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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/24/2007
ALXN (Alexion Pharmaceuticals--$65.36; +1.97; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alxn.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice 7 week base is consolidating the late July gap higher (earnings), setting the stage for the next move higher, and that will be a breakout from this base. Volume has been lacking thus far on the move; that will have to improve as it makes its breakout move, and that looks ready to come soon. Very solid base ready to take it to a 7 year high.
Volume: 470.769K Avg Volume: 960.355K
BUY POINT: $66.11 Volume=1.4M Target=$75.95 Stop=$62.77
POSITION: XQN AM - Jan. $65c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/alxn.html
Play Date: 09/24/2007
CROX (Crocs, Inc.--$61.98; +5.12; optionable): Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crox.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Ascending base. CROX is back on track, posting a nice breakout Monday on strong volume, clearing its 8 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (54.27) as support. The move pushed CROX to a new all-time high and we are looking to take positions as it continues the break higher, and then on its test of this breakout move.
Volume: 11.205M Avg Volume: 6.571M
BUY POINT: $62.32 Volume=6.6M Target=$74.95 Stop=$58.89
POSITION: CQJ AT - Jan. $62.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crox.html
Play Date: 09/24/2007
FLIR (Flir Systems--$53.63; -0.93; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
EARNINGS: 10-24-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Looking at FLIR again as it comes back to test the breakout last week from its 9 week ascending base. Volume was not quite there on the break higher so we did not move in. Now it is coming back to test the 10 day EMA (52.62) and then try to resume the move. Very nice action and looking for the full test of the 10 day EMA and then we will pick it up on the bounce. If it does not make the full test but starts back up on rising trade that will be just as good. Solid stock with excellent fundamentals growth to go along with the pattern.
Volume: 515.307K Avg Volume: 833.986K
BUY POINT: $52.88 Volume=1.3M Target=$60.95 Stop=$50.88
POSITION: FFQ AJ - Jan. $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/flir.html
Play Date: 09/24/2007
TLEO (Taleo Corp.--$24.73; +0.70; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tleo.html
EARNINGS: Early November
STATUS: Ascending base. Strong volume Monday as TLEO starts the breakout from its 11 week base formed using the 90 day SMA (21.93) on the lows. It made a higher low than the 90 day last week, and that indicated it had extra strength and ready to make the break. Did that today and money flow is surging as well, paving the way for price to follow. Moved to a new closing high and we are ready to move in as it continues this move. Solid fundamentals to go with the great pattern.
Volume: 570.683K Avg Volume: 244.359K
BUY POINT: $24.95 Volume=250K Target=$28.95 Stop=$23.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tleo.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 09/24/2007
FWLT (Foster Wheeler--$129.28; -1.48; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fwlt.html
EARNINGS: 9-8-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice surge last week let us bank some nice gain, and it has eased back the past three sessions on low trade. Monday it tapped the 10 day EMA (126.92) on the low and started to rebound. First test of the break from its 8 week base, and we love moving in on the first breakout test.
Volume: 1.134M Avg Volume: 2.263M
BUY POINT: $130.11 Volume=2.4M Target=$149.95 Stop=$126.68
POSITION: UFB AX - Jan. $130c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fwlt.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/22/2007
CMED (China Medical Technologies--$39.15; -0.40; optionable): medical instruments & supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmed.html
EARNINGS: 9-27-07
STATUS: Test Breakout. Still in the nice test. It tried to make the rebound off the 10 day EMA test but it faded back as the market turned over in the afternoon. No volume at all to push it. Still looking for the break higher on volume. To recap: CME exploded out of an eight week cup with handle base just over a week back, moving on very strong volume. After peaking on Wednesday, it started to slide back and fell to the 10 day EMA on Thursday, rebounding Friday, showing a nice tight doji over the 10 day EMA. This is the first test of the breakout from that very nicely formed base, and you know, the first test of a breakout is one of our favorite entry points. CME has an excellent long-term base behind it, and this last base here that broke it out is the initial move in what looks to be a series of strong moves higher.
Volume: 699.207K Avg Volume: 773.234K
BUY POINT: $40.11 Volume=765K Target=$47.95 Stop=$38.38
POSITION: QCY AH - Jan. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmed.html
Play Date: 09/22/2007
CMI (Cummins--$128.77; -2.77; optionable): Engines, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmi.html
EARNINGS: 10-25-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Tested back further on Monday, and it looks as if CMI is going to make a full test of the 10 day EMA (126.13) before it rebounds. Nice low volume test and we will pick it off as it makes the rebound. To recap: CMI made is a lot of money earlier in the year with its stellar run into August. We said we were going to get back in when it set up again, and it did, forming a nice 7 week cup with handle of sorts. Then we just watched as it revved up & charged higher Tuesday right after the FOMC announcement. Good move (for the stock, that is). Of course a good breakout usually leads to a good test, and after a gap higher Wednesday, CMI slipped lower. It moved laterally on very low trade Thursday and Friday, holding the gains as it takes a breather. That is what we like to see. It may take a session or three to complete the pause to consolidate that big Tuesday surge, but when it starts to move back up we are going to start to move in and participate in the rest of the breakout run.
Volume: 1.492M Avg Volume: 2.252M
BUY POINT: New: 129.25 (orig. $132.32) Volume=2.4M Target=$151.95 Stop=$128.11
POSITION: CDM AG - Jan. $130c (62 delta) or CDM AH - Jan. 4135c (51 delta) &/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmi.html
Play Date: 09/22/2007
TEX (Terex--$84.45; +0.86; optionable): Heavy equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tex.html
EARNINGS: 10/25/2007
STATUS: Cup with Handle. Volume started to edge higher Monday as TEX tested the 90 day SMA on the low and rebounded for a gain. Looking very ready to be a leader in the next move higher. To recap: After a strong run from October, 2006 to July, 2007, TEX needed a base to rest at the foundation for a new higher. It fell to the 200 day EMA, and then rebounded to fade back in September to hold just above that key support level. When the Fed cut interest rates, DEX vaulted higher both Tuesday and Wednesday, rising to be early September high, or the "hump" on that move. If then worked laterally Thursday and Friday, holding above the "hump" and the 90 day EMA, moving on much lower below average volume. A nice tight doji Friday, and we anticipate TEX will bounce sharply higher once more after this nice test of support. We like how it has plenty of room to run before it hits the prior highs in the base.
Volume: 1.417M Avg Volume: 1.64M
BUY POINT: $85.22 Volume=2.4M Target=$99.90 Stop=$82.32
POSITION: TEX AQ - Jan. $85c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tex.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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