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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/22/2007
CMI (Cummins--$131.54; +1.38; optionable): Engines, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmi.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. CMI made is a lot of money earlier in the year with its stellar run into August. We said we were going to get back in when it set up again, and it did, forming a nice 7 week cup with handle of sorts. Then we just watched as it revved up & charged higher Tuesday right after the FOMC announcement. Good move (for the stock, that is). Of course a good breakout usually leads to a good test, and after a gap higher Wednesday, CMI slipped lower. It moved laterally on very low trade Thursday and Friday, holding the gains as it takes a breather. That is what we like to see. It may take a session or three to complete the pause to consolidate that big Tuesday surge, but when it starts to move back up we are going to start to move in and participate in the rest of the breakout run.
Volume: 1.353M Avg Volume: 2.252M
BUY POINT: $132.32 Volume=2.4M Target=$151.95 Stop=$128.11
POSITION: CDM AG - Jan. $130c (62 delta) or CDM AH - Jan. 4135c (51 delta) &/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmi.html
Play Date: 09/22/2007
DSX (Diana Shipping--$26.77; +1.62; no options): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dsx.html
EARNINGS: Early November
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. It is an interesting juxtaposition what with the domestic truckers and rails really struggling with their stock prices while the shipping lines are making great wake as they move higher. DRYS has been cruising, and it looks as if DSX with its 9 week base just about complete is ready to run again. It put in a nice breakout and run from 2006 to July, and this current base has given it a nice rest and foundation to put together another run. Volume exploded Friday after creeping higher all week as it bottomed for the right shoulder at the 50 day EMA. Ready to start moving in as it continues this break higher.
Volume: 9.365M Avg Volume: 1.258M
BUY POINT: $27.21 Volume=2M Target=$3295.00 Stop=$25.31
POSITION: DSX CE - Mar. $25c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dsx.html
Play Date: 09/22/2007
TEX (Terex--$83.59; +0.95; optionable): heavy equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tex.html
EARNINGS: 10/25/2007
STATUS: Cup with Handle. After a strong run from October, 2006 to July, 2007, TEX needed a base to rest at the foundation for a new higher. It fell to the 200 day EMA, and then rebounded to fade back in September to hold just above that key support level. When the Fed cut interest rates, DEX vaulted higher both Tuesday and Wednesday, rising to be early September high, or the "hump" on that move. If then worked laterally Thursday and Friday, holding above the "hump" and the 90 day EMA, moving on much lower below average volume. A nice tight doji Friday, and we anticipate TEX will bounce sharply higher once more after this nice test of support. We like how it has plenty of room to run before it hits the prior highs in the base.
Volume: 1.344M Avg Volume: 1.64M
BUY POINT: $85.22 Volume=2.4M Target=$99.90 Stop=$82.32
POSITION: TEX AQ - Jan. $85c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tex.html
Play Date: 09/22/2007
TSL (Trina Solar--$51.89; +3.70; optionable): Chinese, solar power products (semiconductors)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsl.html
EARNINGS: 11-22-07
STATUS: Rolling Range. After its IPO in December 2006, and its rally up to 70 on the run after its IPO, TSL has moved in a wide ranging trading range between 70 and 40. It bottomed that began at 40 in late August during that selling, making a small double bottom. At that prior low. It bounced modestly then worked laterally through mid-September. Late last week, it started to come alive with the rest of the solar energy stocks. Volume moved higher, and it moved through the 50 day EMA and a 90 day EMA that acted as resistance in its attempted recovery. With that move, we're looking for TSL to repeat that prior moves it made in its range, i.e., moving up to 70 on this run. Our initial target is a bit more conservative, as there is some resistance near 65. Of course, if it is running well when it reaches that level, we will continue to let it run.
Volume: 3.039M Avg Volume: 1.295M
BUY POINT: $52.32 Volume=1.4M Target=$66.50 Stop=$49.22
POSITION: TSL LJ - Dec. $50c (62 delta) or TSL CK - Mar. $55c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tsl.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 09/22/2007
AAPL (Apple Computer--$144.15; +3.84; no options): iPhones, iPods, iMacs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Ascending base. AAPL disappointed investors early in the month as its new product announcements were overshadowed by a price reduction in the iPhone, a rebate to prior iPhone purchasers, and as more than one commentator has noted, the lack of a split announcement. It held at its 50 day EMA and has since recovered close to the pre-slump prices. Friday it bounced on a good jump in volume up to average, but of course we know that is suspect given the expiration session. Nonetheless, we are hearing that the product sales are through the roof across the line. In the long run, at least with respect to stock performance, it definitely pays to be an innovator as opposed to, say, a copycat as is MSFT (copied/stole the Apple Mac interface, copied other game boxes, copied the iPod, copying the iPhone, and we hear it is coming out with its own version of a Harry Potter story). Looking to buy Apple as it makes its break higher from this 8 week base.
Volume: 40.674M Avg Volume: 39.328M
BUY POINT: $144.78 Volume=4.8M Target=$166.75 Stop=$139.33
POSITION: APV AI - Jan. $145c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aapl.html
Play Date: 09/22/2007
CMED (China Medical Technologies--$39.55; +0.83; optionable): medical instruments & supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmed.html
EARNINGS: 9-27-07
STATUS: Test Breakout. CME exploded out of an eight week cup with handle base. Just over a week back, moving on very strong volume. After peaking on Wednesday, it started to slide back and fell to the 10 day EMA on Thursday, rebounding Friday, showing a nice tight doji over the 10 day EMA. This is the first test of the breakout from that very nicely formed base, and you know, the first test of a breakout is one of our favorite entry points. CME has an excellent long-term base behind it, and this last base here that broke it out is the initial move in what looks to be a series of strong moves higher.
Volume: 816.308K Avg Volume: 773.234K
BUY POINT: $40.11 Volume=765K Target=$47.95 Stop=$38.38
POSITION: QCY AH - Jan. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmed.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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