stock split, stock research

Begin Part 4 of 4

GOSHA (Oshkosh--$42.06; +0.48; no options): Did not announce but held up in its nice pattern.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gosha.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 on 8-10-98 at a stock price of $20. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-4-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Little change, and GOSHA at this point could either decide to breakout with a bang or turn over. Volume dipped back to low levels Friday as the stock pushed up slightly from its short-term MVA's (18 day at 41.40). GOSHA broke from a 5-month cup pattern in November, and has since struggled at the 42-43 level (high is 43), forming an ascending wedge that has now extended into a lateral pattern between 40-42 for the past two weeks. The 50 day MVA is below at 39.84), but we continue to look for a breakout. Good money flow and relative strength. Target: 50.
BUY POINT: 43.10 on volume of 61,000 (12,500 Friday; average 44,500). Stop: 40.08 (7%).
POSITION: Stock only.

APPB (Applebee's--$35.77; -0.23; optionable): Restaurant.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appb.html
STATUS: APPB made a very nice breakout recently from a little double bottom, but is has steadily pulled back to test the breakout the past week. It was shaping up nicely, with the steady drop coming on decreasing volume, but Thursday it closed just below the former pattern center. That was a concern, but APPB showed some good action Friday after selling back some more to its 50 day MVA (34.76), bouncing back from that level with strong volume behind the move (594,700; average 400,000). We will see if the upward momentum from the bounce can continue. Still targeting 42.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A bounce back over 37 on continued strong volume. Stop: 34.97. Over the high: 38.22 on continued strong volume. Stop: 35.54.
PLAY: Stock and/or May $35 calls to buy (AQB EG).

TGIC (Triad Guaranty--$42.07; +0.47; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tgic.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 9-18-97 at a stock price of $28.25. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-10-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: TGIC finally made the break from its cup with handle, but the volume was not there on the initial move. It has picked up volume now, and Friday kept the move going with a big volume spike up to 120,300 (average 42,200). It is right at the edge of our breakout buy window (5%). If it gives us a bit of a pullback, we will see if it can hold up over 40 (10 day MVA at 40.31), which level was also strong June-August resistance in the left side of the cup pattern. Target is 47.
BUY POINT: A buy up to 42.20 on continued strong volume - however, we are close to that level, so a successful test and bounce could be the more prudent play. Stop: 39.25.
POSITION: Stock only.

RYL (Ryland Group--$76.47; +0.86; optionable): Residential construction.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/ryl.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that RYL has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-25-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: RYL is holding nicely on the test of its recent highs at 75. Friday it showed a loose doji over that level and its 18 day MVA (75.41). Looking solid overall, as RYL broke from a cup with handle in December, and started the most recent run after a test of the 50 day MVA (then 65, now 70.36), hitting a high of 81.62 with nice volume behind it. Looking for a bounce, and still targeting 85 with current positions.
BUY POINT: Needs to hold here, and we can look at a move over 78 on increased volume (402,000; average 385,000). Stop: 73.
POSITION: Stock and/or April $70 calls to buy (RYL DN).

POST SPLITS BEST PLAYS:
1) VAR - Nice test

VAR (Varian Medical--$38.62; +0.21; optionable): Split 2:1 on 1-16-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/var.html
STATUS: VAR is testing its breakout, which came last week from a 'flying w' with handle formed since November. The test is taking the form of a handle to a cup (again with a 'flying w' configuration), formed since June. The handle looks good, with VAR on Friday showing a slight push back up from the 10 day MVA (38.20). It has been a nice, gradually descending, low volume handle, which is just what we like. Looking for a bounce back up for a breakout. Target: We were looking at 43 on the recent move, but on a breakout we will adjust to 46.
PLAY: Bounce: A move over 39.50 on increased volume (306,700; Friday 389,400). Stop: 37. Breakout: 40.03 on volume of 460,000. Stop: 37.23 (7%). Stock and/or May $35 calls to buy (VAR EG). Stop: 37.11.

****
WATCHLISTS: Many of these have made such good moves lately we have put them here to look for the next entry point.

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS WATCHLIST: NDN, MRBK, LSTR, AROW, IFIN (4/16), and WLP.

BRL ($64.50; +0.72): After giving up our initial target level of 65 Wednesday, we are now looking at 60, and after BRL hit 62.15 Thursday at its low, it followed with another loose doji, retaking only a little bit of ground. We are protecting profits from a strong bounce, but on a continued weak move up we can ride remaining positions down.

EXPD ($58.43; +1.02): Working on a date. Dipped through its 50 day MVA (56.65) Friday, but rebounded to close up on increased volume of 418,800 (average 375,000). Still has to deal with the short-term MVA's (58.70), with the recent high at 61.30.

DRI ($40.17; +0.19): We are working on a date. Nice move last week off of the 18 day MVA (38.97) to a new high of 41.30, and now DRI looks decent as it consolidates over that support again. Friday DRI hit up to 41 before retreating for a doji, and although it looks pretty good, a play from here is aggressive as this would be a fifth bounce from the 18 day on its run after the breakout, and four is usually all you get before a drop back to lower support. It hit the aggressive buy point Friday, but volume was down. On a move over 41 on volume of 1 million, and stock and/or April $37.50 calls to buy (DRI DU).

PRE SPLITS WATCHLIST:

SONC ($36.90; +0.40): Splits 3:2 effective 2-11-02. Splitting Monday, and SONC is trying to hold its 18 day (36.61). It tapped near the 50 day (35.46), but recovered. We will see if it can hold up for post-split action.

MGAM ($39.15; +4.41): Splits 3:2 on February 12. Got the bounce from the 50 day (35.46), and it was strong. We were looking for a move up to clear out remaining positions, but it moved back over the short-term MVA's (10 day at 36.92). Still, this could be a relief bounce, so we will see if it holds the 50 day. The aggressive can ride positions for a possible continuation of the move, or try new positions on a move over 40, with stock. Could be a very quick play, but it has some power.

BLL ($79.99; +1.01): Splits 2:1 effective February 22. Edging up now as volume declines (169,100; average 263,200), and after a run like we have seen with BLL that is a signal that we could see a drop. Looking at possible support for a consolidation at the 10 day MVA (77.50), although it could visit the 18 day (75.39). If it shows any weakness we are closing out short term trades.

GILD ($66.88; +3.53): Splits 2:1 effective March 8. Has been erratic, Friday bouncing back over its 50 day MVA (66.05, 18 day at 66.21) after falling hard through that level Wednesday. Pre-splits can be volatile, and the aggressive can look for a move up to the highs in its recent range (70). The aggressive can play a move over 67.50, with stock and/or March $60 calls to buy (GDQ CL). The recent high is 71.15, and the high is 73.67.

RSC ($26.85; +0.61): Splits 3:2 effective February 12. Dipped all the way to 23.47 at its low Thursday (50 day MVA at 25.31), rebounding to close. No continuation as the stock did little Friday. We will see if it can hold the 50 day going into the split. The aggressive can play a move over 28 (10 day at 27.74), with stock.

CONTINUING CANDIDATES WATCHLIST: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date. These include BBY, DHR, EDS, ETH, MI, PMI, STJ and THQI.

BBBY ($33.72; +0.66): Has dipped back into a handle to a shallow double bottom (formed since early December). Today it bounced up a bit from the 50 day MVA (32.49), but with below average volume (2.72 million; average 3.23 million). We are still looking at a breakout buy point of 35.05 on volume of 5 million, with stock and/or ay $32.50 calls to buy (BHQ EZ).

EDS ($57.50; -1.50): Gapped down below the target of 57, bouncing back a bit on big volume (10.35 million; average 3.16 million). On more of a bounce will think about taking profits on positions not closed out Friday, although the relief bounce could fail at 59 and dip back to 56.

GNSS ($49.24; +5.17): Made the big drop Thursday and hit our target on the put. Got some upgrades Friday on valuation, and took a bounce, with lower, but continued strong volume (7.96 million; average 2.98 million). Initially had targeted 50, but after the huge drop, we will see if this bounce fails and drops GNSS back toward a new target at the 200 day (39.65). If the bounce continues back over 50, we will take profits and see if it sets up for a new play.

JCI ($82.43; +1.58): Could not hold up in the consolidation, dropping back Thursday on solid volume, but its rebound from the 50 day MVA (79.71) was on weak volume (332,600; average 421,400). We will see if it can hold the 50 day (the 200 day is at 75).

LLL ($102.62; +1.32): Has shown volatility since breaking out of its cup, forming a pennant over its 10 day MVA (100.90). It tested the 10 day today at its low, showing lower volume (532,700; average 547,000), so we will see if it settles a bit here. If it does we will hold positions for a move up, and the aggressive can look at a move over 105 on volume of 900,000, with stock and/or April $100 calls to buy (LLL DT).

PII ($57.50; -0.65): Made a strong move this week but Friday saw PII fail as it reached toward its high (59.92), pulling back from 58.85 as volume picked up even more (273,600; average 117,600). The high volume on the drop points to more of a retreat, but we will see if it can hold the short-term MVA's (18 day at 56.19), and set up again. Recent lows at 52.50 (50 day at 55.04).

TGH ($76.00; -1.23): No announcement on earnings, but Friday the stock hit up to 78.50, dropping back from there to close. Volume was very heavy at 659,600 (average 192,000). We will see if it continues to pull back and consolidate, forming a handle to a cup dating back to early 2001.

THC ($65.20; -0.05): THC's bounce lost steam at the recent high (66.40), pulling back but bouncing off of its 10 day MVA (64.28) Friday. It closed with its second consecutive doji on low volume (1.03 million; average 1.68 million). We will see if it can hold the 10 day, avoiding a drop from a double top.

POST SPLITS WATCHLIST:

CHBS ($29.99; -0.18): Split 3:2 December 13. Had a wild day Thursday, gapping down below our buy point for a put, and rallying back to the 50 day MVA (30.12). It could not make it back through the 50 day Friday, however, showing a doji at that point on low volume (256,500; average 432,700). Looks like it could fail here, and we will continue to look for a drop through 28 on above average volume, with March $35 puts to buy (URH OG).

CHS ($32.04; +0.03): Split 3:2 effective 1-22-02. Showed a doji Friday, still giving the look like it will pull back. Looking for CHS to hold the recent highs at 30.50 (10 day MVA at 30.45) and then continue the move.

HOTT ($21.05; +0.30): Split 3:2 effective February 7. Dropped hard going into the split, but bounced back off the 200 day (19.98) Thursday, but showed a doji Friday under the 50 day (21.16). Volume was much lighter on the attempt at resistance (739,00; average 702,400). Downside is most likely from here, and on a drop through the 200 day with continued strong volume, March $23.38 puts to buy (IHU OX).

SYMC ($34.52; +1.30): Split 2:1 effective February 1. The stock hit 30 but rebounded Thursday to close, but could not break back over the 50 day MVA (34.55), moving up on much lower volume (3.99 million; average 2.7 million) Friday. Still could get a failure here and drop, and on a move through 32.50 on continued strong volume, with March $40 puts to buy (SYQ OH).

XRAY ($33.05; -0.05): Split 3:2 effective February 1. Holding the 50 day (32.69), but now stymied under the short-term MVA's (33.16). Friday it showed a doji on low volume, and for aggressive positions we can look at a move over 33.60 on average or better volume (2.5 million), with stock and/or April $30 calls to buy (RHE DF).

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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