us stock market, stock split

Begin Part 3 of 4

BEST PLAYS:

MARKET FAVORITES:
1) BRCM - Testing broken support
2) PG - Nice consolidation
3) MANU - Bounced back but looking to fail
4) XRX - Still looking good

BRCM (Broadcom--$39.20; +2.28; optionable): Semiconductor.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
STATUS: Put. Double topped and threatening to break the last low. Thursday BRCM gave up the 200 day MVA (38.78) after initially making a small bounce from that level. Friday BRCM touched 36.45, which is just below its December low when it successfully tested the 200 day. From that low BRCM managed to push back up and close over the 200 day, but volume was down a bit from the selling (16.93 million; average 14.7 million), and BRCM looks to be in a continuing downtrend, with strong resistance in the 41-43 range from its short-term and 50 day MVA's. We could get a bit more of a push upward with the Nasdaq, but we are watching for BRCM to fall back again, and in market weakness give us a move down to 30.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: after a test of 42 to 43, a move below 41 (10 day MVA) with continued above average volume. Breakdown: A drop back through 38, a put play.
POSITION: March $45 puts to buy (RCQ OI).

PG (Proctor & Gamble--$82.09; -0.04; optionable): Conglomerates
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pg.html
STATUS: Upside. PG has been making its steady way up with bounces along the 50 day MVA. In December it broke over its prior 2001 highs, on a solid bounce, and after a muted move from the 50 day in January the stock made another bounce at the end of that month, gapping way up and making a nice move that reached up on an intraday spike to 84.22. Since that move PG has edged back on decreasing volume, forming a nice handle-type consolidation over the short-term MVA's (tapped the 18 day at 80.65 at its low Friday; 10 day at 81.40). Nice pattern, and looking for a bounce. Target: 95.
BUY POINT: Bounce: Over 83 on above average volume (2.94 million; Friday 2.69 million). Stop: 78. New high: 84.32 on volume of 4 million. Stop: 78.42 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or April $80 calls to buy (PG DP)

MANU (Manugistics--$16.60; +1.49; optionable): Application Software.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/manu.html
STATUS: Put. After a dip all the way down to 13.16 intraday Thursday, MANU climbed back up Friday to challenge the former support broken this week, the 50 day MVA (16.48). MANU had made a nice run in November-December, hitting over 22, but peeled back steadily to the 50 day, consolidating a bit over that level before breaking through. While the rebound Thursday was on solid volume, the bounce back up from the low Friday was on decreased volume of 3.25 million (average 3.21 million), and it faces additional resistance just ahead at the 18 day (16.93) and January down trendline at 17.25. Looking for the move to fail and for MANU to head back down, perhaps after another attempt to surge over resistance. Target: 12.
BUY POINT: A test of 17 and then a turn back down, taking positions at 16 on increased volume.
POSITION: March $20 puts to buy (ZUQ OD).

XRX (Xerox--$10.63; +0.11; optionable): Business Equipment.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xrx.html
STATUS: Upside. Dipped down intraday Friday to 10.15, but managed to rally back and close over the 18 day (10.50) for a loose 'hammer' doji. Volume continued to be low, as it has been in the handle, coming in at 3.77 million (average 7.28 million). The handle high is 11.45, with the left side high from May at 11.35. Looking for the breakout. Target: 13.25.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 11.55 on volume of 10.9 million. Stop: 10.74 (7%). Aggressive: Over 11 on volume of 8 million or better. Stop: 10.32.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $10 calls to buy (XRX DB).

SNPS - Reached down to 46 and then bounced, but volume was not that strong, and although it could continue up, the 10 day is resistance at 50.63, and the momentum is still down.
MCHP - Not wanting to make the big drop, but the bounce Friday was on weak volume.
PSFT - Made a move back up off the doji, but closed right at the 10 day MVA (31.87). Looking for that or the 18 day (33.47) to push it back down.
BEAS - Hit down close to 14 Thursday, and made the bounce Friday, although it was a weak one and it faces the 10 day MVA just ahead at 16.87.

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT BEST PLAYS
1) DIAN - Still in the Pennant
2) BMS - Making a move
3) YUM - Doji over support
4) CTAS - Testing the 50 day
5) GTK - High volume on the doji
6) RARE - Tapped the 50 day and recovered
7) STU - A bit of a move
8) INVN - Forecast for Tuesday

DIAN (Dianon Systems--$57.04; -0.63; optionable): Forecast to announce a split with earnings on 2-21-02 before the open.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dian.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that DIAN has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 10-25-00 at which no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Has formed a pennant. After falling hard in early January from recent highs at 62, DIAN has held support at the 50 day MVA (55.01). It took a bounce in early January followed by two more in the last two weeks, but on the most recent move it is trying to hold its short-term MVA's (18 day 57.02). It sold back some Friday but volume was quite low (119,700; average 257,000), and if DIAN can hold support here we can look for a breakout from the pennant. Target: 69.
BUY POINT: The breakout is a move over 59.50 with volume of 342,000, with stock and/or May $55 calls to buy (UID EK).

BMS (Bemis--$51.88; +1.16; optionable): Working on a date. Earnings were 1-24-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bms.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that BMS has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Good move Friday. BMS has been consolidating over the 10 day MVA (50.60), drifting up on strong volume (we would prefer a drift back on low volume in a consolidation like this one). However, BMS jumped up over recent highs Friday, moving over the aggressive buy point with solid, increased volume of 355,900 (average 235,600). Ahead is the all-time high at 52.47, which is the left side high of its little saucer pattern (similar in configuration to a reverse head and shoulders). BMS has been on a steady upward trend from levels below 25 in October 2000, making a strong breakout from a reverse head and shoulders in November. Shows excellent buying and relative strength. On a breakout, targeting 60.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 52.57 on continued strong volume (minimum 350,000). Stop: 48.90 (7%; 50 day at 49.30).
POSITION: Stock and/or April $50 calls to buy (BMS DJ).

YUM (Tricon Global--$54.50; 0.00; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 2-12-02 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yum.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that YUM has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-17-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Still looking good on the test of its recent move. One of many restaurants that have shown a lot of strength (although several are starting to fall back now), YUM made a strong break from its shallow double bottom with handle recently, helped by good sales news. It pulled laterally after the initial run, but dipped back the last few sessions, catching support at the 18 day MVA (53.96) by showing a 'hammer' doji Friday. The hammer is a signal of a change in direction, although stronger volume makes it a better indicator (still pretty weak Friday at 498,700; average 743,000). This was right at the level we were looking at for a pullback, so we continue to look for YUM to hold and give us another move as it goes toward the forecast. Target: 62. The stock is in a very large base dating back to early 1999 with highs at 70.
BUY POINT: Over the recent high: 56.20 on above average volume. Stop: 52.50. Aggressive: Over 55.10 on above average volume. Stop: 51.34.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $50 calls to buy (YUM DJ).

CTAS ($49.71; +0.55; optionable): Announces earnings on 3-14-02 before the open, but they typically announce with a board meeting. There was such a meeting in late January, but they also could announce in late February when they announce anticipated earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctas.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 1-18-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $54. The annual shareholder meeting was on 10-25-00 at which time additional shares were authorized.
STATUS: Still in the lateral consolidation that is lengthening beyond the healthy extent of a handle. However, CTAS reached back and tapped the 50 day MVA at its low of 48.11, moving back from that level and closing back over its short-term MVA's (18 day at 49.37) with increased volume behind it (887,000; average 835,800). Higher volume on a 50 day MVA test is not bad, and we will see if this bounce can be a prelude to finally getting a breakout. CTAS' current consolidation is a handle to a cup dating back to July (high 52.60), and that cup is the right side of a double bottom (right side did not undercut left), with a high from December 2000 at 64. Target: 60.
BUY POINT: 51.32 on volume of 1.25 million. Stop: 47.73.
POSITION: Stock and/or May $45 calls to buy (NQQ EI).

GTK (Gtech Holdings--$49.10; -0.39; optionable): Working on a new date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gtk.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that GTK has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 7-9-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: GTK really made an impressive move from its 50 day MVA (then 42, now 45.88), hitting 51.48 before pulling back on low volume. It has caught support at its 10 ay MVA (49.27; 18 day at 48.33), showing a doji there Friday on big volume (814,200; average 405,400). The high volume doji indicates a bounce, and we would continue to target 55 on that move and on existing positions. GTK has made a solid trend up from 20 over the past year, and has an upper channel trendline (June, July and December highs) ahead at 50.50, but on a strong move we are looking for the stock to take out that line and continue its steeper trend toward the target. The fact that it tested the 50 day MVA on its last pullback and this is the first test of the 18 day MVA since then makes us comfortable with this play.
BUY POINT: Over 50.50 on continued strong volume. Stop: 47.50.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $47.50 calls to buy (GTK FW).

RARE (Rare Hospitality--$25.25; -0.15; optionable): Restaurants. Forecast to announce a split on 2-19-02 with earnings. The company has not confirmed the date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rare.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 7-26-00 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was 29.50. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-14-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: After giving up its 18 day MVA (25.73) Thursday, a level that had been support in its handle, RARE tested all the way down to its 50 day MVA (24.16) at its low, but managed to surge back off of that level to close with a 'hammer' doji. Volume was sharply up on the bounce to 389,900 (average 251,600), something you like to see on a test and rebound from the 50 day. We will see if this test shook out some sellers, and look for RARE to make a move back up in the handle and break out. It was due a pullback to the 50 day after bouncing up the 18 day four times. Target: 32
BUY POINT: Breakout: 27.15 on volume of 375,000 or higher (there is an intraday spike as the handle first formed at 27.50). Stop: 25.25 (7%). Aggressive: Over 26 on continued strong volume. 24.27. (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or May $22.50 calls to buy (QRH EX).

STU (Student Loan Corp--$88.71; +1.46): Researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stu.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that STU has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-16-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Broke from its little pennant pattern Friday, but the move to a new high was not that strong, coming on volume of 12,200 (average 14,000). We were looking for a lot more strength for new positions, and this move does not inspire visions of a run to 100, at least not yet. We have targeted 90 for existing positions on this nice, steady run up the short-term MVA's (10 day and 18 day at 86.77 and 85.54), and will protect positions as the stock proceeds from here. As long as it holds the 18 day MVA we will continue to ride at least some positions (perhaps taking at least some money off the table on reaching the target or showing signs of a drop), wary of a drop through that support for a test of the 50 day (82). A little further up and it will need to take a breather.

INVN (Invision Technologies--$37.48; -1.27; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 2-12-02 after the close with earnings or more likely on 2-28-02 with a special meeting to increase authorized shares.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/invn.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that INVN has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-21-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. A special meeting is scheduled for 2-28-02 at 9:30 PST. The purpose of the special meeting is to increase authorized shares. The company has sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: We were looking for an orderly test back, but INVN kept creeping up on low volume, and that produced the strong drop we saw Thursday. It tapped all the way down to 35.60 Friday, recovering to close with a doji just under the 18 day MVA (37.84) on low volume (2.16 million; average 2.92 million). We will see if it can hold going toward earnings, but we could see a test of the 50 day at 31.85. If it can hold it could perhaps form a handle to its small cup (dating from the mid-December high of 47.09), but we do not want to force a play at the moment going into earnings. If it can hold up, with an announcement we could get an aggressive play up toward the high.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: After holding here, a move over 40 on above average volume. Stop: 37.29 (7%).
PLAY: Stock and/or April $35 calls to buy (FQQ DG).

PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab these as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
1) BSYS - A new play!

BSYS (Bisys Group--$61.56; +1.60; optionable): Business software. Splits 2:1 effective 2-25-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsys.html
STATUS: Broke out of a reverse head and shoulders in November, but the moved maxed out at 66.13, turning over and gradually dropping in January. It gave up its 50 day MVA (60.61) late last month, recovering but unable to clear it 18 day MVA. After again dropping through the 50 day and making a higher low, BSYS has started a move back up, and Friday took out its 50 day and 18 day MVA's (18 day at 61.26). Not much volume behind the move (down to 461,300 Friday; average 573,000), but with pre-splits we see volatility that makes volume a factor that is not as crucial. We will see if BSYS can continue the move, targeting the recent high (66).
PLAY: Aggressive: A move over 62, with stock and/or March $60 calls to buy (BQY CL).

CONTINUING CANDIDATES BEST PLAYS:
1) HB - Testing on very low volume
2) ACS - Looking for yet another put
3) GOSHA - Tightening and extending in the pattern
4) APPB - Bounced from 50 day
5) TGIC - Trying, but not quite breaking free
6) RYL - Still acting right

HB (Hillenbrand--$59.79; +0.19; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hb.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that HB has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: After its great move on earnings, HB has come back to test the move, which took it out of a ragged cup dating back to June, and over the December high at 59.15. It is holding that high on the test, as well as its 10 day MVA (58.80), Friday dipping to 59.02 but puling back up to close. Volume was way down at 95,000 (average 139,000). Not bad action, with lower volume profit-taking holding the prior high. Looking for HB to hold 59 and continue its strength and head toward our target of 69.
BUY POINT: After holding 59, a move back over 60.25 on above average volume. Stop: 56.13 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or June $55 calls to buy (HB FK - below 100 open interest).

ACS (Affiliated Computer--$93.62; +2.54; optionable): Software.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acs.html
STATUS: ACS has given us some nice puts plays recently, and after finding support for the second time recently at 90 (one of its up trendlines), it bounced Friday. The move took it up to its 10 day MVA (93.67), moving with lower volume of 729,000 (average 693,000). It has another up trendline with its 18 day MVA (95.87), and we could get a more of push to that level, but we expect a failure near that level and drop back, targeting 88, or even its 200 day MVA at 85.27.
BUY POINT: After a further move higher to test the trendline at 95, a drop back through 94 on above average volume.
POSITION: March $105 puts to buy (ACS OA - no open interest).

End Part 3 of 4

us stock market
stock split