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Begin part 2 of 3
NOTE: PART 2 PRECEDES PART 1 THIS EVENING.
CONTINUING PLAYS TABLE
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LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAPL 08/21 PreAnn 138.41 -0.40 131.45 149.95 28M 45M 139.94
Current. Apple tried to move above 141, rising those still below average volume, but it was unable to hold the move and closed modestly lower. It continues working latterly above the 10 day EMA, but if it does not rise ahead of FOMC we will close some options.
AMX 09/13 Rev HS 60.65 -0.30 61.89 70.95 4M 9M 59.55
Buy Not Hit. Continues its lateral move on low-volume, holding the
90 day as an AA in a tight range. Set up will deliver
the move, and we have the luxury of waiting on this
one through the FOMC meeting.
ANSS 08/18 Test BO 33.96 -0.22 33.25 39.44 544K 865K 33.65
Current. A second doji over the 10-day EMA as the stock pauses
after the strong move higher last week. Still a solid
uptrend, and in decent shape to move into the FOMC meeting.
ANST 09/06 Cup hdl 31.59 +0.28 30.68 35.35 191K 450K 30.77
Modest rebound off the 10-day EMA test on very low
trade. Not the strongest positioning ahead of the
FOMC, & all in a bit more upside heading into the meeting and it is worth taking the position off the table.
APH 09/11 Cup hdl 37.21 -0.10 37.89 43.95 526K 1.4M 36.65
Buy Not Issued. Nice tight doji over the 10-day EMA on low volume as
APH sets up well for the breakout. We can let it ride
through the FOMC meeting and see whether or not it
gives us the breakout.
ATW 09/10 Test BO 75.78 -2.08 78.44 91.95 442K 800K 76.54
Current. Sold back to 18 day EMA on rising though below avg volume. We were not inclined to close ATW on this action given the strength in oil prices, & likelihood that energy stocks will be the next to rebound, particularly if the Fed disappoints.
BCSI 09/08 Test 18 82.63 -1.14 80.21 95.75 574K 1.8M 81.35
Current. Took a breather on very low volume after the excellent
move higher last week. It is reached the level of
the prior high & we want to keep a tight leash on it
after the FOMC meeting.
BG 09/10 Cup hdl 96.60 -0.45 96.54 109.75 366K 1.4M 95.87
Current. Nice quiet and the low average volume action Monday,
as BG continues to test back from that solid move higher.
No issues with letting it run through the FOMC meeting.
BHP 09/06 Asc Bse 64.44 -1.50 65.44 78.95 1.6M 5.9M 64.05
Current. Eased back a bit further to close at the 10-day EMA
on very low volume. A stock tied to the global expansion,
so content to let it work for us through the FOMC meeting,
as it makes this low-volume test.
BIDU 09/08 Test BO 252.89 +18.01 216.98 254.90 6.7M 5.5M 246.25
Current.
BIDU 08/25 DB hdl 252.89 +18.01 210.50 254.90 6.7M 4M 246.25
Current. Impressive gap higher and lined up side on strong volume
as BIDU runs out of control. The move was enough to
make CNBC's Dylan Rattigan exclaim "Holy crap."
BIIB 08/02 Test BO 64.50 -0.92 58.08 66.75 3.5M 8.5M 65.55
Current. Still testing the 18 day EMA as BIIB tries to test
near support and continued its strong run higher.
Do not want to let it close below that 18 day level
(63.65).
BLUD 08/16 Cup hdl 34.60 -0.92 34.04 39.95 357K 1.4M 34.34
Current. After a strong run last week, it turned lower, though
still on below average volume. It took BLUD a while
to get this move going, & we don't want to let it close
below 34.
CELG 07/28 Rev HS 67.75 -1.26 61.10 69.95 3.2M 5.5M 66.78
Current. Had to sell back some after a huge two weeks of upside,
but still managed to tap the 10-day EMA on the low
and a rebound to cut its losses. Still very strong
& willing to let it run through the FOMC meeting.
CF 09/15 Cup hdl 65.71 +1.67 65.05 77.95 1M 2.3M 61.77
Buy Not Issued. A nice break higher on rising trade, though it closed
off of its intraday high. Given the FOMC meeting,
& the so-so volume, we decided to wait to see the outcome
of the Fed meeting and how it reacts before we enter.
CMED 08/25 Dbl btm 39.70 +1.11 34.17 42.45 1.7M 1.2M 37.92
Target Hit. After a scorching run higher last week, particularly
on Friday, CMED gapped higher once more on strong volume.
When he cannot move much further we took part of the
very nice 15.8% stock, & 62% option gain ($420/contract).
CMED 07/21 Test BO 39.70 +1.11 35.26 41.95 1.7M 896K 37.92
Target Hit. After a scorching run higher last week, particularly
on Friday, CMED gapped higher once more on strong volume.
When he cannot move much further we took part of the
very nice 13% stock, &57% option gain ($240 per contract).
CMG 09/13 Asc Bse 108.63 +2.89 105.89 119.45 408K 787K 101.89
Buy Not Issued. We thought about this one all session, as CNG ran higher on rising, though still below average volume. We decided to pass and see how it handles FOMC meeting since there are consumer issues tied to this one. If it holds up after, it is a buy.
CMTL 09/15 PreAnn 46.10 -0.87 48.05 55.45 208K 690K 45.69
Buy Not Hit. Continued working on the handle to its base, undercutting the 10 day EMA on the intraday low, but rebounding to close above that level. Another stock we can afford to be patient with & see how it responds to the FOMC meeting.
CNH 09/15 Cup hdl 53.55 -0.14 55.05 65.95 187K 605K 52.11
Buy Not Issued. Bounced higher, but with the low trade, it cannot clear
55 and fell that close flat. Still a solid pattern,
& we can wait for the FOMC meeting to make our decision
on this one.
CNQ 09/08 PreAnn 74.91 -0.68 71.11 81.95 1.1M 2.4M 73.48
Current. A modest pullback on very low trade following the scorching
move higher last week. Energy took the day off once
more, and this time. See into you did as well. Still
very strong, eh?
COP 08/30 Cup 84.73 -0.54 84.44 96.95 7.2M 15M 82.95
Current. Very nice lady, easy, low volume action as COP tests
back, forming a handle to its excellent nine week cup
base. After this pullback is over in the energy sector, it will
be ready to blast higher towards 90 once more.
CPHD 08/16 Test BO 19.99 -0.22 18.72 22.48 427K 1.2M 19.55
Current. The second day of the pullback after the last bounce
off of the 10-day EMA. Volume was higher, but CPHD
is still very solid in its uptrend. Letting it run
into the FOMC meeting.
CROX 08/30 Cup hdl 56.78 -1.13 60.11 72.00 2.6M 7.5M 56.22
Current. Closed lower, though on very light trade as CRO eggs continues to move laterally along the 18 day EMA. Tough call, ahead of the FOMC, & if it does not improve into the announcement we will look to close some positions.
CROX 08/15 Test 50 56.78 -1.13 53.97 65.95 2.6M 7.5M 54.92
Current.
CTRP 07/11 Test BO 45.18 -0.36 42.88 49.98 451K 425K 43.98
Current. CTRP still looks very good and it's latest rebound
and break to a new high, but we had to close the rest
of the September options on this play.
CTRP 05/26 Test BO 45.18 -0.36 38.19 44.98 451K 425K 43.98
Target Hit. Used to move higher after the lower open to take the
rest of the September options off the table for a solid
119% gain ($430/contract).
CVX 08/29 DB hdl 90.93 +0.28 88.19 99.95 7.7M 18M 88.84
Current. Gapped lower but recovered to post a modest gain though
on a continued low volume. Another one of the major
oil stocks that is rested and is ready to move higher
as the energy sector bounces back after this recent pause.
DE 09/08 Test BO 139.43 +1.50 137.51 157.50 2.7M 4M 136.38
Current. A surge in volume up to average as DE bucked the market
and posted a nice gain. Strong stock tied to the international
expansion, & riding it into the FOMC meeting. Quite
solid action in an otherwise weak market.
DE 08/18 Dbl btm 139.43 +1.50 129.88 149.95 2.7M 4M 136.38
Current.
DO 09/08 Cup hdl 106.67 -1.71 107.04 124.95 1.4M 4M 106.21
Current. Struggled all session, but bounced back from it toward the 18 day EMA to close near the 10-day EMA. Volume was modestly higher, but still well below average. Expecting DO to bounce sharply once more following this energy sector pause.
DO 08/29 DB hdl 106.67 -1.71 105.35 120.95 1.4M 3M 106.21
Current.
DRYS 09/13 Test 18 68.95 -1.47 71.72 85.95 990K 2.2M 68.42
Current. Still testing, closing at the 18 day EMA on very low
volume. Has been very strong, & letting them make
this test, but don't want it to close below the Friday
low (68.26).
DVA 09/11 PreAnn 61.77 -0.29 61.65 69.95 533K 800K 59.88
Current. Tested lower intraday following last week's big surge
upside, but rebounded nicely to close flat as DVA continues
to test that strong breakout, refusing to give up its
gains.
ENR 09/05 Rev HS 109.55 -0.35 109.61 125.95 327K 870K 107.78
Current. Close flat on very low trade after pushing through
110 on the high. No real issues for ENR as it approaches
the FOMC meeting.
EXM 09/15 Test BO 44.73 -1.02 46.35 55.95 323K 750K 43.32
Buy Not Issued. Thought about moving higher with a modest gap, but slipped back down, wiping away the Friday he gain. Still in very good position to complete the test and resume the breakout move. All we do is watch the response to the FOMC meeting.
FCX 09/06 Rev HS 97.07 -0.63 92.85 107.00 8.2M 12M 95.48
Current. Rallied nicely higher once more up to 99.60, but could
not hold move and ended the day lower. A strong run
up to the July peak, & FCX may come back some more
ahead of or after the FOMC meeting. In force to stop loss.
FLIR 09/04 Asc Bse 50.23 -0.68 50.35 59.95 394K 1.2M 47.98
Current. Volume edged higher as FLIR continues to work higher,
trying to find some flooding along the 18 day EMA.
A solid pattern, it needs to show us something, &
we won't let it fall on us following the FOMC statement.
FTI 08/07 PreSplt 55.74 +0.46 47.18 54.22 1.5M 800K 54.95
Current. After tremendous surge the past three weeks, FTI showed
the mother of all dojis Monday, reversing a three-point
gain for a very modest pop. Moved up to stop loss
and will enforce it given the reversal session.
FTK 09/10 Test BO 40.85 +1.62 38.32 45.45 580K 550K 38.12
Current. Excellent volume and a nice break to a new all-time
high as FTK clears the four-week pattern with a top
just below 36. No complaints about letting this one
run to the FOMC meeting.
FTO 09/12 Cup hdl 44.18 -0.25 43.84 49.95 2M 3M 42.98
Current. A second day of low-volume lateral movement following
the nice break higher last week. Given the nice breakout,
no issues leading this one run in to the FOMC meeting.
GLDN 09/05 DB hdl 71.15 -1.96 73.36 83.95 290K 589K 70.65
Current. Gapped higher, but couldn't keep a nice Friday move
alive, giving that most of gain on rising volume.
One of the few foreign stocks that could not extend
its move from Friday.
GPRO 08/28 PreAnn 64.10 -0.80 64.35 73.95 159K 750K 63.38
Current. The only thing that kept us in GPRO today was the higher
volume upside move on Friday. This is one that we
will look at closing ahead of the FOMC.
GRMN 08/25 Rev HS 104.53 -1.83 104.40 120.95 2.5M 4M 104.88
Current. Volume was still below average, but rose from last week as GRMN closed below the 10 day EMA (105.14). Still a solid uptrend, and we're willing to let it ride into the FOMC meeting, but we won't let it close below the 18 day EMA (103.38).
GRMN 08/15 Test 18 104.53 -1.83 90.35 111.95 2.5M 4.2M 104.88
Current.
HMSY 08/15 Test BO 24.07 -0.72 25.18 30.45 428K 444K 24.97
Exited. Too darn volatile as HMSY, sold off once more on lower,
though still above average volume. A rebounded into
the close, & we used that to close the position.
IBM 08/25 Test 50 114.52 -0.61 114.77 130.00 5M 10M 115.38
Current. IBM was something of a pain today, gapping lower enclosing
below the 18 day EMA (115). It is vulnerable here,
and it is one we are looking to close before the FOMC
meeting, preferably after a modest rise into the result.
JKHY 09/12 Rev HS 26.55 -0.02 27.08 31.95 626K 650K 25.69
Buy Not Issued. Nice doji at the 10 day EMA Monday on rising volume.
Setting up nicely for a break higher after the FOMC
meeting. We have the luxury of waiting until then to act.
MM 09/01 Cup 45.34 -0.38 47.25 54.45 210K 400K 45.88
Buy Not Issued. Getting tired of waiting for M. M. to show us the move, but this is exactly the type of action that lulls you to sleep ahead of the breakout. Given its ties to the global expansion, we can wait and see how it responds to the FOMC meeting result.
MON 09/08 Test BO 75.44 +1.94 71.15 81.95 7.4M 4.5M 73.65
Current. Let this position run for us as MON gapped higher and
raised guidance. Closed well off the high, but willing
to let this position run more as this is the kind of
news that generates more upside.
MON 08/07 Test 50 75.44 +1.94 67.60 75.95 7.4M 5M 73.65
Target Hit. Took part of 12.8% stock gain and $580/contract option gain (96%) as MON gapped higher.
NOV 09/10 PreSplt 132.44 -1.17 133.94 148.95 1.8M 3.5M 129.88
Current. Very low volume fade back to the 10 day EMA as NOV
tests the excellent break higher from last week. Global
ties to this one so letting it run through the FOMC
meeting.
OIH 08/27 Rev HS 182.73 -1.67 179.78 194.95 5.7M 11M 181.39
Current. Go back to the 10-day EMA Monday but should a nice
tight doji as it did so. Still forming a nice handle,
and after this pause in the energy sector we are looking
for OIH to make a new breakout higher.
PCU 09/13 Rev HS 109.16 -1.01 110.72 129.95 1.5M 3M 106.32
Buy Not Issued. Surged higher earlier in the session, but then reversed to close lower. Following remained a very low, and we're still looking for a nice strong breakout from PCU. We have the luxury of waiting to see what happens after the FOMC meeting.
PDE 09/08 Cup hdl 35.15 -0.97 37.31 42.95 1.8M 3.4M 35.89
Buy Not Hit. PDE showed a little pride as it sold through the 50
day EMA on the close. Volume was low, but we don't
like the price action. We will drop for now and see
how it forms up.
POT 09/01 Rev HS 89.35 +0.34 90.55 107.75 2.5M 4.9M 87.21
Buy Not Issued. POT continues its lateral move below 90 as the 10 day EMA continues rising below it. That builds pressure from below, but we can wait through the FOMC meeting to see if POT acts favorably. Has a global ties, so we expect it to make a break.
RIG 09/11 PreAnn 104.90 -1.26 108.88 124.95 3.3M 10M 105.42
Buy Not Hit. Slipped through the 50 day SMA on the close. Since
we are not in us when we can sit back and wait for
it to make the break higher after the FOMC meeting.
RIMM 08/25 Test BO 86.27 -0.99 79.76 99.95 10M 30M 83.95
Current. Lost a little bit of ground on Monday, but on lower volume. As our IMM pauses after a nice break higher. Can sell back some after the FOMC decision, but one of the stronger tech stocks & willing to let it continue to work for us.
RIO 09/11 PreAnn 26.92 -0.33 27.55 32.75 13M 1.5M 25.95
Current. Low-volume, but gapped lower on us to post modest loss. It may come back to test further toward the 10 day EMA (26.10), but given its global ties and market leadership we are willing to let it do so as it continues to set up for the next break higher.
SJR 09/15 Asc Bse 24.18 +0.03 24.38 28.95 317K 650K 23.04
Buy Not Issued. Tried to make the move early, but a volatile session,
with SJR closing flat on continued below average volume.
May form a handle here, but we'll just let it show
us whether it is come move.
SLB 09/08 Test BO 99.63 -0.74 99.11 113.95 5.6M 12M 97.75
Current. Pretty decent surge higher up to 101.86, but energy sector was not in the mood, & SLB faded back for a modest loss on light volume. Still, very nice consolidation action, & looking for the break higher once this energy sector pause ends.
SLB 08/20 Test 50 99.63 -0.74 92.72 110.00 5.6M 12M 97.75
Current.
SU 09/11 Cup hdl 95.88 -0.44 94.45 107.95 1.6M 3.6M 94.65
Current. Gapped higher, but it was not the day for energy as
SU sold back from modest loss and lower volume. May
form something of a handle here above 95, and we're
willing to let it run through the FOMC meeting.
TRMB 09/15 Test 50 36.68 +0.32 36.57 42.68 766K 900K 35.05
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher, but after running up to 37.19 on the high, it faded back into the close. We thought hard about entering, but decided to wait and see how it reacts on Tuesday. Still a very solid stock, & it gives us the move, we will move in.
UA 08/25 Rev HS 61.47 -0.73 67.24 76.95 595K 2.2M 64.22
Buy Not Hit.
UA 08/16 Test BO 61.47 -0.73 63.76 76.95 595K 1.8M 63.88
Current. Gapped lower then sold down to the 50 day EMA on the
session low. Rebounded to cut much of the loss. Given
it is above 50 day EMA, we're willing to let it run
into the FOMC result, but that is purely a judgment call.
VIP 09/05 Test BO 26.64 -0.34 25.50 30.45 2.4M 4M 25.95
Current. Soul back to tap the 10 day EMA on intraday low, then
rebounded to recoup most of the loss. Low-volume so
no dumping, & this is one we will let it run through
the FOMC decision given its foreign ties.
WYNN 08/16 Test BO 142.23 +2.37 120.89 139.95 1.6M 2.9M 139.35
Continues running higher without a pause, but volume
did fade somewhat Monday. It may rise further into
the FOMC decision, & if it does It would be worth taking
some again off of the table as it makes that move.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AMD 08/20 Put 12.84 +0.15 11.85 10.78 15M 30M 11.89
Current. Modest, low-volume gap higher back bruise in the 18
day EMA. Inclined to let this one run through the
FOMC meeting, given its weak technical position.
FRPT 08/14 Put 15.91 -0.35 15.74 13.55 319K 3.2M 15.64
Current. Continues to weaken though volume remains extremely low as FRPT fades from the pan and 18 day EMA. We will let it run through the FOMC meeting, & look to see if it falls further from there toward 15. We have to close it out by the end of the week.
End part 2 of 3
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