volume: 1.523M
BUY POINT: $71.72 Volume=2.2M Target=$85.95 Stop=$68.42
POSITION: DQR AN - Jan. $70c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/drys.html
Play Date: 09/08/2007
PDE (Pride International--$36.12; -0.18; optionable): Oil and gas drilling, exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pde.html
EARNINGS: 8-2-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another nice test in the handle, tapping several layers of support on the low and rebounding to close flat. Excellent money flow is rising ahead of the price even as it makes this test. That keeps the likelihood of a break higher high. Just looking for volume to jump as it makes the move. To recap: Nice action to end the week, working laterally Thursday and Friday on low volume after an excellent break higher to start the month. That is putting the finishing touches on the 8 week cup with handle base that formed a reverse head and shoulders at the bottom (seeing a lot of reverse H&S in the market, a good sign for gains ahead). Indeed, the move higher last week was the breakout from that pattern and now it is moving to the second stage, the cup with handle. May take a couple more days to complete the lateral move, but we are going to be ready when it makes the next move higher and shows us the next breakout.
Volume: 1.882M Avg Volume: 2.645M
BUY POINT: $37.31 Volume=3.4M Target=$42.95 Stop=$35.89
POSITION: PDE AG - Jan. $35c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pde.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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